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Messages - Bohb Daishi

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Investors - LC / Re: Interest & Charge-off Rate Changes
« on: May 07, 2014, 03:35:45 AM »
Generally a lender is going to have concentration limits on states. 

In my previous line of work, we experimented with using zipcode as a risk factor.  Our assumption was that state-based categorization was too broad; it mattered where in the state the borrower lived.

How effective was breaking it down by zip code? I know companies like Costco and Whole Foods only put stores in wealthier zip codes, while avoiding poor areas. But these are grocery stores, not consumer loans.

Investors - LC / Re: Payment - Settled In Full
« on: May 07, 2014, 03:30:56 AM »
Looks like the old "Payment - Settled In Full" log was just changed to "Borrower completed all payments for the negotiated settlement amount and will not be making additional payments".

I'm glad I offloaded those notes to Core...  ;)

Foliofn - LC / Re: Minimum Folio Price?
« on: May 06, 2014, 01:34:58 AM »
Guess it was a temporary glitch.  Tried again.  Now it doesn't care how much money I lose.

If you are selling at that price, it's not a matter of how much money you lose. It's a matter of how much money you were guaranteed to recover, since your other option would be to let the note charge off.

Investing - General (not P2P) / Re: HFT skimming the market
« on: May 06, 2014, 01:19:27 AM »
Paying a stock $45.42 instead of $45.41 does not REALLY affect long-term returns.
But of course, none of us like be skimmed!

The effect can be bigger than 1 cent.

These days when I see a stock 40.00 bid 40.06 ask, and I bid 40.03, I immediately see the ask move to 40.09 .  Then when I decide to just take the ask, so up my bid to 40.09, I see the ask suddenly move to 40.11 .   The traders are all trying to game me.  Even if I had been able to take the ask at 40.06 or 40.09, it likely would have been for 100 or 200 shares.  I'm buying in much bigger size than that.  The only tool I have is patience.  I can put the bid in at 40.05 or whatever and go away for a few hours.  If the traders (be they human or computer) see I'm not anxious, then they stop trying to game me, or perhaps they just stand aside until someone takes my bid.  However, when you do that the stock can move while you're away.  You may intend to hold for many years, but first you have to complete the purchase!  My belief, from my own experience, is that this is much more work than it used to be.  I'm the opposite of a day trader.  I don't want to sit at the computer watching and playing games.  Don't have time for it.  When they make me spend my time on this stuff I'm unhappy.

I think you are mistaking natural market movements for "traders trying to game you". If you are buying 100 or 200-lots, you aren't even worth their time to game you. You are just a small crumb from a massively larger cake. Insignificant. The $5 that they might make off you isn't worth the risk they take trying to manipulate the market.

The only situation where this MIGHT be true is in equity options, where the bid/ask spread is very wide. Those market makers are the biggest predators I've ever seen. Even Core looks like a saint compared to them.

Foliofn - LC / Re: Always Pay in Grace Period
« on: April 30, 2014, 02:51:11 AM »
If you are looking to make investment purchases, then this strategy is much better. Focus on current notes at a >7% discount and you should make a good return.
Thanks for the tip.  I have been looking at current notes, never late with long payment history that sell at 0% discount to some small discount.  If you allow for previously late notes the discounts go up quite a bit.  So you think it is better to look at notes that have some lates with 7% or more discount vs no previous lates?

In general, I do believe it's better to purchase these notes when you can get them at a good discount. Keep in mind, most people probably don't even know these notes exist because the filters default to "never late". As a result, the discounts are pushed much higher than they should be.

Investors - LC / Re: Thought Experiment for Folio Traders
« on: April 30, 2014, 02:48:01 AM »
I think that more information would lead to more efficient markets. New traders would start utilizing new/existing strategies, increasing buy-side competition. As a result of this competition, trading profits would go down substantially since sellers would get much better prices for notes (assuming they knew how to properly price them in the first place).

In the long run, however, the market will probably end up worse off. If us traders don't make any money, we won't have any incentive to provide liquidity. Without liquidity, there is no market. As much as Lending Club hates us, we are a "necessary evil". Who else is going to purchase your junk notes? Investors? I think not.

Investors - LC / Re: So Many Loans!
« on: April 30, 2014, 02:08:35 AM »
Randawl is right.  For the last 8-10 days of each month, it's apparent to me LC holds nearly all the notes in review, then issues the majority of them on the 1st-3rd.  It seems like they are manipulating the issuance numbers to show steady growth.

This could be partially explained by borrowers wanting their due date to occur on/after the 1st of the month, when they get paid.

Foliofn - LC / Re: Always Pay in Grace Period
« on: April 29, 2014, 06:55:02 AM »
There is a trading strategy here, but there are several issues with it:
Yes, I am not keen on buying IGP notes, because they seem to normally move quickly on to late 16 - 30, if I was sub par notes would go for the late 16 - 30.  My question was more along the lines of buying Late Now Current notes, that normally pay in grace period and have a long history of it.   Or those that have just one or two payments in GP.  If the lendee always seems to pay but is a bit flakey with the dates and gets dinged with Grace period payments how much of a discount is fair value for such a note, given that the credit score is even or up?

If you are looking to make investment purchases, then this strategy is much better. Focus on current notes at a >7% discount and you should make a good return.

Investors - P / Re: Prosper advises users to change their passwords
« on: April 25, 2014, 02:42:13 AM »
Well I'm not changing my Prosper password... I'm fond of my existing password since it's my cat's name.  Since they sent out this email, and I disregarded it, does that mean I am suddenly responsible for all my losses if some crook hacks my account and does nasty things with my notes?  I can't see how such a gently worded email does anything in the CYA department.

Gosh, Core, now all of your friends who know your cat's name can hack your LC account.  Oh, wait.

Why do I keep thinking that, if Core were to change his password, it would involve killing his cat and getting a new one?

What if his cat had kittens? Would it then be "cuddles1", "cuddles2", and/or "cuddles3"?

Investors - LC / Re: Where Lending Club Fails Borrowers
« on: April 25, 2014, 02:10:13 AM »
Been like this for years. It's all automated. LendingClub's database must be a nightmare.

Yojo - Have you still been getting recoveries from that note? If so, were you assessed collections fees or did you get the full $0.53 each time?

Investors - P / Re: Prosper advises users to change their passwords
« on: April 24, 2014, 03:03:10 AM »
I vote for the royal waste of time category.

So many folks are being advised to issue advisories for CYA purposes.

On the same note, I got this email from earlier today:

"Recently, you may have heard about a new internet security weakness, known as Heartbleed, which is impacting some websites. uses many layers of protections to secure your information and we’ve recently enhanced our systems to add additional protections. While there’s no indication that the Heartbleed vulnerability has been used against or that any personal information has ever been at risk, we have reset consumers’ passwords out of abundance of caution."

Even though the government gave them some $677+ million dollars to build the website, the contractor still decided to use open-source encryption...

Introductions / Re: Newbe just getting feet wet in this blog
« on: April 24, 2014, 02:47:52 AM »
I will feel ignored if Core doesn't give me a blast.

With an avatar that says "Fear the goat", you almost make it too easy.  But we try to keep things PG-13 rated around here, and what you do in the privacy of your own barnyard is your own business.  Let us not speak of such things.

Why not? This is an open forum. If you rural elite want to talk about the barnyard activities that you participate in, you should feel empowered to do so.

Investors - LC / Re: LC database sloppiness
« on: April 24, 2014, 02:38:05 AM »
On the Account Activity the credit/debit/my_balance columns have little dotted underscores. A mouse over gives a pop up box that shows the "real" number out to 10 decimal points. 

Those numbers are not as "real" as you say.  Those numbers do not agree with any form of math known to man nor beast.  See this thread.  If you're going to calculate numbers out to 12 digits they should agree with something.  They should be able to be duplicated.  They don't and they can't be.  Something is very wrong there.
Not sure why you need to act so harsh to posters.
I agree with your concern, lascott. Some people on here, as knowledgeable as they are, just haven't mastered basic manners. Even if someone makes a mistake or doesn't understand something, we should be helping each other, or at least having a civil discourse while we exchange opinions under an inviting atmosphere. I'd bet there are some of this formum's followers who want to ask a question or make a comment, but once they read some of the postings on here, don't dare ask a question or try to contribute. I wish the forum was friendlier. I've learned so much on here, but somedays I hate having to wade through all the muck to get there.

Welcome to the internet. But unlike your post, Core's reply didn't seem rude at all. He was stating a fact, not insulting someone's etiquette.

Investors - LC / Re: LC accounting problems
« on: April 24, 2014, 02:29:24 AM »
These are notes I bought on folio.

I'm a little late to the conversation, but I was going to say for you to double-check if you purchased them on folio. My numbers have never added up since I started trading. Whats worse is that with the new rounding method they use, my total payments are always off by a few cents.

What did they do with the banned members' notes in the accounts?  Did Prosper pay the users full value even for past due notes?  Or were the folks just prevented from buying new notes?
Prosper simply banned them from buying new notes, banned them from sending messages to other members or participating in the forum (which were features of the prosper platform at that time).  There were forums outside prosper where lenders communicated, so we all kept in touch. 

Do you have proof of this?

Investors - LC / Where Lending Club Fails Borrowers
« on: April 24, 2014, 02:11:19 AM »

The borrower negotiated a payment plan on 11/22/2013, made every payment on time as agreed, then was automatically charged-off because that agreed-upon payment amount wasn't high enough to keep it from going 120 days past due. I have several other notes like this, including these two from the recent batch of charge-offs:

I don't mind if Lending Club charges off a note that hasn't paid in 5 months. But when the borrower has been making recent payments, even if it's lower than the standard amount, they shouldn't be charged off. No other major lender or credit card company would charge off a borrower who is still actively trying to make good on their debt. It's utter farce.

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