Author Topic: The Next Crash  (Read 10487 times)

berniemadeoff

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Re: The Next Crash
« Reply #15 on: May 27, 2013, 07:16:38 PM »
I have not read that whitepaper.  I guess I'd like to see his historical return performance.  Talk is cheap.

rawraw

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Re: The Next Crash
« Reply #16 on: May 28, 2013, 06:35:34 AM »
I have not read that whitepaper.  I guess I'd like to see his historical return performance.  Talk is cheap.
I think you'd really enjoy this guy and his firm.  GMO is a pretty well known and large fund.  This was the first thing on Google, to find an article's intro for him:

Quote
Grantham who occupies a legendary place in the world of finance for predicting all the major stock market bubbles of recent decades (and doing very well in the process) had decided, after 15 years of low-key environmental philanthropy, to, as he puts it, "walk the walk".

James Montier is one of the research guys for GMO.  He is big into behavioral finance.  This is the whitepaper: http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user5/imageroot/2012/02/Montier%20-%20What%20goes%20up%20must%20come%20down.pdf

And this is a recent interview with Grantham on Charlie Rose (it's an hour long, so be sure to have time but def. good): http://www.charlierose.com/view/interview/12812
« Last Edit: May 28, 2013, 06:45:28 AM by rawraw »

Cries

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Re: The Next Crash
« Reply #17 on: June 19, 2013, 02:18:49 AM »
Rawraw, I feel like we read many of the same blogs online. 

Anyways, I have not seen any evidence that we are out of the recession that started in 08/09.  I am not buying or holding any indexes currently because the risk way outweighs any potential returns.  (I actually sold the last bit of my indices this afternoon - tired of of the endless volatility due to FOMC speculation.)

I have all my money in consumer credit, 3-4 value stocks, 4 special situations, and a pile of puts on a a massively overvalued equity.  I believe that everything I own is insulated against a market sell-off/crash, although I would love to hear what I'm doing wrong from anyone with an opinion.

I've been giving this stuff a lot of thought lately.
« Last Edit: June 19, 2013, 04:40:47 PM by Cries »