Author Topic: Consensus question  (Read 9113 times)

AmCap

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Consensus question
« on: September 19, 2013, 06:10:37 PM »
Hey team - looking for you guys to weigh in. What's the community consensus on a benchmark return. Give me insight on your reasoning,  if possible.  I am not gonna be more specific just yet.

New Jersey Guy

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Re: Consensus question
« Reply #1 on: September 19, 2013, 07:02:33 PM »
I've got 3 different portfolios of Buy/Hold notes.

My returns are 15.25%, 15.91% and $14.36%

Considering the risk and the time I spend with LC each week, I'd be happy if the 3 portfolios averaged at least 13.5%

Those figures do not include my speculative notes.  I keep those in separate portfolios and I frankly don't care what interest they pay.
Return over deposits:   66.82%
IRR:   86.54%
As of April 30, 2014

core

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Re: Consensus question
« Reply #2 on: September 19, 2013, 09:40:04 PM »
I am not gonna be more specific just yet.

What exactly does this mean?  You are doing a grand survey but are only going to ask the "real" questions "later"?

What's the community consensus on a benchmark return. Give me insight on your reasoning,  if possible. 

There is no consensus.  There can never be.  The "insight on my reasoning" is that different people make different returns because they make different decisions.

PennySaved

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Re: Consensus question
« Reply #3 on: September 19, 2013, 11:23:51 PM »
What is a benchmark return?

Fred

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Re: Consensus question
« Reply #4 on: September 19, 2013, 11:42:00 PM »
My NAR is currently about 15%, but I am expecting this to go down as time passes.

So my target return is 12%.

PennySaved

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Re: Consensus question
« Reply #5 on: September 19, 2013, 11:57:37 PM »
My XIRR from 3/11/09 to 8/31/13 is 9.09%

rawraw

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Re: Consensus question
« Reply #6 on: September 20, 2013, 06:40:34 AM »
I try to maintain a 10.5% return.  That would be roughly 8% return after a 25% tax rate.  The bottom is 8% return and 2% inflation.


         8%     2%   Real Gains (Spread)
Initial   100   100   0
Year 1   108   102   6
Year 2   117   104   13
Year 3   126   106   20
Year 4   136   108   28
Year 5   147   110   37
Year 6   159   113   46
Year 7   171   115   57
Year 8   185   117   68
Year 9   200   120   80
Year 10   216   122   94
Year 11   233   124   109
Year 12   252   127   125
Year 13   272   129   143
Year 14   294   132   162
Year 15   317   135   183
Year 16   343   137   205


That's my goal.
« Last Edit: September 20, 2013, 06:43:15 AM by rawraw »

dontvote

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Re: Consensus question
« Reply #7 on: September 20, 2013, 02:05:35 PM »
not sure I understand the question either but your 'benchmark' should be the naive investment given your most basic criteria. If you are a c,d,e investor take your (probably weighted average) of the chart below

https://www.lendingclub.com/public/images/51908/content/marketing/hero-risk-v-return.png

if you invest only in wedding loans, find your benchie here

https://www.lendingclub.com/info/demand-and-credit-profile.action

if you want to benchmark your decision to invest in LC, that's a different story

since people are posting their return goals here, mine is 11%. I'll exit the asset class at 5%, make a living off of it at 18%. Lets say I haven't quit my day job.
dontvote

Interest Radar IRR: 46.11%
NSR ROI: 41.22%
Average Loan Age: Your Moms

AmCap

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Re: Consensus question
« Reply #8 on: September 20, 2013, 02:13:44 PM »
Sorry, didn't mean to be confusing.  I am just trying to find the best standard to compare different investing investing strategies,  so I thought I'd see what you guys thought.

dontvote

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Re: Consensus question
« Reply #9 on: September 20, 2013, 02:33:20 PM »
you can compare anything on a risk adjusted basis like a sharpe ratio (money is money, after all)

getting a risk adjusted basis is a bit trickier for this investment.
dontvote

Interest Radar IRR: 46.11%
NSR ROI: 41.22%
Average Loan Age: Your Moms

rlv99

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Re: Consensus question
« Reply #10 on: September 21, 2013, 01:08:44 AM »
My personal situation may be different from most other investors.  I've been retired from a regular "job" for 17 years.  I do some venture capital stuff when the opportunity presents itself.  I have never really been into fixed income assets other than tax-free bonds and junk bonds way-back-when.

LC fills my time between golf and other activities, and gets me up before 9 ET.  However, for it to command my attention, as well as a continuous flow of funds, as it now does, I require an IRR >11% which I can comfortly exceed, currently, with a present-day 15.52% NAR.  And this can be increased by liquidating the B notes in my portfolio which I purchased during the first few months on LC.






cfb

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Re: Consensus question
« Reply #11 on: September 21, 2013, 05:00:31 PM »
Returns?  They'll depend.  I see many investors that swear by buying "safe" A and B grade notes.  With all things being equal, they've pretty much limited their upside returns to something in the 4-12% range before taxes, making assumptions that everything (the economy, job situations, etc) are the same for the next 5 years as they've been for the last 5.  I say that because every bit of data used and all the automated systems are using historic data from a statistically small slice of time during which borrowers faced an extremely difficult economic/jobs situation.  And we have no idea whats going to happen going forward.  This is not as bad as looking at the stock markets performance for the last 5-6 years and presuming that the next 5-6 will be about the same, but its in the ballpark.

Investors that go for high risk/high default rate loans will probably come out ahead.  But asking what they have now depends on when they started, their note selection criteria (which probably changed over time), whether they're buying notes just to resell to take advantage of the shortage of notes and states that don't allow new loan purchases, etc.  Things that may be resolved sooner or later.  Many are also taking advantage of what I'm guessing are poorly educated buyers on the secondary market.  That might "improve" or not.  Many also have a bulk of their portfolio that was assembled when decent notes were available almost around the clock, or they've added risk by employing a 3rd party buying service.  Now "good" notes are less available, only for short times, and only if you have fast fingers or use an automated tool, although those haven't even been fast enough at times recently.

When I first evaluated LC as an asset class I did look at the historical data but frankly discounted it to a good degree because it was negatively tilted as having occurred during the worst economic period in decades, because the systems and investors were very new, and because lenders and borrowers weren't as savvy to the process as they are now.  Consider selling on ebay the first two years it was around vs today, if you have that experience. 

So after having a look at the longer term effects such as the number of people likely to die while you're holding their unsecured loan, the lean towards people who think consolidating ALL of their debt to get "one payment" when the interest rates on some of it was lower or the people who think paying 25% for a car loan is a good idea (these folks are financial idiots, and they'll manage their money appropriately), the odds of a second dip in the economy or continued sideways malaise like we had in the 60's-mid 80's, the likelihood of a surge in inflation, etc...I came to the conclusion that even a pedestrian lender should be able to make at least 5-6% and someone doing it for 20 years with a decent education in note picking could probably do as well as 12 or 13%.  I think anything over that would involve lots of work exploiting the inefficiencies in the system and keeping up with those as they'll change over time and the window may become narrower and narrower, and the competition for those inefficiencies greater.

So IMO this is akin to asking people who just started investing in the stock market in 2008 or 2009 and only have data going back that far what their returns are and what they expect.  Probably not a whole lot like what its going to be for the next 5-6, and probably not the same as the 5-6 after that.

The current darling strategy of E-G notes that meet certain criteria may turn badly if some aspects of the economy go south.  If inflation comes roaring in, the Fed has absolutely not one thing to use except driving up interest rates, and costs may force many people to decide whether to buy food and pay the rent or pay their LC loan.  Businesses will reduce head count, raise prices, and many that are just barely making it will go under.  Unemployment will surge.  You may see 30-40% default rates on those 'on the edge' borrowers.  That may be a low estimate.

My feeling is that I can get at least 5-6% out of this even if things go badly, and that's just way better than anything else out there given the current levels of the stock market, persistent low interest rates on fixed income, rising real estate prices in my region, etc.  Sucks to take on this much risk, but that's a much better return than I can get with a bond or a cd.  If I do better I'll be happy, but I also have taken this on as a shorter term investment and don't plan to do it for more than another 4-5 years.  In fact, given the lousy performance of the web site, the poor availability of notes, the reported errors in processing correct payment amounts, etc...I'm just going to let what I own age out and hope I can get a lower risk fixed income asset class to replace it in the next 3-5 years.  I'm doubtful of seeing that as I think it'll take 7 or 8 years to normalize interest rates without killing the economy, but LC is starting to look like a ship that's taking on water.  Things usually look at their best when a company is approaching an IPO.  This doesn't look that great considering the range of problems but without reading this site I might not even be aware of some of them, although they do have an effect.

Plus like rlv99 I've used this as a bit of a hobby as well, so there's that...

Lovinglifestyle

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Re: Consensus question
« Reply #12 on: September 21, 2013, 09:55:22 PM »
"Many also have a bulk of their portfolio that was assembled when decent notes were available almost around the clock, or they've added risk by employing a 3rd party buying service.  Now "good" notes are less available, only for short times, and only if you have fast fingers or use an automated tool, although those haven't even been fast enough at times recently."  --from cfb

This is what's bothering me, except I don't use an auto-buy service.  I feel intuitively that my portfolio quality is going in the wrong direction for all the reasons you have stated.

I enjoyed reading your whole post, and thank you for the time, thought, and expertise that went into it!



johnbpt

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Re: Consensus question
« Reply #13 on: December 30, 2013, 02:13:04 AM »
Flexible and cost effective services.

core

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Re: Consensus question
« Reply #14 on: December 30, 2013, 02:57:11 AM »
Flexible and cost effective services.

Welcome to the forum, John.  You sure picked an interesting thread to bump, after that whole deal a few weeks back with Rev and AmCap.  Which you don't necessarily know about since you just joined.  Oh, I see in your forum profile you have a web site.  And it's selling something.  *gasp*   Ok never mind.

Speaking of that AmCap deal, that reminds me:  We haven't heard a peep about it since then.  No major partnership announcements.  But I see Mr. Baker has either deleted or made private his Facebook page private after that.  Give us the scoop, AmCap!  Conspiratorial minds want to know.