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Messages - jz451

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Wouldn't it be easier to create an automated moving average each month for say 3,6,12 months to get a better representation of when returns are increasing, decreasing, or changes in strategy?

General P2P Lending Discussion / Re: Liquidity
« on: April 06, 2016, 07:56:11 PM »

This is what confuses me the most.  Where to start.  Do you put some of your normal filters to work in the folio market?  I applied for strict filters and came up with 4 notes, just to put my lil toe in the water to see what I find.

I see why they are probably bailing out due to his 2 grace periods.  Any other reasons?
Same here I guess?
Does the late payment scare you away from this one enough to pass up on its discount?
Is something wrong with this one I am simply not seeing?

1. I would't buy it for the same reason either.
3. I personally wouldn't touch it, and 1.3% discount is too little for me. For someone who wants to take the risk then all the power too them.
4. It's the same loan as above and I saw two going to a 3% and 9% markup. It's just what people think they will get. I just started with LC and specifically Folio and I don't pay more than a 3% market on low grade (E/F/G) loans with perfect payment records.

Investors - LC / Re: Can someone offer some Investor 101 for a newbie?
« on: April 05, 2016, 08:09:46 PM »
To be honest this is not the type of investment to get into if you don't know anything as your first investment. More important than investing is to save cash so you have enough saved to pay 6 months of more of payments you normally make each month. As a first investment would be to invest in mutual funds or ETFs, not stocks since you don't know how to value them. The best options are through Fidelity or Vanguard that track the S&P 500 like the SPDR ETF which has a ridiculously low fee of 0.05%. Other options after putting some money into that would be mutual funds with a long history like over 10+ years, return at least 10%, and have low fees no greater than 0.75%-1%, lower the better. If you want to get into something like this with a steady cash flow then invest into high yield bond funds, which don't have the likelyhood to one day vanish.

General P2P Lending Discussion / Re: Liquidity
« on: April 03, 2016, 01:04:16 AM »
I didn't check the note grade or FICO chart, I just looked and saw if there was anything and that was what popped up.

This will be my first post showing my returns which happens to be my first month investing in LC. This is my trial run with LC so that's why only $1000 was invested. It's strictly Folio notes and I plan to update on the first of the month. Also how do I get the WAAoP if the notes are only from Folio?

ANAR: 23.63%
WAIR: 25.08%
WAAoP: N/A (all Folio notes)

# of Notes:  50
A(0%), B(0%), C(0%), D(0%), E(9.8%), F(30.3%), G(59.9%)
36(1.9%), 60 (98.1%)

vs All Accounts: 99.9%
vs Similar Age Accounts: N/A (all Folio notes)
vs Similar Age and WAIR Accounts: N/A (all Folio notes)

Attached below

Off Topic / Re: Starting a P2P Consulting Biz..
« on: March 29, 2016, 10:31:44 PM »
It said on the bottom they must pass the series 65 exam, so honestly it's easier to pass the series 7/66 exams normally required for advisors, just to cover all the bases.

Investors - LC / Re: Lawsuit Against LC
« on: March 29, 2016, 11:43:46 AM »
It's too funny that the person is complaining that Lending Club violates usurylaws, yet filed the lawsuit because they lost who knows how much money buying Lending Club's stock. I bet the lawyers love this person knowing they win no matter what.

Investors - LC / Re: Lawsuit Against LC
« on: March 28, 2016, 10:26:11 PM »
I see no validity of where this is going to go. Credit cards for decades have charged as high or higher rates than the typical loan on LC. LC is highly regulated under the SEC and if this was found illegal it would have happened by now. I just think someone's feathers have been ruffled and trying to get compensation for it.

General P2P Lending Discussion / Re: Liquidity
« on: March 28, 2016, 11:17:29 AM »
I just looked on Folio and it showed for notes with 1-6 payments left you can get easily get 4-5%, which translates to a 8-10% yearly return.
4-5% what?  YTM?

Yes YTM, and more than enough to browse through.

General P2P Lending Discussion / Re: Liquidity
« on: March 25, 2016, 11:53:26 AM »
I just looked on Folio and it showed for notes with 1-6 payments left you can get easily get 4-5%, which translates to a 8-10% yearly return.

Foliofn - LC / Re: All-Folio note acquisition strategy
« on: March 21, 2016, 05:30:59 PM »
I have a similar strategy...

I bought "seasoned notes", roughly 1000 notes of various sizes, at PAR or below, $0- $20, never late, at least 12 months in, YTM >15%, grade is A-G.   After 10 months, burned with a high number of charge offs, my NAR was a negative 8% at one point.   

Then I changed strategies, I dumped a lot of the low grade notes, bought notes with FICO improved or neutral, seasoned note 12 months or greater, YTM > 10%, $0-20.  IGP/late/charge off rate declined as I would try to sell at 15-25% discount once it reaches IGP.  NAR is now 4%.

The NAR is inaccurate as total return after ~12 months is just a measly 1.5%.  Bottom line, the seasoned penny note strategy looks and sounds good on paper but sucks in reality.   

After doing taxes (see topic below), I'm almost convinced that LC is a big waste of time.


What were the FICO scores when you bought notes, were most >650? My strategy I'm starting to try out is to buy notes with FICO scores >650 and with overall flat or increasing FICO score charts. Maybe that's why many of your notes defaulted

Introductions / Hi
« on: March 21, 2016, 04:16:45 PM »
Hi everyone,

I decided over the past few weeks to experiment with Lending Club as a viable investment strategy. I'm mostly going to invest using Foliofn after I backtested on NSR and found the returns and variance better than new loans. I look forward to how this will turn out.

Foliofn - LC / Re: All-Folio note acquisition strategy
« on: March 21, 2016, 04:11:00 PM »
I don't think you're missing something because I'm in the same boat. I just started and plopped 1k the past few days after backtesting on NSR and realized that you can make greater returns with significantly less variance if you know what to look for. I will wait and see the next several months to see if my assumptions are correct.

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