Author Topic: "Double-Down" on late payments???  (Read 21524 times)

New Jersey Guy

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Re: "Double-Down" on late payments???
« Reply #15 on: September 06, 2013, 10:11:35 PM »
"I would not engage in back & forth discussions of this type on big soccer days...........when I tend to become more agitated than usual. I will keep my promise."

Dan...I fully understand and love going back-and-forth with you.  See ya the next time you're off your medication!
Return over deposits:   66.82%
IRR:   86.54%
As of April 30, 2014

DanB

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Re: "Double-Down" on late payments???
« Reply #16 on: September 07, 2013, 05:10:49 AM »
Core said.............If IRR and return over deposits is irrelevant, then what would you suggest as a metric?

I care not.................I just think that displaying it after each & every post demonstrates a certain lack of class & good taste.  But hey, if the  posting of unverified numbers passes as fun for you, then great! I will remind myself to pretend to be real impressed in the future.

core

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Re: "Double-Down" on late payments???
« Reply #17 on: September 07, 2013, 05:41:57 AM »
Dan, on a topic-specific forum it is customary to use the sig line to say something about one's current situation as it relates to that particular topic.  On a car forum it might include the car models you own.  On a pilot board you'd list all the aircraft in which you are type rated or regularly fly.  In an MMORPG setting it's common to list all your silly little characters' levels. 

Nobody gets bent out of shape about those and I see no reason why this situation should be any different.

It's a game, just like playing the ponies.  I know when I'm walking away from the track I always ask my buddy how much he made/lost.  At the BJ table that's usually the topic of discussion as well.  Riiiiight?  Sure it is.  I don't ask the bloke at the table to "verify" what he said he won; it's just fun to know.

DanB

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Re: "Double-Down" on late payments???
« Reply #18 on: September 07, 2013, 06:42:22 AM »
Dan, on a topic-specific forum it is customary to use the sig line to say something about one's current situation as it relates to that particular topic.  On a car forum it might include the car models you own.  On a pilot board you'd list all the aircraft in which you are type rated or regularly fly.  In an MMORPG setting it's common to list all your silly little characters' levels. 

Nobody gets bent out of shape about those and I see no reason why this situation should be any different.

It's a game, just like playing the ponies.  I know when I'm walking away from the track I always ask my buddy how much he made/lost. At the BJ table that's usually the topic of discussion as well.  Riiiiight?  Sure it is.  I don't ask the bloke at the table to "verify" what he said he won; it's just fun to know.

I'm not bent out of shape. I've merely stated my opinion.
Having been in the production side of the straight adult video business for 17 years, I understand your sentiment.  Some male actors feel the necessity to supply the studios not only a copy of their latest HIV test results (as required)..............but also some testament or boast as to their virility &/or their dimensions. So yes, I get it.  :)

You are correct though. That is the topic of discussion at, or after leaving, the BJ table............ for amateurs & weekenders. They also tend to talk about it rather loudly for all to hear. When pros talk with one another about results, (& that is rare) they talk about the number of bet sizes they are over or under expectations...........that is all. 

AmCap

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Re: "Double-Down" on late payments???
« Reply #19 on: September 07, 2013, 01:13:22 PM »
I admire NJGuy for making a go of it with his distressed note / folio-based strategy.  I can tell you that it can be profitable if you know what you're doing.  I still have concerns about scalability, as well as the lack of predictability in the secondary market's liquidity (put another way, I got burned pretty bad when things slowed to a halt at the beginning of the year). 

Fred

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Re: "Double-Down" on late payments???
« Reply #20 on: September 07, 2013, 01:48:18 PM »
I still have concerns about scalability, as well as the lack of predictability in the secondary market's liquidity (put another way, I got burned pretty bad when things slowed to a halt at the beginning of the year). 

I have been seriously entertaining the idea of being a liquidity-provider for FOLIOfn. 

However, I have also been hesitant since there isn't much FOLIOfn data to analyze.  If anyone can point me to the likes of LC browsenotes and loanstats files for FOLIOfn notes, then I might take another look.

New Jersey Guy

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Re: "Double-Down" on late payments???
« Reply #21 on: September 07, 2013, 03:58:05 PM »
"(put another way, I got burned pretty bad when things slowed to a halt at the beginning of the year).  "

So did I.
But it was mainly February and March.  April picked up, but I was still getting burned by old notes I bought during the winter.  May thru August was very good.
Return over deposits:   66.82%
IRR:   86.54%
As of April 30, 2014

Joe6Luck

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"Double-Down" on late payments???
« Reply #22 on: September 07, 2013, 05:02:18 PM »
"(put another way, I got burned pretty bad when things slowed to a halt at the beginning of the year).  "

So did I.
But it was mainly February and March.  April picked up, but I was still getting burned by old notes I bought during the winter.  May thru August was very good.

What happened in Feb and March? Is it because late notes took longer to go back to Current or there were fewer buyers even when notes went back to Current?

I started to seriously use LC since May and to use folio after reading NJG's great post on it. Just wonder what could possible go wrong to buy notes from folio (especially the notes in trouble yet with high markdown).

Joe
« Last Edit: September 07, 2013, 08:17:55 PM by Joe6Luck »

New Jersey Guy

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Re: "Double-Down" on late payments???
« Reply #23 on: September 07, 2013, 05:14:23 PM »
"What happened in Feb and March?"

It's a question I have no answer to.

Nov. and Dec. were very good.
January was decent.
Feb. and March Tanked.
April, May, June, July, August were excellent.
September is starting out a little slow (but so did August).

I actually didn't do anything different during the first part of the year.  What was selling like hotcakes in December became doorstops in February.  Nobody was buying.....Period!

So come March, the notes I bought in December and January were really turning rotten.  During the last two weeks in March I had to dump this stuff before it went into default, almost all of it at a loss.  Still, I ended up with a few defaults the first part of April.
Return over deposits:   66.82%
IRR:   86.54%
As of April 30, 2014

core

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Re: "Double-Down" on late payments???
« Reply #24 on: September 07, 2013, 06:03:36 PM »
This was exactly my experience as well.  January I made decent money, then Feb and March were both just so-so.  A bit below average.  Then April rocked; I made about 3x what I normally do in a month, and just slightly less than that in May.  It's been just average for me since then.

As for why Feb/Mar were so bad, I have no clue.  I always thought the first quarter months were funky because of new LC investors/traders being surprised by the taxes owed (or the time necessary to calculate everything!), but I really don't know.

Now then.  Dare I taunt the man in the rubber room?  Yes I think I will:

That is the topic of discussion at, or after leaving, the BJ table............ for amateurs & weekenders.

If you're sitting at a table counting and try that hard to set yourself apart from the "amateurs" then you're going to be escorted out of there in short order.  The true pros look and act just like the amateurs because this superiority  business gets you discovered and tossed out.  Or worse, being detained by a DCI agent and having to explain why you're wearing a wig and lipstick. 

Fred

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Re: "Double-Down" on late payments???
« Reply #25 on: September 07, 2013, 06:45:37 PM »
I actually didn't do anything different during the first part of the year.  What was selling like hotcakes in December became doorstops in February.  Nobody was buying.....Period!

On Feb 1, 2013, the Dow Jones Industrial Average closed above 14,000 points for the first time since 2007.

People started fleeing the fixed-income world.

core

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Re: "Double-Down" on late payments???
« Reply #26 on: September 07, 2013, 07:06:05 PM »
On Feb 1, 2013, the Dow Jones Industrial Average closed above 14,000 points for the first time since 2007.

People started fleeing the fixed-income world.

Buy high, sell low?  Ah that might indeed explain some things.

New Jersey Guy

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Re: "Double-Down" on late payments???
« Reply #27 on: September 07, 2013, 08:06:28 PM »
"Buy high, sell low?"

Actually it was more like Buy Low, Sell near zero.
Return over deposits:   66.82%
IRR:   86.54%
As of April 30, 2014

DanB

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Re: "Double-Down" on late payments???
« Reply #28 on: September 07, 2013, 08:21:53 PM »
Core...........True "pros" haven't really used card counting as their main strategy for about 15 years now.
 I am certain that there are many things you can teach me..............From your comment, blackjack doesn't appear to be one of them. I was on a blackjack team full time for 3 summers, led by one of the guys who pretty much wrote the book on team strategy & even back then "card counting" was akin to tying your shoe laces in simplicity. No, it wasn't like the movie "21" either.

core

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Re: "Double-Down" on late payments???
« Reply #29 on: September 07, 2013, 08:35:45 PM »
Assuming you're not using an electronic device to track individual cards (which is still "counting"), then the only thing a team would be for, besides counting + big bettor, is outright cheating.  Hole card peeking, mucking, marking, etc.  There is no other way to make money at BJ legally.  Such things seem beneath you and I doubt you'd be stupid enough to admit employing such tactics on a public forum.

Now I know, you're going to come back with some vague response saying I just don't know the secret.  Yeah yeah.  Math doesn't lie.  There is no "secret".
« Last Edit: September 07, 2013, 08:37:26 PM by core »