Author Topic: Zacks Investment Research - Anyone Use Them?  (Read 30451 times)

rawraw

  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 2795
    • View Profile
Re: Zacks Investment Research - Anyone Use Them?
« Reply #15 on: May 04, 2013, 02:58:30 PM »
BTW, RawRaw, Zacks is a very popular investment research company. Many brokerages use their research to provide stock portfolio options.
I know this.  And I also know actively managed funds under perform indexes.  I'm not saying it's not quality equity research.  I'm saying I wouldn't believe those returns and neither should you.  It's probably a survivorship bias, backfill bias, or just random chance.

Interesting theory. So, if you're skeptical of it, do you have any particular preference on stock recommendation services that "really" perform, or a great ETF?
When I spent more time involved in equity research (it was my intended career path but an unforeseen curve ball came), I know that Value Line and Morningstar were my go-to.  I really like Morningstar and Value Line is one of the only services I know that has the balls to detail their forecasted financials used.  So I could Value Line as a starting line, plug it into my Excel spreadsheet that did all the common methods (EV/EBITDA, DCF, DDM, etc), adjust them for a margin of safety, and adjust the financials appropriately based on my readings of the 10-K.

I also like GMO for macro themes and how to view markets.  James Montier and Grantham (of course) are my favorite of the GMO team.   But I really read anything, like today's most interesting article from Shilling: http://www.businessinsider.com/gary-shilling-6-realities-in-deleveraging-2013-5

But claiming people will get returns of 30% from using their research is just good marketing IMO.  Even Buffet's CAGR is "only" 22%.  For most people, trying to outperform the S&P index vs buying the S&P index is just a waste of time that could've been used for for a higher NPV project. 

I haven't been participating in equities lately, as the market as a whole seems very over priced both on a PE and Shiller PE basis.  LC doesn't require nearly the analysis the equities would require, so I just dollar cost average into equity index funds and don't think about it.

« Last Edit: May 04, 2013, 03:00:15 PM by rawraw »

Cries

  • Jr. Member
  • **
  • Posts: 91
    • View Profile
Re: Zacks Investment Research - Anyone Use Them?
« Reply #16 on: May 06, 2013, 09:00:36 PM »
It wasnt hard to generate 20+% returns over the last year or so.  Almost any equity basket would have gotten you those returns - keep in mind its been an incredibly bullish market.  If you've been watching your return over the last month or so, then you were bound to be disappointed - we've been going sideways for most of April, with a selloff along the way.

Personally, I wouldnt trust any brokerage research; they almost never generate ideas/theses with anything that hasnt already been priced in (aka, you will always be the last to buy; never the first).  I also think its a bad time to be buying equities in general (but thats another story).  If you are looking for good ideas, I encourage you to get a trial account at DDIC and VIC (although full accounts are considerably better). 

If you had to invest in equities, but dont have much time to do so, I'd recommend RSP (an equal weight ETF) for US equities.  Its cheap and will get the job done better than most other passively managed ETFs (read The Big Secret For the Small Investor; by Greenblatt for more info).  However, again, I dont think now is a good time to be buying (I've been slowly liquidating my 401k, IRAs, and personal portfolio over the last 4 or 5 months)

If you ever plan to pick individual equities again - I'd highly recommend a fairly lengthy reading list of value investing books (Margin of Safety; Stock Market Genius; Value Investing; A Long Short Story; Financial Shenanigans).  If you dont read these, you are (in my opinion) very ill-equipped to be managing your own equity portfolio. 

Fred

  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 1421
    • View Profile
Re: Zacks Investment Research - Anyone Use Them?
« Reply #17 on: May 06, 2013, 10:14:37 PM »
... so I just dollar cost average into equity index funds and don't think about it.

+1

Cries

  • Jr. Member
  • **
  • Posts: 91
    • View Profile
Re: Zacks Investment Research - Anyone Use Them?
« Reply #18 on: May 06, 2013, 10:22:04 PM »
... so I just dollar cost average into equity index funds and don't think about it.

+1
Agreed; however, I would refrain from putting a large chunk of capital to work upfront.

Zach

  • Administrator
  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 622
    • View Profile
    • Email
Re: Zacks Investment Research - Anyone Use Them?
« Reply #19 on: May 07, 2013, 09:57:59 AM »
Thanks everyone for your thoughts!

Sent from my HTC6435LVW using Tapatalk 2


rawraw

  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 2795
    • View Profile
Re: Zacks Investment Research - Anyone Use Them?
« Reply #20 on: May 07, 2013, 07:32:23 PM »
It wasnt hard to generate 20+% returns over the last year or so.  Almost any equity basket would have gotten you those returns - keep in mind its been an incredibly bullish market.  If you've been watching your return over the last month or so, then you were bound to be disappointed - we've been going sideways for most of April, with a selloff along the way.

Personally, I wouldnt trust any brokerage research; they almost never generate ideas/theses with anything that hasnt already been priced in (aka, you will always be the last to buy; never the first).  I also think its a bad time to be buying equities in general (but thats another story).  If you are looking for good ideas, I encourage you to get a trial account at DDIC and VIC (although full accounts are considerably better). 

If you had to invest in equities, but dont have much time to do so, I'd recommend RSP (an equal weight ETF) for US equities.  Its cheap and will get the job done better than most other passively managed ETFs (read The Big Secret For the Small Investor; by Greenblatt for more info).  However, again, I dont think now is a good time to be buying (I've been slowly liquidating my 401k, IRAs, and personal portfolio over the last 4 or 5 months)

If you ever plan to pick individual equities again - I'd highly recommend a fairly lengthy reading list of value investing books (Margin of Safety; Stock Market Genius; Value Investing; A Long Short Story; Financial Shenanigans).  If you dont read these, you are (in my opinion) very ill-equipped to be managing your own equity portfolio.
Good points.

Cries

  • Jr. Member
  • **
  • Posts: 91
    • View Profile
Re: Zacks Investment Research - Anyone Use Them?
« Reply #21 on: May 12, 2013, 11:03:26 PM »
It wasnt hard to generate 20+% returns over the last year or so.  Almost any equity basket would have gotten you those returns - keep in mind its been an incredibly bullish market.  If you've been watching your return over the last month or so, then you were bound to be disappointed - we've been going sideways for most of April, with a selloff along the way.

Personally, I wouldnt trust any brokerage research; they almost never generate ideas/theses with anything that hasnt already been priced in (aka, you will always be the last to buy; never the first).  I also think its a bad time to be buying equities in general (but thats another story).  If you are looking for good ideas, I encourage you to get a trial account at DDIC and VIC (although full accounts are considerably better). 

If you had to invest in equities, but dont have much time to do so, I'd recommend RSP (an equal weight ETF) for US equities.  Its cheap and will get the job done better than most other passively managed ETFs (read The Big Secret For the Small Investor; by Greenblatt for more info).  However, again, I dont think now is a good time to be buying (I've been slowly liquidating my 401k, IRAs, and personal portfolio over the last 4 or 5 months)

If you ever plan to pick individual equities again - I'd highly recommend a fairly lengthy reading list of value investing books (Margin of Safety; Stock Market Genius; Value Investing; A Long Short Story; Financial Shenanigans).  If you dont read these, you are (in my opinion) very ill-equipped to be managing your own equity portfolio.
Good points.
rawraw, I found you on the analystforum site.  You taking L2 in a couple weeks?

rawraw

  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 2795
    • View Profile
Re: Zacks Investment Research - Anyone Use Them?
« Reply #22 on: May 13, 2013, 06:51:54 AM »
It wasnt hard to generate 20+% returns over the last year or so.  Almost any equity basket would have gotten you those returns - keep in mind its been an incredibly bullish market.  If you've been watching your return over the last month or so, then you were bound to be disappointed - we've been going sideways for most of April, with a selloff along the way.

Personally, I wouldnt trust any brokerage research; they almost never generate ideas/theses with anything that hasnt already been priced in (aka, you will always be the last to buy; never the first).  I also think its a bad time to be buying equities in general (but thats another story).  If you are looking for good ideas, I encourage you to get a trial account at DDIC and VIC (although full accounts are considerably better). 

If you had to invest in equities, but dont have much time to do so, I'd recommend RSP (an equal weight ETF) for US equities.  Its cheap and will get the job done better than most other passively managed ETFs (read The Big Secret For the Small Investor; by Greenblatt for more info).  However, again, I dont think now is a good time to be buying (I've been slowly liquidating my 401k, IRAs, and personal portfolio over the last 4 or 5 months)

If you ever plan to pick individual equities again - I'd highly recommend a fairly lengthy reading list of value investing books (Margin of Safety; Stock Market Genius; Value Investing; A Long Short Story; Financial Shenanigans).  If you dont read these, you are (in my opinion) very ill-equipped to be managing your own equity portfolio.
Good points.
rawraw, I found you on the analystforum site.  You taking L2 in a couple weeks?
Yes, unfortunately lol

 As of right now, don't think I'll pass (haven't put in enough hours).  But I'm attempting to bridge that gap over the next few weeks.  Life got in the way halfway through studies.  I finished reading CFAI Material in March, but didn't get much done in April.  If it was just testing concepts, I'd pass.  But I need to memorize a lot of rules and formulas to complement the concepts.