Author Topic: The Stock Market Thread  (Read 11833 times)

DutchNurse

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The Stock Market Thread
« on: September 15, 2013, 06:21:19 PM »
It was suggested a another thread be created after the thread "How much is too much to invest in LC" kind of turned into a market thread.

Maybe we can post macroeconomic views, opinions about rates, and big news. This isn't the reason we are here, but I think the other thread made it clear that there is a wealth of knowledge out there which is hard to find.

I'm not sure how best to continue this thread, but, if there is enough interest maybe we can start with what we consider here to be ways to select a stock. It may be that we are only here for P2P lending, and that, of course is ok, but in case there is more interest in anything more on this topic I'll go first to spur on some conversation.

I lately make use of the screener on FinViz.com to fill my radar for 'possibles' and like to look for +current earnings, +annual earnings, +sales growth, +instituional ownship growth or accumulation. I guess in a very general overview I like to stay more or less to CANSLIM for my strategy, but i'll try own cyclicals, defensives, inflation sensitive stocks, and some interest sensitive stocks at the same time - although I am very leery about owning banks.

Currently long: CYOU, FII, GIII, GPS, HD, IBA, ITRN, LUV, NP, SGBI, SXL, TARO, TGI, TSN, UHAL, UNP, VLO, WLK, WX

I recently unloaded TSLA as I have thought for a while now that it's just too far ahead of itself.

I guess besides screener strategy and portfolio critique or comparisons, another topic for conversation could be something more along where we left off: manipulation of market metrics and is the market even a safe place anymore (and if not, where is!).

I really hate to take a doom and gloom approach to the world but are we really living a parallel of Plato's allegory, The Cave and is there any hope for humanity?   



AnilG

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Re: The Stock Market Thread
« Reply #1 on: September 15, 2013, 06:45:06 PM »
Majority of my portfolio is in mutual funds, index funds and ETFs. But I dabble into stocks too for fun. My current holdings are: FB, AAPL, C, PPO, AEE, DD, AG.

I use 13F filings to pick potential stocks for portfolio. I do a detailed financial analysis of company and investment valuation of stock if I am planning to hold stock for long-term.

Some of my favorite authors and books that my investment knowledge is based on:

Your Money or Your Life
The Millionaire Next Door,
A Random Walk Down Wall Street

Fundamental Analysis by John Ritchie
Books by James O'Shaughnessy, especially What Works on Wall Street
Books by Aswath Damodaran, especially Investment Valuation
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PeerCube Thoughts blog https://www.peercube.com/blog
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DutchNurse

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Re: The Stock Market Thread
« Reply #2 on: September 15, 2013, 10:06:25 PM »
I've read alot by O'Shaughnessy - What Works is a great book. I'll be looking into the others.

By the way Anil, checked out PeerCube and your blog bout 3 hours ago - haven't stopped reading. Thanks for all your work there.
« Last Edit: September 15, 2013, 10:08:03 PM by DutchNurse »

Xin

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Re: The Stock Market Thread
« Reply #3 on: October 02, 2013, 12:03:46 AM »
I know nearly nothing of what has been mentioned in this thread already.


I'm long on some Vanguard core index funds. VTSAX, VBTLX (IRA only), VTIAX.

I exchanged all my VTSAX US stocks for VBTLX bonds following the govt. shutdown, and will keep them in this safer asset for a few months. Yes, I know this is market timing...but if the US defaults it'll be worth it. If not, I won't have missed out on much (probably)

My 10k in VTSAX taxable i leave untouched. I would've moved it but i've held <365 days and don't wanna pay the tax.

Cries

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Re: The Stock Market Thread
« Reply #4 on: October 30, 2013, 06:00:00 PM »
My PA

Longs: INFU, AMZKF, ABCP, AAPL, AIG, VOYA
Short: LOCK
Sold this year: SALM, HES, BCOR, TSRA, POST, ADT, ADES

I dont index.  I like concentration.

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Information herein also may pertain to unregistered securities; accordingly, such information may not be disseminated or used in any manner that would be deemed a general solicitation. This is not an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any security.
« Last Edit: October 30, 2013, 06:04:54 PM by Cries »

Xin

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Re: The Stock Market Thread
« Reply #5 on: November 03, 2013, 01:18:07 AM »
My PA

Longs: INFU, AMZKF, ABCP, AAPL, AIG, VOYA
Short: LOCK
Sold this year: SALM, HES, BCOR, TSRA, POST, ADT, ADES

I dont index.  I like concentration.

--
Information herein also may pertain to unregistered securities; accordingly, such information may not be disseminated or used in any manner that would be deemed a general solicitation. This is not an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any security.


Why do you not like diversification?

mo

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Re: The Stock Market Thread
« Reply #6 on: November 03, 2013, 03:02:08 AM »
I'm all in on BitCoin

Cries

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Re: The Stock Market Thread
« Reply #7 on: November 04, 2013, 07:39:36 PM »
My PA

Longs: INFU, AMZKF, ABCP, AAPL, AIG, VOYA
Short: LOCK
Sold this year: SALM, HES, BCOR, TSRA, POST, ADT, ADES

I dont index.  I like concentration.

--
Information herein also may pertain to unregistered securities; accordingly, such information may not be disseminated or used in any manner that would be deemed a general solicitation. This is not an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any security.


Why do you not like diversification?

1) I think I can do better than a market basket.

2) I like being able to create a low beta portfolio that is insulated against market pukes.  It also helps that Im buying into these positions at very low valuations (or insanely high valuations, in the case of shorts).

In addition - I generally try not to mindlessly buy broad baskets of securities at market tops.  Instead, I'd be a seller of those security baskets.  I feel like now is a particularly bad time to hold a market portfolio. 


toiletpaper55

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Re: The Stock Market Thread
« Reply #8 on: January 08, 2014, 06:21:44 PM »
Long ALXN, LNKD, FB, YHOO, DDD, RLGS

Short GLD, TWTR

thoughts?

toiletpaper55

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Re: The Stock Market Thread
« Reply #9 on: January 08, 2014, 06:22:52 PM »
Long ALXN, LNKD, FB, YHOO, DDD, RLGS

Short GLD, TWTR

thoughts?

And considering long TSLA and short SALE

Bohb Daishi

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Re: The Stock Market Thread
« Reply #10 on: January 09, 2014, 02:04:32 AM »
Long ALXN, LNKD, FB, YHOO, DDD, RLGS

Short GLD, TWTR

thoughts?

And considering long TSLA and short SALE

I wouldn't go anywhere near social media stocks right now. They are too fundamentally similar to the dotcom bubble. At current multiples, you are paying for zero current earnings and very high expected growth over the next 10 years. That's a lot of time for things to go wrong, or for a stock to lose favor with the market/customers. Just look at Myspace - the moment "Tom" sold the company, they decided to monetize it and every user fled. Or look at AOL - a high-growth company with "stellar prospects" that was worth some $150+ billion in 2000, only to be worth $3.5 billion now. And just like Facebook, everyone used their service. The only difference is that people actually paid to use AOL, unlike modern social media.
There are three ways to make a living in this business: be first, be smarter, or cheat.

toiletpaper55

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Re: The Stock Market Thread
« Reply #11 on: January 09, 2014, 08:09:54 AM »
Long ALXN, LNKD, FB, YHOO, DDD, RLGS

Short GLD, TWTR

thoughts?

And considering long TSLA and short SALE

I wouldn't go anywhere near social media stocks right now. They are too fundamentally similar to the dotcom bubble. At current multiples, you are paying for zero current earnings and very high expected growth over the next 10 years. That's a lot of time for things to go wrong, or for a stock to lose favor with the market/customers. Just look at Myspace - the moment "Tom" sold the company, they decided to monetize it and every user fled. Or look at AOL - a high-growth company with "stellar prospects" that was worth some $150+ billion in 2000, only to be worth $3.5 billion now. And just like Facebook, everyone used their service. The only difference is that people actually paid to use AOL, unlike modern social media.

thanks for your thoughts...agreed that "valuations" for internet/tech maybe a bit high or "fluffy" right now but what other sectors are outperforming? and is this not a similar case with biotech and pharma? tbh, i generally just follow trends as i have little/no valuation or industry experience to study fundamentals (value investing-esque). do you think the internet space has matured a bit since the AOL days...in terms of infrastructure and advertising? goog makes like 97%+ of revenue from search...

this being said, i'm (relatively) young and have very little long term perspective so your thoughts and (longer) term time frames are much appreciated!!

Bohb Daishi

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Re: The Stock Market Thread
« Reply #12 on: January 10, 2014, 03:47:32 AM »
I wouldn't go anywhere near social media stocks right now. They are too fundamentally similar to the dotcom bubble. At current multiples, you are paying for zero current earnings and very high expected growth over the next 10 years. That's a lot of time for things to go wrong, or for a stock to lose favor with the market/customers. Just look at Myspace - the moment "Tom" sold the company, they decided to monetize it and every user fled. Or look at AOL - a high-growth company with "stellar prospects" that was worth some $150+ billion in 2000, only to be worth $3.5 billion now. And just like Facebook, everyone used their service. The only difference is that people actually paid to use AOL, unlike modern social media.

thanks for your thoughts...agreed that "valuations" for internet/tech maybe a bit high or "fluffy" right now but what other sectors are outperforming? and is this not a similar case with biotech and pharma? tbh, i generally just follow trends as i have little/no valuation or industry experience to study fundamentals (value investing-esque). do you think the internet space has matured a bit since the AOL days...in terms of infrastructure and advertising? goog makes like 97%+ of revenue from search...

this being said, i'm (relatively) young and have very little long term perspective so your thoughts and (longer) term time frames are much appreciated!!

Unless you are talking about giants like Johnson & Johnson or Pfizer, Biotech/pharma is a different game than the rest of the stock market. That entire sector is hinged heavily either on FDA approval or on positive study results, as opposed to normal metrics like revenue growth and cash flow.

If you are still new at investing (i.e. haven't been active for 5+ years), be prepared to get burned multiple times. My best advice for you starting out is to have only a small amount of cash (say, no more than 20%) in hand-picked stocks, while putting the rest in a diversified ETF like the S&P500. Even if you have a finance degree, you still need 5-10 years at the School of Hard Knocks before you will start outperforming the market on a remotely-consistent basis. The key is not just knowing how to value a company, but also knowing when to buy/sell/hold and how to take emotion out of your investments. Most important, you need to develop a time-tested method for investing. Find out what works for you, and do it over and over again.
There are three ways to make a living in this business: be first, be smarter, or cheat.

rawraw

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Re: The Stock Market Thread
« Reply #13 on: January 11, 2014, 09:45:37 AM »
Long ALXN, LNKD, FB, YHOO, DDD, RLGS

Short GLD, TWTR

thoughts?

And considering long TSLA and short SALE

I wouldn't go anywhere near social media stocks right now. They are too fundamentally similar to the dotcom bubble. At current multiples, you are paying for zero current earnings and very high expected growth over the next 10 years. That's a lot of time for things to go wrong, or for a stock to lose favor with the market/customers. Just look at Myspace - the moment "Tom" sold the company, they decided to monetize it and every user fled. Or look at AOL - a high-growth company with "stellar prospects" that was worth some $150+ billion in 2000, only to be worth $3.5 billion now. And just like Facebook, everyone used their service. The only difference is that people actually paid to use AOL, unlike modern social media.

thanks for your thoughts...agreed that "valuations" for internet/tech maybe a bit high or "fluffy" right now but what other sectors are outperforming? and is this not a similar case with biotech and pharma? tbh, i generally just follow trends as i have little/no valuation or industry experience to study fundamentals (value investing-esque). do you think the internet space has matured a bit since the AOL days...in terms of infrastructure and advertising? goog makes like 97%+ of revenue from search...

this being said, i'm (relatively) young and have very little long term perspective so your thoughts and (longer) term time frames are much appreciated!!
Just buy index funds.

toiletpaper55

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Re: The Stock Market Thread
« Reply #14 on: January 13, 2014, 10:00:27 AM »
Long ALXN, LNKD, FB, YHOO, DDD, RLGS

Short GLD, TWTR

thoughts?

And considering long TSLA and short SALE

I wouldn't go anywhere near social media stocks right now. They are too fundamentally similar to the dotcom bubble. At current multiples, you are paying for zero current earnings and very high expected growth over the next 10 years. That's a lot of time for things to go wrong, or for a stock to lose favor with the market/customers. Just look at Myspace - the moment "Tom" sold the company, they decided to monetize it and every user fled. Or look at AOL - a high-growth company with "stellar prospects" that was worth some $150+ billion in 2000, only to be worth $3.5 billion now. And just like Facebook, everyone used their service. The only difference is that people actually paid to use AOL, unlike modern social media.

thanks for your thoughts...agreed that "valuations" for internet/tech maybe a bit high or "fluffy" right now but what other sectors are outperforming? and is this not a similar case with biotech and pharma? tbh, i generally just follow trends as i have little/no valuation or industry experience to study fundamentals (value investing-esque). do you think the internet space has matured a bit since the AOL days...in terms of infrastructure and advertising? goog makes like 97%+ of revenue from search...

this being said, i'm (relatively) young and have very little long term perspective so your thoughts and (longer) term time frames are much appreciated!!
Just buy index funds.

agreed; my (small) 401k that i started is in 25% "new horizons" fund, 25% large cap, 25% 2045 retirement and 25% "lifestrategy" growth...not sure if i can use index etfs as part of plan...