Author Topic: Loans from Black Friday to after Cyber Monday  (Read 4077 times)

Inflationhawk

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Loans from Black Friday to after Cyber Monday
« on: November 30, 2013, 09:54:56 AM »
I have been building an analytical tool and I'm researching different scenarios.  Here is an interesting one:
This is looking at only 36 month loans.
For loans listed from November 1 through Thanksgiving (11/22) in 2012, here were the Current/Paid rates vs. late payments as of mid November this year.
GRADE   Crrnt/Paid       Grace/16-30       Chg/Df/31+  # Loans
A           96.9%       0.2%               2.9%              651
B           95.1%       0.9%               4.0%            1392
C           94.2%       0.7%               5.1%              863
D           93.1%       1.5%               5.4%              467
E           92.8%       1.4%               5.8%                69
F           90.0%       0.0%               10.0%              10

For loans listed from the day after Thanksgiving (11/23/12) thru the day after Cyber Monday (11/27/12), here were the Current/Paid rates vs. late payments as of mid November this year.
GRADE   Crrnt/Paid      Grace/16-30     Chg/Df/31    # Loans
A           97.6%       0.8%               1.6%              127
B           93.4%       1.5%               5.1%              273
C           90.4%       2.4%               7.2%              166
D           92.0%       4.5%               3.4%                88
E           83.3%       0.0%             16.7%                12
F         100.0%       0.0%               0.0%                  2

I think I'll lay low over the next few days!  B and Cs have been my primary targets.

Inflationhawk

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Re: Loans from Black Friday to after Cyber Monday
« Reply #1 on: November 30, 2013, 12:55:29 PM »
I attached an excel file showing the data for each Black Friday thru Cyber Monday period from 2007 to 2012. 

[attachment deleted by admin]

sociallender

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Re: Loans from Black Friday to after Cyber Monday
« Reply #2 on: November 30, 2013, 09:22:15 PM »
Thanks for sharing your data analysis.  I am interested in knowing your thoughts/conclusions on the significance of cyber monday and black friday as it relates to credit risk.  What are your thoughts on this overall analysis?

SL

pplinvestor

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Re: Loans from Black Friday to after Cyber Monday
« Reply #3 on: November 30, 2013, 10:15:42 PM »
You draw conclusion and change your lending behavior based on single-digit # of notes charged-off?  That's what you have in your files. 

I have been building an analytical tool and I'm researching different scenarios.  Here is an interesting one:
This is looking at only 36 month loans.
For loans listed from November 1 through Thanksgiving (11/22) in 2012, here were the Current/Paid rates vs. late payments as of mid November this year.
GRADE   Crrnt/Paid       Grace/16-30       Chg/Df/31+  # Loans
A           96.9%       0.2%               2.9%              651
B           95.1%       0.9%               4.0%            1392
C           94.2%       0.7%               5.1%              863
D           93.1%       1.5%               5.4%              467
E           92.8%       1.4%               5.8%                69
F           90.0%       0.0%               10.0%              10

For loans listed from the day after Thanksgiving (11/23/12) thru the day after Cyber Monday (11/27/12), here were the Current/Paid rates vs. late payments as of mid November this year.
GRADE   Crrnt/Paid      Grace/16-30     Chg/Df/31    # Loans
A           97.6%       0.8%               1.6%              127
B           93.4%       1.5%               5.1%              273
C           90.4%       2.4%               7.2%              166
D           92.0%       4.5%               3.4%                88
E           83.3%       0.0%             16.7%                12
F         100.0%       0.0%               0.0%                  2

I think I'll lay low over the next few days!  B and Cs have been my primary targets.

Inflationhawk

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Re: Loans from Black Friday to after Cyber Monday
« Reply #4 on: November 30, 2013, 10:50:00 PM »
After running more years of data during this time there really isn't much consistency.  2011 actually resulted in better performance.  Other years were significantly worse but not enough data to form a reliable thesis.  It probably takes longer for free spenders to realize what they've done to themselves on Black Friday and cyber Monday before they run out and apply for a loan.

Never mind looking at a few days data, what's really scary is looking at returns for loans purchased more than 2 years ago.  It looks like double digit returns are very doable in the first year (it's almost hard not to), but it goes downhill thereafter when the defaults start adding up.  Even with diversifying with a few hundred loans those defaults eat away at your return.  I don't see much chance of losing money though so long as the economy doesn't tank and default rates spike.  I'd be very happy with a 6 to 7 percent annual return over 3 years.

faeriering

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Re: Loans from Black Friday to after Cyber Monday
« Reply #5 on: December 01, 2013, 10:18:51 AM »
ken from lend stats always talked about selling notes after 12 months usually the ones with good payment records would go for a bit of a bonus.  So if you were selecting loans that wouldn't default (or go late in the first 12 months, but might after that) would that change your selection criteria? :)

Inflationhawk

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Re: Loans from Black Friday to after Cyber Monday
« Reply #6 on: December 01, 2013, 02:57:10 PM »
Yes, that would help, but unfortunately I'm in an IRA and cannot sell on Folio....at least not until LC changes their current policy. 

I'm expanding a lot on my tool and getting a better understanding of the data each day.  I might turn this into a website.  I did a very basic analytical tool for calculating your personal inflation rate here: myinflationrate.com