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Messages - Fred

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16
Foliofn - LC / Re: how often is folio inventory CSV file updated?
« on: October 25, 2016, 10:20:18 PM »
Would you mind sharing what your program does?  Does it auto buy? 

Yes, my program does auto buy.

It downloads the latest 500,000+ notes from Folio. runs risk-reward analysis on each, chooses some candidate notes to buy, and checks collection logs.  If nothing is problematic, submits purchase orders, then logouts.

It also does auto sell -- finding which of my notes are good to sell based on today's Folio prices.

This is all I do now in LC;  I do not buy notes from the primary market anymore.

17
Foliofn - LC / Re: how often is folio inventory CSV file updated?
« on: October 25, 2016, 03:59:05 AM »
Suppose I write software that downloads this file and searches for notes to buy.  How often do I need to download this sucker?

Do they update it on a regular schedule, or whenever somebody posts a note for sale, or what?

Have you considered using Folio's "Download Search Results" link https://www.lendingclub.com/foliofn/notesRawData.action?

This link is more real-time; all Folio notes matching your search criteria will be included.  No noticeable delays.

My Folio program runs every 2-hr.

18
Investors - LC / Re: LC raises rates 10/2016 and updates loss forecast #s
« on: October 25, 2016, 03:49:36 AM »
I think what's driving this is fraud. The grifters have figured out how to get a loan from LC and they are binging.

Any data to back this up?  Or, is this just an assumption?

19
Investors - LC / Re: Back Testing Traded Notes
« on: October 25, 2016, 01:49:23 AM »
I have never used an automated tool to purchase my loans and I have never used an automated tool to sell my loans.

You seem to have a proven method of selling notes, why not automate to amplify the volume (and profit)?

20
Perhaps there is a credit-arbitrage opportunity here for you?

Take the 7% 35K from Wells Fargo, and lend it at 9.78% to people like you (FICO > 800) on Prosper?
 

21
Investors - LC / Re: Back Testing Traded Notes
« on: October 24, 2016, 12:59:04 PM »
Have considered loading your traded notes and "the info I need to do a vlookup from LC's website" into DB tables, and then do SQL joins to your heart's content?

23
For context, I'm an accredited investor, and my markeplace lending investments are into six figures.

Same here, six figures account with more than 20,000 notes.

I still don't think professionally-managed funds are advantageous.  I don't claim to know everything about P2P loans, but I can safely say I know about P2P as much as some of the asset managers.  I am not willing to pay those who are not smarter than me.

Besides, since I wrote my own automated P2P investment program, everything is fast, deterministic and disciplined for me.  Not all of the P2P asset managers are as disciplined . ;-(

24
Investors - LC / Re: Is this normal or does my luck just suck
« on: September 25, 2016, 10:35:02 PM »
I only buy on folio now and have had success so far with the parameters that I use.

If you can keep this Folio buying strategy up, your NAR should improve soon enough.  Good luck!

25
Investors - LC / Re: Recoveries of Charge-Offs
« on: August 28, 2016, 11:19:45 PM »
The market for sub 600 FICO, 31+ day lates where a payment has not been made for over 100 days, is basically a 88-91% markdown.  Let me know if you have any anecdotes that refute that.

I'll let you prove the non-anecdotes -- there has never been a trade for sub 600 FICO, 31+ day lates where a payment has been made for over 100 days, with a 88-91% markdown.

26
Investors - LC / Re: Recoveries of Charge-Offs
« on: August 28, 2016, 11:15:38 PM »
We need folio transaction data.

Yes, this would be ideal.

However, some of us Folio traders cannot afford to wait until LC/Folio release this data, and need to resort to models based on "hints" -- such as Hidden Markov Models.

27
Investors - LC / Re: Recoveries of Charge-Offs
« on: August 28, 2016, 11:09:48 PM »
Funny  .... You are trying to refute a "generic" argument even prefaced with underlined "general" with an anecdotal transaction. I have seen 31+ day delinquent notes even selling for  premium and it means nothing.

Ha ha ..., seems like you took this the wrong way.

Of course your statement can be true, but it could also be misleading to Folio newbies.  People could have lost money if they followed your advice.  Not a good thing for them and for you.

28
Investors - LC / Re: Recoveries of Charge-Offs
« on: August 28, 2016, 11:03:21 PM »
Is there a way to automate this?

Yes, there are ways to automate Folio trading.

29
Investors - LC / Re: Recoveries of Charge-Offs
« on: August 28, 2016, 08:07:05 PM »
In general, you have much better chance of selling 31+ days delinquent note at ~86+% discount, about the point when post sale gains approach zero, not accounting for time value of money.

I can show you my 31+ late note that got sold at only 67% discount this past week -- noteid=71485595.

If you guys want to sell at 90% discount, go right ahead.  However, as a trader, I'd ask why?  It's only showing your lack of understanding of how the market works.

30
Investors - LC / Re: Recoveries of Charge-Offs
« on: August 28, 2016, 01:24:13 PM »
Below is a table of Folio price statistics this morning:



As you can see, you don't have to go all the way to 90% discount to sell your "Late (31-120 days) - A - FLAT - 60" note.  A discount of 58% is enough to make it more desirable than its peers.

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