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Messages - Bohb Daishi

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16
Investors - LC / Re: Give up some numbers.
« on: April 23, 2014, 02:59:25 AM »
In Funding                11
Issued & Current      178
In Grace Period         52
Fully Paid                  48
Late 16 - 30 Days     18
Late 31 - 120 Days   738
Default                      51
Charged Off              298
NAR:                         -40.47%
   ??? (huh?)   :o (shocked).   
What does your composition (grade) look like on:
https://www.lendingclub.com/account/lenderAccountDetail.action
Oh wait.  I think you are making those numbers up.  Screen shot?

These numbers are legit. However, the numbers are largely meaningless because about 95% of my purchases are for trading. The average duration that I hold a note (from purchase date to sell date) is about 51 days and capital gains aren't included in NAR.

Is your strategy focused on late31-120 notes?

Many of my strategies are focused on late notes, but not all.

17
Investors - LC / Re: Value of previously late notes
« on: April 22, 2014, 02:14:20 AM »
Just a question for anyone out there to throw some thoughts around.   I recently started to reprice my notes that have had a late payment before and are now current.   I figured that 95% of principle balance would be a good place to start with notes that have a downward trending FICO, but I'm been surprised to see the large portion of my notes selling quickly.

Your notes must be ridiculously good to sell at a -5% discount. I actively trade in late-to-current notes, and I'm lucky if I can even get -10% when they go current. Anything better than that and I'm stuck holding onto notes for months on end.

That one was 5 std-dev lower than the average.

Again, average and standard deviation are absolutely meaningless here when you have all the noise at the top end that can come and go depending on a single person's whim.  If whale guy takes down all his +69.99% listings in a certain class that you are tracking, then your std dev suddenly goes down, and so does your mean.  How valid is that?  Not at all.

I beg to differ.  If you only take a one-time snapshot, yes that would be a concern. However, having collected & analyzed FOLIOfn data for many months, I definitely see niches and patterns to take advantage of.

If you didn't want to take that USAF Current note at 18% discount, that's fine.  Like I said, I would have seriously considered it.

Your numbers will still be incorrect. While in theory it's possible that everything you see are all fairly priced, in practice it's much different. Lending Club refuses to share any actual Folio sales data, so the only thing you can base your numbers on are the prices of the notes that have not sold yet. There's a reason why they haven't sold. They are either too expensive, or the buyers who would be willing to purchase them have already used up all their available cash purchasing other notes that had better discounts.

I have plenty of investment-grade notes that are always on the market at a +7% discount, just waiting for someone to buy them. I don't expect these to get sold any time soon, but if they do then it's gravy. But given that many people price their notes in such a way, how do you filter this strategy?

The only true data set that you can go off is what price notes actually sold at (i.e. the bid price), not what they are currently priced at (i.e. the offer price). Everything is worth only what a purchaser is willing to pay for it.

18
Investors - LC / Re: Give up some numbers.
« on: April 22, 2014, 01:30:54 AM »
In Funding                11
Issued & Current      178
In Grace Period         52
Fully Paid                  48
Late 16 - 30 Days     18
Late 31 - 120 Days   738
Default                      51
Charged Off              298
NAR:                         -40.47%

19
Foliofn - LC / Re: prior Grace Period payment => Late vs Never Late
« on: April 22, 2014, 01:20:59 AM »
I have a many notes with paid in Grace Period logs. Most of them don't show up in the Never Late Folio listings, some of them do. On occasion I see other's Never Late notes that also have paid IGP. Anyone know what the determining factor is whether this is a Never Late note or not?

One of the factors I noticed is whether or not the due date falls on a weekend, especially if it's a holiday weekend.

https://www.lendingclub.com/public/rates-and-fees.action
" ... a Late Payment Fee is assessed on the 16th day to compensate investors for the delay."

Late Payment Fees are a lot harder to find than one would think.

I wonder what percentage of "Completed - NN days late" payments actually get assessed a Late Payment Fee. My guess would be less than half.

The true answer is more like <1%. Out of the the ~4000 notes that I have traded so far (95% of which were late when I purchased), I have only received $15.42 in late fees, but $8,349.48 in payments. Late fees are incredibly rare. They also seem to be assessed completely at random.

20
Foliofn - LC / Re: Always Pay in Grace Period
« on: April 22, 2014, 01:11:18 AM »
How about current but previously late notes that have:
* a long payment history, 7+ payments
* almost always pay in grace period
* recent credit score is even or up

 Basically wondering if those buying folio notes have found that previous grace payment is a good indicator of future default or not.

There is a trading strategy here, but there are several issues with it:
  • The margins are very slim. If one note goes bad, it'll take 4+ good trades just to break even.
  • IGP notes are highly competitive. Many traders only focus on this area.
  • If the note goes current, you have a very short window to sell it before it goes IGP again.
  • If the note goes current, you will be forced to sell it at >10% discount (that is, unless you are ok with holding onto it for a few months).

21
Investors - LC / Re: More Hand Holding!
« on: April 17, 2014, 10:01:47 AM »
Do any of you programmers have a a guess as to how the day field on the date is the 64th?

If this is in Java, it could be a date format issue: mm/dd/yyyy vs. mm/DD/yyyy

- dd is for 'day of the month'
- DD is for 'day of the year'

I knew it had to be some sort of date formatting issue. The only other explanation would be that Lending Club stored dates as strings/integers and something messed up. Or, heaven forbid, the value was manually entered for each note.

22
Investors - LC / Re: More Hand Holding!
« on: April 17, 2014, 01:28:40 AM »
My favorite part is that the note I took that picture from was last updated on March 64, 2014...  :o

Do any of you programmers have a a guess as to how the day field on the date is the 64th?

23
Investors - LC / More Hand Holding!
« on: April 17, 2014, 01:06:24 AM »
Anyone notice this on your notes?



My favorite part is that the note I took that picture from was last updated on March 64, 2014...  :o

24
Foliofn - LC / Re: Folio API
« on: April 17, 2014, 01:02:13 AM »
How would somebody get data on the loans trading in the folio secondary?

Unfortunately, screen scraping is the only way. I've tried asking them, but they won't give out any folio information.

25
Investors - LC / Re: what am I missing on this note?
« on: April 15, 2014, 01:53:23 AM »
Good question. It's probably a fluke, where it doesn't fall in most people's filters.

26
Off Topic / Re: Use your Credit Card or get spanked!
« on: April 14, 2014, 02:51:26 AM »
I lost 12 points on my credit score. 

Down-arrow FICO? You're now worth 5% less.

27
Exactly ... the institutional investors who get shares at a fixed price before hand try to create buzz around IPOs so they can sell into a first day "pop".  There is very little advantage for a regular Joe with an online brokerage account to rush into buying a stock on the first day of trading, unless you are day trader and counting on a stock to build momentum through out the day, and then sell for a quick profit.  If you are a long term investor, I'd rather buy a stock with a good track record than an unknown.

I know right! Those suckers who bought Facebook on Day One are probably STILL kicking themselves.

You forget that, unlike most IPO's, Facebook wasn't limited to investment banks and their clients. Anyone could get into that IPO. Heck, an old brokerage account I had with Etrade that has had a $0 balance for the last 5 years even got an IPO offer.

28
Investors - LC / Re: Collections Excluding Medical
« on: April 11, 2014, 02:49:02 AM »
Medical collections are sometimes treated differently than credit card collections. This basically is the sum of any collections activity that didn't come from a hospital.

29
Investors - LC / Re: Anyone catch this job title this morning?
« on: April 11, 2014, 02:47:04 AM »
I found this interesting site:

You must have "safe search" turned on because there are a lot more "interesting" sites than that one if you google bebe siter. :)

I just Googled it too and didn't get anything "interesting". You must have a very colorful search/browsing history.

30
Investing - General (not P2P) / Re: 'Accredited Investor' Status
« on: April 11, 2014, 02:42:23 AM »
NOT ASKING for legal advice.. but he basically just made up info and sent it to one of the sites (not going to reveal which one). Apparently they didnt do any kind of actual verification and let him sign up...

Is he at risk of anything? Is there any risk to an investor doing something like this?

He should be fine. Worst-case scenario, he loses money and can't sue. If they ever find out that he lied though, he would probably have his account closed.

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