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Messages - SeattleSun

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16
Investors - LC / Re: liquidation strategy on folio
« on: June 01, 2016, 01:04:07 AM »
.
OK stand by for a dumb question.

I was looking at selling out my Prosper notes as I now have an opportunity that just beta tested at 1/2% per week.

I have 1291 notes and started in 2012 most are $100 notes.

Dec-13-2012   B   740-759      Current   60   19   $42.72   18.82%
Feb-04-2013   B   800-819      Current   60   21   $45.60   17.47%

1) haven't LC/prosper lending rates been falling since these notes were issued,
2) maybe these FICO have gone up since being issues, but 700 was my floor to lend to.

Q.  Should stuff like this be easy to sell?

TIA

Clueless in Seattle.

17
Investors - LC / Re: Worst Month Yet
« on: May 16, 2016, 08:42:25 PM »
Sorry latest data on top. 

Did this subject go away due to all the other news?

Both mine and my daughters are getting worse.

Me from 44% to 45% and her's from 44% to 48%.

SS

EDIT: I am only a Prosper investor.

(code)
Code: [Select]
Daughter   Charge Off       Dad      Charge Off
           as % of Interest          as % of Interest

Sum         48%                      45%
========================================= 
Apr          60%              Apr       44%
Mar         78%              Feb      77%
Feb         49%              Feb      33%
Jan '16     45%             Jan '16  74%
Dec '15     58%            Dec '15  83%
Nov         63%             Nov      86%
Oct         60%             Oct      43%
Sep         72%             Sep      26%
Aug         64%             Aug      63%
Jul         26%             Jul       9%
Jun         29%             Jun      19%
May         53%             May      44%
Apr         28%             Apr      19%
Mar         50%             Mar      74%
Feb         14%             Feb      11%
Jan '15     20%             Jan '15  24%


[/font]
[/quote]

18
Investors - P / Re: What grade notes are you buying these days?
« on: March 30, 2016, 11:56:18 PM »
I have stopped buying on Prosper and withdrawing cash as repayments come in. There are just not enough loans for retail lenders on Prosper platform for a decent size portfolio.

I have encountered the same issue of not enough loans.  I currently have 1300 active loans and last year increased my "bet size" from $100 to $200 to counter the problem of not enough loans that meet my criteria.  Assume 1000+ loans is good enough diversification. 


And to the original question about 50% Bs and maybe 25% Cs and 25% As.  Probably too conservative but .....


19

$55k seems like a lot to transfer at one time to me, because with my filters that would take a long time to invest, leaving cash idle.  I do it in bursts.  Depending on your filters, you might have a different experience.

Jenn


1)  Was thinking of using Lending Robot or other 3rd party vendor to get the funds invested as quickly as possible.

2)  Plus I wanted the $1,000 bonus money for >$50k new IRA account with LC.  I like free money.    :) :) :)

http://www.lendacademy.com/401k-ira-rollover-lending-club-prosper/

20
.
New feature article on Lend Academy
.
How to Rollover a 401k or IRA to Lending Club and Prosper
http://www.lendacademy.com/401k-ira-rollover-lending-club-prosper/


Therefore this feature article is very timely and relevant because I was just considering a "Direct Transfer" of a "Roth IRA" to Lending Club.

Just looking for any advise on potential pit falls, etc.

A $55k "Roth IRA" will be coming out of TDAmeritrade via a "direct transfer".

 Seems Lending Club’s preferred custodian "Self Directed IRA Services, Inc."  Any comments on these guys?  TIA

Also seem a new IRA account bonus is in effect now.

All previous accounts have been with Prosper so this will be our first LC account.

TIA

SeattleSun










21
Investors - LC / Re: Worst Month Yet
« on: March 04, 2016, 12:06:25 AM »
Update Feb 2016
charged off as % of interest
Dad 33%
Daughter 33%

Plus thanks for that "Title: Behavioral Finance: Key Concepts - Mental Accounting"  I would never occurred to me that someone would do that.  lol




(code)
Code: [Select]
Daughter   Charge Off       Dad      Charge Off
           as % of Interest          as % of Interest
Jan '16     45%             Jan '16  74%
Dec '15     58%             Dec '15  83%
Nov         63%             Nov      86%
Oct         60%             Oct      43%
Sep         72%             Sep      26%
Aug         64%             Aug      63%
Jul         26%             Jul       9%
Jun         29%             Jun      19%
May         53%             May      44%
Apr         28%             Apr      19%
Mar         50%             Mar      74%
Feb         14%             Feb      11%
Jan '15     20%             Jan '15  24%
Sum         44%                      44%

[/font]

22
Investors - LC / Re: Worst Month Yet
« on: February 23, 2016, 11:44:17 AM »

And that's exactly why I said I'm still generally happy.  I'm making decent return in a relatively low inflation environment.

But I am seeing a change after several years of relatively consistent returns. And most of the change is due to higher defaults, not due to decreasing rates. I had been losing about 1/3 of my interest to defaults....it's been close to 1/2 recently.  Since losses offset capital gains and not interest earned, I need to re-evaluate my strategy.

I'm not panicking or running for the door....I was merely pointing out the changes I've seen.  Inflation has been low and relatively constant for years now, so I'm not sure of the relevance of your real rate of return comment?  It's not as if inflation has dramatically decreased so that my lower nominal returns represent an equal or improving real return.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk


First let me say my question was NOT directed to/at BrusierB but just a general question of "Why don't people (you) use the real rate of return when posting?"  But the question did pop into my head again when I read BrusierB post.

Here is an example I "cherry picked" from BrusierB stated returns of 2011 vs 2015.

Code: [Select]
2011    10.35% - 3.25% = 7.10% real rate of return
2015     9.75% - 0.00% = 9.75% real rate of return

And note that the CPI(U) when from a high of 4% in 2011 to a low of 0% in 2015 during the five full years that BrusierB was investing in P2P.  IMO a move of that size needs to be taken into account.

Note: I personally always use the "headline" or CPI(U) because I use a lot of "energy". 




23
Investors - LC / Re: Worst Month Yet
« on: February 22, 2016, 08:23:18 PM »
I calculate XIRR annually and YTD for current years.  Last year was my lowest year ever and YTD this year is lower than my last year's full year.


I have always felt that the REAL RATE OF RETURN (Nominal - Inflation) is what it is all about yet I never seen any mention of it on very smart forums like this one.

I mean shouldn't BruiserB be interested in the real rate of return.

SS

PS  And I don't want to get into a conversation about how inflation is calculated, etc.

24
Investors - LC / Re: Worst Month Yet
« on: February 22, 2016, 08:18:44 PM »

Lending Club and Prosper Interest Rates, Loss Curves and Loan Performance

With recent interest rate changes and economic uncertainty, we look at the latest Lending Club and Prosper loss curves.

FEBRUARY 22, 2016
BY RYAN LICHTENWALD


http://www.lendacademy.com/lending-club-and-prosper-interest-rates-loss-curves-and-loan-performance/




25
Investors - LC / Re: Worst Month Yet
« on: February 17, 2016, 08:42:59 PM »

=================================================================================================
I think it is great that you both have the common interest and she likes being a little ahead of dad. Good stuff.

You have quite a few notes for a great diversification.  Have you considered using LendingRobot and doing custom rules (filters) similar to what you like? You can also use their "expected return" rule which is like their "credit model" to help you pick notes and then add on some other criteria that you feel strongly about. Often "credit models" take into account a lot of relationships between criteria (i.e. if public records > 0 but occured a long time ago then still "ok"). You can use my referral link in my signature line (extra $5K for each of us of investing) or simple go directly to their site. No big deal either way to me. (I was a computer operator as a college job using punch cards ;) )
[/quote]

=================================================================================================

LA Scott,


First, the only P2P accounts my family has are Prosper.  I was watching them for a few years and after Prosper 1.0 crashed and burned and after the Great Recession I worked up the nerve to open an account in the fall of 2012.  The Fed's ZIRP was a big motivator.  In hind sight I might have been better off with Lending Club but it is what it is.

I was very excited when Bryce Mason showed up with P2P in 2013(?) but it took forever for him to get around to Prosper and I lost interest.  I recently noted he has moved on.

Lately I  have been encouraged by the consolidation to only FOUR third party tools space for retail investors.  I like to let "natural selection" work and let the "market" reduce my number of options.  Assuming the strong survive.

NSR Invest
LendingRobot
BlueVestment
PeerCube

http://www.lendacademy.com/the-state-of-the-retail-investor-in-p2p-lending/

Recently I have looked at Lending Robot and went so far in their registration process to get on their "mailing list".  I was thinking of opening one of their small accounts (Less $5k) with the intent of running a trial.

Since Lending Robot is here in the Emerald City I also plotted their offices on Google Maps with the intention of making an unannounced visit when I was in the neighborhood.

I remember  :)   when doing DD on Prosper trying to penetrate their facility in SFran only to be rebuffed.  But I did manage to ambush a woman employee in the elevator and got lots of good info.  LOL

Last week I did click on all the links in your signature line and looked around.

I was considering starting a sting here with the intent of trying to collect the pros and cons of each of the remaining four providers.   Does anyone know if that thread already exists?  I have never seen it.

SeattleSun

26
Investors - LC / Re: Worst Month Yet
« on: February 17, 2016, 08:15:44 PM »
F & G grade charge offs seems to have taken off since May this year. Overall 2015 charge-offs are within the median +/- 95% CI for past 8 years on annual basis. The charge offs bottomed out in 2012 and have been rising since then. We are back to 2010 level in 2015.

January, March, October and December tend to be outside median +/- 95% CI on monthly basis.



http://www.lendacademy.com/forum/index.php?topic=3551.msg31436#msg31436


AnilG,

Great chart, thanks!

Can you post similar chart for PROSPER? 

TIA

SeattleSun

27
Investors - LC / Re: Worst Month Yet
« on: February 17, 2016, 12:15:27 PM »
Not sure of how many notes you have but it appears random.
There are months were hers is higher.
Oddly it evens out with 44% (average).

Re: I have 50% B's, 25% A's and 25% C's.  She has about equal number of B's and C's.
Given you both have about 50% Bs ... perhaps you have more C's defaulting but less A's.  Still this is too general just to go on grades.

I have 1287 active loans out of a total of 2182 total loans.  My "seasoned return" is 8.41%

My daughter has 1050 active loans out of a total of 1627 total loans.  Her "seasoned return" is 10.15%.

Our normal "bet size" is $100 and keeping fully invested manually is challenging.  Yes I have done all those loans by hand over the last 5 years.

(She likes to point out her return is higher than mine)


LA Scott - And thanks for help with the "code".  The last code I wrote was in Fortran and it was on punch cards.  LOL


28
Investors - LC / Re: Worst Month Yet
« on: February 17, 2016, 01:46:12 AM »
Thanks lascott!

I was just going to ask for help with that post formatting.

Could you please explain what the "code tag" is?

Is it one of those small buttons above?

TIA

29
Investors - LC / Re: Worst Month Yet
« on: February 17, 2016, 12:57:25 AM »
The data below is for both myself and my daughter who both have Prosper accounts and use similar "conservative" loan selection criteria. 

Two of which are "Debt Consolation Only" and to "never lend to anyone who has ever had a delinquency". 

I have 50% B's, 25% A's and 25% C's.  She has about equal number of B's and C's. 

I have a charge off "spike" in Nov, Dec and Jan 16 and she doesn't?

Edit: We both have the same 13 month average charge off as % of Interest of 44%.



Daughter   Charge Off       Dad      Charge Off
       as % of Interest         as % of Interest
Jan '16      45%         Jan '16   74%
Dec '15      58%         Dec '15   83%
Nov         63%         Nov      86%
Oct         60%         Oct      43%
Sept         72%         Sept      26%
Aug         64%         Aug      63%
July         26%         July      9%
June         29%         June      19%
May         53%         May      44%
Apr         28%         Apr      19%
Mar         50%         Mar      74%
Feb         14%         Feb      11%
Jan '15      20%         Jan '15   24%
Ave         44%               44%

30
Investors - LC / Re: Worst Month Yet
« on: February 17, 2016, 12:42:05 AM »

Just got this e-mail from Prosper.  Sorry the tables in the e-mail wouldn't copy.  Maybe somebody else can post them?

QUOTE
Effective today, Prosper has increased its estimated loss rates and the price charged for risk on the loans originated through the platform. We believe this move ensures that our borrower payment dependent note and whole loan products remain competitive for our investors in the current turbulent market environment that we have witnessed since the beginning of 2016. Since August of 2015, Prosper has been proactively raising the estimated loss rates and the price for risk in the loan products originated through the platform. We believe that these proactive moves will ensure that we continue to offer superior products to our investors.

Below, please find the new pricing table and the estimated portfolio impact of the changes (changes are based on a simulation of the new policies on January booked loans and actual portfolio composition will vary depending on how new applicants respond to offers and the relative marketing mix going forward vs. January):

Estimated Aggregate Impact to Prosper Portfolio of Loss and Price Changes:
Sorry Table Wouldn't Copy

Proposed Pricing Modifications for the Week of 2‌/15:
Sorry Table Wouldn't Copy
UNQUOTE

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