Author Topic: # Months Paid before default  (Read 3523 times)

pmcgrath

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# Months Paid before default
« on: August 05, 2013, 01:31:46 PM »
Looking for data on # of months paid before default in Lending Club historical data. Anyone have any ideas? thanks

condiment

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Re: # Months Paid before default
« Reply #1 on: August 05, 2013, 04:18:57 PM »
There are a couple ways to go about this.

One is to measure the installment value against the total principal and interest received. 

Add up all the payments made for records in default,  then take the average of the installment and divide it into that.  This gives you the total # of months of  payments made for all loans in default.  Divide it by the total number of notes to get the average # months paid prior to default.

The specific columns in the dataset are: installment, total_rec_prncp, total_rec_int, and of course loan_status.

Applying this formula to the dataset and using my own definition of 'default', which I won't describe in detail here, I get the following figures:

454.994590696 - avg installment
10.3747026551 - months to default


Another way to get at this data would be to take the delta between the last_pymnt_d and issue_d for loans in default.  Using this process I see:

11.6627822853 - months from issue date to last payment.



brycemason

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Re: # Months Paid before default
« Reply #2 on: August 05, 2013, 05:27:18 PM »
Just remember that without the payment history, you only have a proxy for month of default. The total payments may add up to Month 9, but that doesn't mean they made exactly 9 payments and stopped. Partial payments can trickle in for months, and default in Month 22, but still add up to 9 payments.

New Jersey Guy

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Re: # Months Paid before default
« Reply #3 on: August 05, 2013, 06:28:55 PM »
"Partial payments can trickle in for months, and default in Month 22, but still add up to 9 payments."

Excellent point!  A $10 payment on day 119 is enough to keep the loan from going into default. 

There are many loans on Folio right now where last (full) payments haven't been made since back in 2010.
Return over deposits:   66.82%
IRR:   86.54%
As of April 30, 2014

Fred

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Re: # Months Paid before default
« Reply #4 on: August 05, 2013, 07:55:57 PM »
If anyone is interested in LC payment history data (until April-2013), please see this thread: http://www.lendacademy.com/forum/index.php?topic=1057.0.

Fred

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Re: # Months Paid before default
« Reply #5 on: August 05, 2013, 08:00:10 PM »
This analysis from PeerCube might also be useful:  http://andirog.blogspot.com/2013/02/lending-club-loans-months-of-payment.html