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Messages - agd

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Account #1
Adjusted Net Annualized Return 9.25%

Weighted Average Interest Rate:   21.45%
Weighted Average Age of Portfolio:   37.4 mos
Number of Notes:   2,696

Account #2
Adjusted Net Annualized Return 9.70%

Weighted Average Interest Rate:   21.35%
Weighted Average Age of Portfolio:   18.7 mos
Number of Notes:   8,056

Investors - P / Re: Don't Be Fooled
« on: April 20, 2016, 09:12:21 PM »
Seems like you missed a $1k withdrawal somewhere.  Prosper's return calculation isn't perfect as it doesn't discount delinquent loans, cash drag, & uninvested funds, but it shouldn't be that far off for what you describe.  I've been investing for close to 3.5 years.  Multiple 6 figure accounts with average loan inception age between 6 and 29 months.   I have calculated returns directly from the monthly payment extracts & and get returns very similar to Prosper's calculation (+/- .50%).   

Could you set up your account on NSR and see what they calculate?

Investors - LC / Re: Payment History Data File
« on: March 14, 2014, 07:57:04 PM »
For the last few months its been publicly posted here:

Investors - P / Re: Loans with origination date in December???
« on: November 28, 2013, 03:55:20 PM »
Vintage analysis should be relative to the origination date, correct?  How are these originations any different from any other loan originated in December?

Investors - P / Re: Loans with origination date in December???
« on: November 28, 2013, 12:18:03 PM »
Yes, I'm seeing 41 originations in December.  This is like any other month that ends on a weekend, when they will set originations for the following Monday.  I really don't understand your concern around skewing the vintage results, can you explain?

Investors - P / Re: Cancelled notes: any analysis on those
« on: October 23, 2013, 02:54:03 PM »
No problem.

Prosper keeps the channelcode definitions very close to the vest.  I think its awesome that they've released what they have.  For someone with a marketing background its pretty easy to infer what channels they represent based on the credit skew and the peaky nature of some of the channels.

Investors - P / Re: Cancelled notes: any analysis on those
« on: October 22, 2013, 08:37:51 PM »
I've analyzed this, but was unable to increase my strategy's ROI by a meaningful amount to warrant the increased complexity. 

Some of the drivers that I identified are below.  Any cancellation rate that I reference is based on listings started between 6-1 and 10-1 and divide cancellations by any non-withdrawn application.  The average rate during this time period is 29.5%.

1. applicants with previous prosper loans have a very low cancellation rate. 13.1%
2. channelcode (if you are using the API): 50000/90000 have elevated cancellation rates. 35%/37.3%
3. employmentstatusdescription = 'Other' has elevated cancellation rates. 44.2%

There are a lot of other minor drivers (homeownership/DTI/inquries).

Investors - P / Re: Loan Descriptions Missing
« on: September 20, 2013, 07:55:53 PM »
Even though these listings didn't start until after the change, the listingcreation date from the API denotes that they were created prior to it.  Such listings are very rare just 15 since 9/16.

Here's a view of fractional listings over time.    Until these past couple of days September was very low.  I'm guessing the spike is due to a large direct mail drop and the listing volume will trail off somewhat until the next one. 

We may only see this bonus feeding time on these spikes (maybe it helps them operationally to get a jumpstart on the verification process as they are going from 1MM/day closed to 2MM/day closed).  I don't think these bonus feeding times help the retail investor, and I doubt there's a large effect on conversion rates. 

Year   Month   Days   Listings   Listings Per Day   Listings M-F   Listings Weekend
2013   1   31    1,893     61     72     29
2013   2   28    1,789     63     78     30
2013   3   31    2,564     82     100     45
2013   4   30    2,045     68     78     41
2013   5   31    2,117     68     72     57
2013   6   30    1,964     65     72     52
2013   7   31    2,185     70     76     54
2013   8   31    1,898     61     66     49
2013   9   17    1,124     66     78     38

Investors - P / Re: Prosper's new rating model (FICOŽ 08)
« on: August 30, 2013, 09:53:49 PM »
So does this mean Prosper interest rates will be further reduced in the higher risk notes (D - HR)?  It wasn't that long ago I could find all the HR notes I wanted since there were many borrowers in that class that met my criteria.  The new management changed all that though and those higher risk applicants got assigned a lower risk rate (lower interest rates).  It was probably more fair and more accurate to the borrower, but gone were my 30% returns in that class.  However, with the lower rates, it probably brought a few more borrowers to the platform - there's good and bad to everything.  Lower rates may help to increase the supply of notes on the platform, by attracting more borrowers, but that may also mean fewer lenders attracted to Prosper as investor returns will be lower - not saying that's a bad thing.....  So in a nut shell, more borrowers but lower investor returns.

I did a little research on FICOŽ 08 and found at least one thing in their scoring that may be a little disturbing:

"If you have a single serious delinquency, that is, one account that's gone 90 days past due or more, your FICO 08 credit score won't hurt as much if you have several other accounts that are in good standing."

So not paying your bills now is no big deal??  It's a big deal to me if I'm the lender on the other side of that borrower, 90 days late is serious.  In my opinion that should be reflected in a persons credit score.  But with FICOŽ 08 it's no big deal anymore and that borrower will have a higher FICO score now.  I don't like it...

What does everyone think................

I would guess that the main driver of underwriting will likely remain their own custom risk score.  I've analyzed the FICO score & the Scorex score in relation to Prosper's custom risk score, and they both add very little added discriminatory power in predicting losses.  FICO is slightly better than Scorex, but only very marginally so.  The area it may be more heavily used in setting rates is likely in relation to competitiveness as more of Prosper's competitors are more likely to use FICO.   In my opinion the real reason to use FICO is that it is a risk metric that more people speak; helping the retail investor better understand the risk level of the posting, and allowing institutional investors to control risk levels across multiple platforms.

Investors - P / Re: Weekend Investing on Propser, some questions.
« on: July 23, 2013, 07:57:50 PM »
I'm pretty sure whole loan availability is only M-F.  Any listings that occur during the weekend are Fractional.

Investors - P / Re: "Expired" Notes on Prosper
« on: July 04, 2013, 01:19:57 PM »
The API :)

Investors - P / Re: "Expired" Notes on Prosper
« on: July 03, 2013, 11:48:07 PM »
For listings initiated between 4-20 and 6-10 65% of the listings ultimately funded on Prosper (62% for listings starting on the fractional platform).  28% typically end up in this "cancelled" status, 0.4% end up expired, and 6% end up withdrawn.  I do know that a fair amount of the borrowers that cancel/withdraw do end up re-listing. 

The term "Funded By Other Prosper Lenders" is probably from a legacy explanation from Prosper 1.0 where lender's bids could get outbid by other lenders bidding a lower rate.

Investors - P / Re: Prosper Loan Volume wayyyyyyy Down
« on: May 24, 2013, 12:27:23 PM »
I use the API. 

Unfortunately I dont believe is being updated any more.

You can always use the Prosper site: 

Investors - P / Re: Prosper Loan Volume wayyyyyyy Down
« on: May 23, 2013, 07:50:08 PM »

I was just looking at this yesterday.  May 1-May 23 is at $19.6MM; which means it should end up at $25-$27MM for the month.  Where are you seeing $8-$9Mil?

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