Author Topic: Personal Portfolio Returns  (Read 51513 times)

Deming

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Re: Personal Portfolio Returns
« Reply #45 on: November 04, 2014, 11:00:05 AM »
Bryce, I look forward to your Q3 2014 posting. It is very interesting to follow. Thank you for sharing.

rockinray

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Re: Personal Portfolio Returns
« Reply #46 on: November 05, 2014, 09:03:00 AM »
+1 -

Thanks Bryce. I always look forward to your updates.

Ray

brycemason

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Re: Personal Portfolio Returns
« Reply #47 on: November 05, 2014, 09:16:32 AM »
Of course. I usually wait until LC comes out with their full stats download for the quarter. That's when I do all my updates, including model revisions, client reports, and my account sharing. It's going to be fairly boring, with a NAR continuing to be around 9.7%. The only crazy thing was cash drag last quarter due to the LC asychronous timing, which thankfully has gone away. Now we are fighting lower interest rates, but I'm still finding enough loans at Top 10% to stay invested.

rawraw

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Re: Personal Portfolio Returns
« Reply #48 on: November 05, 2014, 11:18:46 AM »
Of course. I usually wait until LC comes out with their full stats download for the quarter. That's when I do all my updates, including model revisions, client reports, and my account sharing. It's going to be fairly boring, with a NAR continuing to be around 9.7%. The only crazy thing was cash drag last quarter due to the LC asychronous timing, which thankfully has gone away. Now we are fighting lower interest rates, but I'm still finding enough loans at Top 10% to stay invested.
You should consider using Folio strategies.  My NAR for an old portfolio is roughly equal to that using LM picks  - makes me wonder about your view of the risk/return relationship.  I think you may be giving away returns by foregoing Folio activity, but it also makes tracking more burdensome.

brycemason

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Re: Personal Portfolio Returns
« Reply #49 on: November 05, 2014, 01:13:27 PM »
I'm certain there are opportunities in Folio, but my time is better spent building my business and working with paying clients right now. I like the ROI just fine for the effort I put in. But, I'm glad you've found something attractive with LMin!

brycemason

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Re: Personal Portfolio Returns
« Reply #50 on: January 11, 2015, 03:09:10 PM »
Q4 2014

The big change since last update is that LC has dropped interest rates substantially across all note grades, so even though many of our older (lower interest rate) notes have been repaid and we've invested in higher risk notes, the average interest rate of the portfolio has only increased about 20 bps.

P2P-Picks maintains a hard-coded threshold for the expected returns, so when interest rates drop we naturally pick fewer loans that meet our expected return criteria. Because of this, we had to go from a Top 5% strategy back to a Top 10% strategy in order to stay invested. If rates continue to drop, I will have to evaluate whether I wish to change the definition of what constitutes Top 5% and Top 10%.
 
Barring external events, we anticipate this level of performance should continue. We are particularly proud of where we show on the "Understanding Your Returns" chart, given that the strategy selects such a large volume of 36 month notes (~5-10% of the platform). In fact, we have maintained our returns in spite of the average age of the portfolio increasing somewhere between 2-3 months on that chart. Thus, we are moving up the ladder in terms of how our strategy compares to other investors.


Balances
LC Reported Account Value
$45,187
Discounted Accrued Interest
$394
Impaired Loan Write-downs
$1,143
Estimated Account Value
$44,438

Balances by Distress Level (Not discounted)
Category
N
$
%
Current
1,360
41482
95.6
In Grace Period
23
608
1.4
Late 16+
4
116
0.3
Late 31+
35
1061
2.4
In Default
5
118
0.3

Charge Offs
Category
N
$
%
Prior Year
75
$2,543
5.9

Transfers
Deposits
None
Withdrawals
None

Average Portfolio Description
Interest Rate
18.3%
Age (unweighted)
493 days
Age (weighted)
332 days

Returns
LendingClub Net Annualized Return
9.77%
Excel XIRR (inc. cash drag)
9.32%

Strategy
  • Buy and hold 36-month LendingClub securities - no secondary market activity.
  • Initial deployment Top 10% P2P-Picks graded notes.
  • ~30% of portfolio is invested under P2P-Picks Profit Maximizer Model v1 (Prior to May 2013).
  • Reinvestments using Top 5% P-Max Model v2 (May 2013 onward - more aggressive).
  • Reinvestments using D & E graded notes only (March 2014 onward - more aggressive).
  • Reinvestments using D & E graded Top 10% notes only (Sept. 2014 onward - less aggressive due to note availability and interest rate cuts).
« Last Edit: January 11, 2015, 09:55:51 PM by brycemason »

rawraw

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Re: Personal Portfolio Returns
« Reply #51 on: January 12, 2015, 06:30:08 AM »
Hey Bryce

Have you ever discussed why you do the D&E only?  I thought I remember you saying before that it shouldn't matter the grade, if it meets the model's hurdle rate.  I guess I never noticed you were filtering based on grade before.

brycemason

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Re: Personal Portfolio Returns
« Reply #52 on: January 12, 2015, 09:51:02 AM »
Higher grades tend to have a higher vertical leap over the hurdle level.

Half Right

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Re: Personal Portfolio Returns
« Reply #53 on: January 12, 2015, 07:55:36 PM »
why not increase the investment per note now that rates are coming down?
Nice return. Unfortunately it is not scalable to a much bigger portfolio. I have doubled the investment per note as rates have declined and am still unable to find enough notes to satisfy my needs.

hoggy1

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Re: Personal Portfolio Returns
« Reply #54 on: January 13, 2015, 04:28:10 PM »
Q4 2014

The big change since last update is that LC has dropped interest rates substantially across all note grades, so even though many of our older (lower interest rate) notes have been repaid and we've invested in higher risk notes, the average interest rate of the portfolio has only increased about 20 bps.

P2P-Picks maintains a hard-coded threshold for the expected returns, so when interest rates drop we naturally pick fewer loans that meet our expected return criteria. Because of this, we had to go from a Top 5% strategy back to a Top 10% strategy in order to stay invested. If rates continue to drop, I will have to evaluate whether I wish to change the definition of what constitutes Top 5% and Top 10%.
 
Barring external events, we anticipate this level of performance should continue. We are particularly proud of where we show on the "Understanding Your Returns" chart, given that the strategy selects such a large volume of 36 month notes (~5-10% of the platform). In fact, we have maintained our returns in spite of the average age of the portfolio increasing somewhere between 2-3 months on that chart. Thus, we are moving up the ladder in terms of how our strategy compares to other investors.


Balances
LC Reported Account Value
$45,187
Discounted Accrued Interest
$394
Impaired Loan Write-downs
$1,143
Estimated Account Value
$44,438

Balances by Distress Level (Not discounted)
Category
N
$
%
Current
1,360
41482
95.6
In Grace Period
23
608
1.4
Late 16+
4
116
0.3
Late 31+
35
1061
2.4
In Default
5
118
0.3

Charge Offs
Category
N
$
%
Prior Year
75
$2,543
5.9

Transfers
Deposits
None
Withdrawals
None

Average Portfolio Description
Interest Rate
18.3%
Age (unweighted)
493 days
Age (weighted)
332 days

Returns
LendingClub Net Annualized Return
9.77%
Excel XIRR (inc. cash drag)
9.32%

Strategy
  • Buy and hold 36-month LendingClub securities - no secondary market activity.
  • Initial deployment Top 10% P2P-Picks graded notes.
  • ~30% of portfolio is invested under P2P-Picks Profit Maximizer Model v1 (Prior to May 2013).
  • Reinvestments using Top 5% P-Max Model v2 (May 2013 onward - more aggressive).
  • Reinvestments using D & E graded notes only (March 2014 onward - more aggressive).
  • Reinvestments using D & E graded Top 10% notes only (Sept. 2014 onward - less aggressive due to note availability and interest rate cuts).

I can't find on LC's site the page (comparison.png) you showed in this post. Is that because I trade on Folio?
Steve

lascott

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Re: Personal Portfolio Returns
« Reply #55 on: January 13, 2015, 04:41:51 PM »
I can't find on LC's site the page (comparison.png) you showed in this post. Is that because I trade on Folio?
I may have misunderstood your questions. I get there from here:

to get to this:
« Last Edit: January 13, 2015, 04:44:09 PM by lascott »
Tools I use: (main) BlueVestment: https://www.bluevestment.com/app/pricing + https://www.interestradar.com/ , (others) Lending Robot referral link: https://www.lendingrobot.com/ref/scott473/  & Peercube referral code: DFVA9Y

hoggy1

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Re: Personal Portfolio Returns
« Reply #56 on: January 13, 2015, 04:47:54 PM »
Thanks Scott,

I see it now. I always have "combined returns" selected and that link says "understanding your combined returns" which takes you to a page with no chart. When I selected Primary Notes I get taken to the correct place.

Thanks again.
Steve

brycemason

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Re: Personal Portfolio Returns
« Reply #57 on: April 24, 2015, 09:48:59 AM »
Q1 2015

The effect of lower interest rates is beginning to be felt in the portfolio, with the blended rate having dropped 10bps since last update. However, the portfolio's performance continues to strengthen with NAR almost hitting the vaunted 10% level (9.6% XIRR). This is now a very mature portfolio.

P2P-Picks maintains a hard-coded threshold for the expected returns, so when interest rates drop we naturally pick fewer loans that meet our expected return criteria. Because of this, we had to go from a Top 5% strategy back to a Top 10% strategy in order to stay invested. If rates continue to drop, I will have to evaluate whether I wish to change the definition of what constitutes Top 5% and Top 10%. However, with adjustments to our scripts to query the API, I am not having any trouble staying reinvested at this time and am considering increasing my exposure.
 
Barring external events, we anticipate this level of performance should continue. We are particularly proud of where we show on the "Understanding Your Returns" chart, given that the strategy selects such a large volume of 36 month notes (~5-10% of the platform). In fact, we have maintained our returns in spite of the average age of the portfolio increasing another month on that chart. The active notes in the portfolio, however, are slightly younger. Thus, we are moving up the ladder in terms of how our strategy compares to other investors.

If you use P2P-Picks to maintain your LC portfolio, I'd love it if you shared your results (especially if that's all you've ever used).


Balances
LC Reported Account Value
$46,437
Discounted Accrued Interest
$412
Impaired Loan Write-downs
$982
Estimated Account Value
$45,867

Balances by Distress Level (Not discounted)
Category
N
$
%
Current
1,379
42511
96.4
In Grace Period
14
398
0.9
Late 16+
7
173
0.4
Late 31+
32
964
2.1
In Default
2
61
0.1

Charge Offs
Category
N
$
%
Prior Year
81
$2,665
6.0

Transfers
Deposits
None
Withdrawals
None

Average Portfolio Description
Interest Rate
18.2%
Age (unweighted)
480 days
Age (weighted)
313 days

Returns
LendingClub Net Annualized Return
9.99%
Excel XIRR (inc. cash drag)
9.56%

Strategy
  • Buy and hold 36-month LendingClub securities - no secondary market activity.
  • Initial deployment Top 10% P2P-Picks graded notes.
  • ~30% of portfolio is invested under P2P-Picks Profit Maximizer Model v1 (Prior to May 2013).
  • Reinvestments using Top 5% P-Max Model v2 (May 2013 onward - more aggressive).
  • Reinvestments using D & E graded notes only (March 2014 onward - more aggressive).
  • Reinvestments using D & E graded Top 10% notes only (Sept. 2014 onward - less aggressive due to note availability and interest rate cuts).

rawraw

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Re: Personal Portfolio Returns
« Reply #58 on: April 25, 2015, 10:48:41 AM »
I have separate portfolios in LC for my P2P-Picks stuff, although I haven't had a chance to reactive Bluevestment yet so they've been decreasing in size.  Would you just want the data dump?  (Caveat being I actively manage it based on FICO, so there is a selection/survivor bias).  Pretty sure I could replicate these tables in Excel using formulas, just not sure what the end goal is for you wanting user returns.

brycemason

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Re: Personal Portfolio Returns
« Reply #59 on: April 25, 2015, 02:51:47 PM »
I'm only interested in users who have used a buy and hold strategy using only P2P-Picks, preferably for 18+ months. It's a little silly, as I could just draw random samples of 1000 loan portfolios from my master list of picks and see how they did, but it's fun to hear stories.