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Messages - Joleran

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31
Investors - LC / Re: wave of grace notes
« on: May 20, 2014, 12:34:59 AM »
I got hit with a few a couple of weeks ago, but it's been quiet for me lately.  It's almost like there are hundreds of thousands of notes we could all be investing in and the overlap isn't very good.  Hey, wait a second, there might be something to this theory...

32
When I was in B school in the 80's, we were taught that no-one can beat the stock market indexes consistently, and basically I still believe that, but I wish like hell I would have had $10k and the wisdom to give it all to Warren Buffett back then. I guess those outliers are the Warren Buffetts of the P2P world.

The thing about Warren Buffet is that he's not your average investor.  I don't mean this in the obvious sense that his returns kick butt, but that he gets up close and personal with the companies he invests in.  The P2P equivalent would be being able to personally interview the people taking out the notes you buy.

33
What I would expect if there were an actual strategy that beat the market consistently would be that multiple people would figure this out and there would be a small concentration instead of a diffuse, near-normalized distribution.

34
Investors - LC / Re: feedback on a statistical model built in Excel
« on: April 07, 2014, 10:48:49 PM »
Remember that after 1 year, if you were buying only 36 month loans, about 3/4 of the defaults haven't happened yet.  If you were buying 60 month loans, then even more.  NAR doesn't attempt to include the effects of default on now-current loans, which is most of the loans that will default!   Remember that a loan can't default in the first 5 months, because there's a time lag before stop pay is recognized as a default, so if you think of defaults as "stop pay" events, after 12 months, you've had only 7 throws of the dice (out of 36 or 60 total so far).  Judging the return on investment counting only 7 out of 36 events is potentially quite misleading.

It's nowhere near as bad.  It's more like 50% according to http://www.orchardplatform.com/when-do-good-loans-go-bad/

35
Investors - LC / Re: Peter's Tax Post
« on: April 07, 2014, 03:32:00 PM »
Anybody understand why he would have gone silent on taxes?  Is it related to the launching of his fund?

Seems likely it's related to the fund launch.  Giving public tax advice when you're an officer of a company that handles investments doesn't usually work out very well for anyone involved.

36
Investors - LC / Re: Best days of month to find good loans?
« on: April 02, 2014, 09:52:11 AM »
I checked all sorts of temporal hypotheses. Bunk.

I think you'll find that Mondays of months with 4 Saturdays in even numbered years outperform, as do Wednesdays and Thursday in 5 Saturday months with an "e" in their name.

37
Investors - LC / Re: Lending Club to stop screen scraping?
« on: March 22, 2014, 07:32:46 AM »
You don't have to trust the pusher any more or less than you have to trust a pollee to respond to your HTTP GET request. As I said, there is a right way to architect this and a wrong way. LC is doing it the wrong way right now.

So you want Lending Club to broadcast/multicast the data...  So anyone who wants in on automated investing will have to run their own server with a static IP or a DNS entry, opening a port in their local firewall, and then implement some authentication scheme so you don't just trust that whatever data you receive is from LC.  Huh.

38
Investors - LC / Re: 2013 Consolidated 1099s Available!
« on: February 20, 2014, 01:47:51 PM »
Question about OID - suppose you buy a note for $1 off of Folio, with $2 in remaining principal.  The note matures, paying you the $2 principal and $1 of interest.

Assuming we take fees out of the equation, is your OID reported on this note $1 or $2?

39
Investors - LC / Fake bankruptcy's
« on: February 17, 2014, 02:44:22 PM »

40
Investors - LC / Re: 2013 Consolidated 1099s Available!
« on: February 06, 2014, 02:30:00 PM »
Hi. Can anyone confirm that my method above of reporting charge offs is correct?  Thanks.

No one can.  The IRS has not ruled on these officially.  Your method seems reasonable though.

41
Investors - LC / Re: 2013 Consolidated 1099s Available!
« on: January 31, 2014, 07:48:49 PM »
I wouldn't put too much faith in these being the final 1099's.  I show LT capital gains on the 1099-B for a note that charged off in 2011 and hasn't had any collection activity since.

42
Investors - LC / Re: 2013 Consolidated 1099s Available!
« on: January 31, 2014, 10:49:11 AM »
Huh, mine isn't posted.  Statements -> Tax Documents right?  They haven't moved it?

43
Investors - LC / Re: Auto Invest for Folio
« on: January 24, 2014, 12:42:47 PM »
I know I've seen more notes get snatched up pretty much instantly as of late, so there are definitely automated buying programs out there, or just a lot of people with a lot of time on their hands.  A lot of them aren't really mispriced, just excellent notes at par value with less than 18 months remaining on them.

44
Investors - LC / Re: Bankrupt notes no longer selling on Folio
« on: January 24, 2014, 10:24:45 AM »
If they wanted to protect against accidents, they should have added a popup when you select a bk note for buying that says "Hey, this note is in bankruptcy".  It would still be nurse-maiding but I'd much prefer to get rid of them to speculators even for a penny than deal with the murky tax implications of charged-off notes.

45
Investors - LC / Precision rounding mouseovers
« on: January 24, 2014, 09:15:47 AM »
Don't know if I'm just late to recognizing this or if it's a relatively new feature, but I just noticed you can mouseover values for principal, interest, etc. on pages like this:

https://www.lendingclub.com/foliofn/loanPerf.action?loan_id=1450004&order_id=13785152&note_id=12602262

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