Author Topic: Beware the 20th of March  (Read 20156 times)

yojoakak

  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 763
    • View Profile
    • Check out my Greasemonkey/Tampermonkey script for LendingClub here
    • Email
Beware the 20th of March
« on: December 11, 2013, 03:21:51 PM »
Or the 20th of any month actually. That seems to be the day LendingClub turns Late notes into Charged Off notes. And maybe the 5th as well.

Whatever the case, since about June my returns have been near 0%.

I'm not sure if it's just been a spate of bad luck, or (more likely) some astute investors have been peddling their Current-but-Doomed notes on Foliofn at discounts just big enough to get me to bite (in which case I congratulate you, whoever you may be).

Anyone else having the same experience?

New Jersey Guy

  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 914
  • Hell Yea it's a Hemi!
    • View Profile
    • Email
Re: Beware the 20th of March
« Reply #1 on: December 11, 2013, 05:07:22 PM »
I don't know, but this really seems like a case of "User-Fault".  Meaning, nobody forces you to hit that "Buy" button regardless of whatever stunts the sellers might be using!

0% returns?  C'mon!  The newbie investors at the Hellen Keller school are getting better returns than that!

Your post, though, isn't without some merit. 

I'm still seeing notes that are "Processing" up for sale on Folio.  So yes, the cheats are out there.

My inventory of speculative notes is still down 65% of what it was end of October.  The Interest Radar melt-down surely didn't help as I was unable to buy any note during that period.  However, I'm still having problems finding notes that fit my criteria.  I also noticed this right before the meltdown, too.  This has been forcing me to buy notes that I would have otherwise passed on in October.   So yea, I am taking more risk, and I have a feeling that will begin to catch up with me come January.

As far as Buy/Hold notes?  I haven't had much of a problem there.  As a matter of fact, shopping for these notes has been pretty fruitful.  I just wish I had more money!  My IRR for these notes is right around 13.8%.  I have just a few late notes.  I've only been forced to sell 2 sour notes on Folio since June and I've had no defaults.

Return over deposits:   66.82%
IRR:   86.54%
As of April 30, 2014

yojoakak

  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 763
    • View Profile
    • Check out my Greasemonkey/Tampermonkey script for LendingClub here
    • Email
Re: Beware the 20th of March
« Reply #2 on: December 11, 2013, 08:55:29 PM »
I don't know, but this really seems like a case of "User-Fault".  Meaning, nobody forces you to hit that "Buy" button regardless of whatever stunts the sellers might be using!


You totally seem to have misunderstood my post.

We're talking Current notes, nothing marginal. No 4 days past due date, not even Processing. Not a single entry in the Collection Log. At worst they have a small decline in FICO. But 4 or 5 months later they go down the toilet.

So either I've got terrible luck, the economy is in a lot worse shape than anyone knows, or someone out there is predicting defaults MONTHS in advance on MINIMAL information. 

If anything I'm in awe of their clairvoyant-like predictive abilities.
« Last Edit: December 11, 2013, 09:04:06 PM by yojoakak »

New Jersey Guy

  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 914
  • Hell Yea it's a Hemi!
    • View Profile
    • Email
Re: Beware the 20th of March
« Reply #3 on: December 11, 2013, 09:08:20 PM »
"If anything I'm in awe of their predictive abilities."

Aw, c'mon!  Even the almighty Core couldn't even predict that!

What are the average age of these notes you are buying?
Keep in mind missed payments reach their peak right around an average age of 12 months, then come the defaults.

If you are buying notes that are 5,6 7 or 8 months old only to have them go bad a few months later, you need to look at more seasoned notes. 

If the notes you purchase are over 15 months old and going bad one after another, well, then I would say it's bad luck!

Return over deposits:   66.82%
IRR:   86.54%
As of April 30, 2014

core

  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 1790
  • Your loss is my gain
    • View Profile
Re: Beware the 20th of March
« Reply #4 on: December 11, 2013, 09:19:01 PM »
Aw, c'mon!  Even the almighty Core couldn't even predict that!

Quite correct.  I wouldn't be able to predict a default 4-5 months in advance.  However someone with access to the real collection log, or knowledge of what was said on a borrower phone call, certainly could. 

DanB

  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 665
  • A lie told often enough becomes The Truth!
    • View Profile
Re: Beware the 20th of March
« Reply #5 on: December 11, 2013, 10:28:16 PM »
Aw, c'mon!  Even the almighty Core couldn't even predict that!

Quite correct.  I wouldn't be able to predict a default 4-5 months in advance.  However someone with access to the real collection log, or knowledge of what was said on a borrower phone call, certainly could. 

I wasn't going to say anything, but I know that you've come to expect me to so here goes.
There was no second shooter, there was no cover up in Roswell & I assure you that there is no "real" collection log.............that you need to be aware of.  :)

core

  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 1790
  • Your loss is my gain
    • View Profile
Re: Beware the 20th of March
« Reply #6 on: December 11, 2013, 10:49:39 PM »
Dan if you were part of or had knowledge of the scheme then you would attempt to convince us that no scheme existed.  If you don't have such knowledge, then you wouldn't know the answer one way or the other.  So logically, your statements cannot be trusted.

And of course there is a real collection log.  LC couldn't conduct its business properly if all they had to go on in the notes was "Borrower contacted Lending Club".  You don't need to be a conspiracy theorist to accept the possibility that some lowly support rep making $30k in an expensive city might be tempted to use his/her inside knowledge to boost their income a bit by selling information to a 3rd party.

Funny that you should use the phrase "that you need to be aware of".  I realize it was said in jest, but this reminds me of all those other things that we "didn't need to be aware of" but yet a sinister network of various journalists did "need to be aware of".  A 'need' depends on who's doing the deciding.

New Jersey Guy

  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 914
  • Hell Yea it's a Hemi!
    • View Profile
    • Email
Re: Beware the 20th of March
« Reply #7 on: December 11, 2013, 11:24:26 PM »
"There was no second shooter, there was no cover up in Roswell & I assure you that there is no "real" collection log.............that you need to be aware of"

When DanB was 5 years old, he's the kid that sent the entire kindergarten class home crying after telling them Santa is a fake, fraud and doesn't exist.

Although, I'm not sure how any of this pertains to Yojoakak's original post.
Return over deposits:   66.82%
IRR:   86.54%
As of April 30, 2014

DanB

  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 665
  • A lie told often enough becomes The Truth!
    • View Profile
Re: Beware the 20th of March
« Reply #8 on: December 11, 2013, 11:35:04 PM »
Dan if you were part of or had knowledge of the scheme then you would attempt to convince us that no scheme existed.  If you don't have such knowledge, then you wouldn't know the answer one way or the other. So logically, your statements cannot be trusted.

And of course there is a real collection log.  LC couldn't conduct its business properly if all they had to go on in the notes was "Borrower contacted Lending Club".  You don't need to be a conspiracy theorist to accept the possibility that some lowly support rep making $30k in an expensive city might be tempted to use his/her inside knowledge to boost their income a bit by selling information to a 3rd party.

Funny that you should use the phrase "that you need to be aware of".  I realize it was said in jest, but this reminds me of all those other things that we "didn't need to be aware of" but yet a sinister network of various journalists did "need to be aware of".  A 'need' depends on who's doing the deciding.

So you believe there was a second shooter & there was a Roswell cover up then? What were they covering up in Roswell?
There's no one at LC making $30k a year, ok.
Is anyone we know among the "sinister network of various journalists"?
BTW, what is the minimum number required in order to be called a network?
Who in fact is deciding, is not something you need to know. :)




core

  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 1790
  • Your loss is my gain
    • View Profile
Re: Beware the 20th of March
« Reply #9 on: December 11, 2013, 11:44:01 PM »
There's no one at LC making $30k a year, ok.

How do you know this?  One moment you're saying you have nothing to do with LC, and then next moment you're coming off like the CFO or Laplanche's wife.  I distinctly remember posts on this very forum discussing a few positions where the salary was, shall we say, not all that high.  The source of the information was LC's open positions page.  I don't know if archive.org has snapshots of it.  If I didn't have to be away this weekend I'd look into it.

BTW, what is the minimum number required in order to be called a network?

Same definition as "several".
As for who is a member, I don't know.  That makes it all the more sinister.

New Jersey Guy-  All of this does have everything to do with yojoakak's original post if in fact someone is selling current notes at a slight discount and they mysteriously default soon after.  They got the information somewhere.  According to Occam's razor it's an inside job... _if_ anything is going on at all.  I would like to have some note IDs so I can put my investigative skills to work.  If I can determine the same person sold them then that would look very suspicious.

DanB

  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 665
  • A lie told often enough becomes The Truth!
    • View Profile
Re: Beware the 20th of March
« Reply #10 on: December 11, 2013, 11:55:53 PM »
There's no one at LC making $30k a year, ok.

How do you know this?  One moment you're saying you have nothing to do with LC, and then next moment you're coming off like the CFO or Laplanche's wife.  I distinctly remember posts on this very forum discussing a few positions where the salary was, shall we say, not all that high.  The source of the information was LC's open positions page.  I don't know if archive.org has snapshots of it.  If I didn't have to be away this weekend I'd look into it.

BTW, what is the minimum number required in order to be called a network?

Same definition as "several".
As for who is a member, I don't know.  That makes it all the more sinister.

New Jersey Guy-  All of this does have everything to do with yojoakak's original post if in fact someone is selling current notes at a slight discount and they mysteriously default soon after.  They got the information somewhere.  According to Occam's razor it's an inside job... _if_ anything is going on at all.  I would like to have some note IDs so I can put my investigative skills to work.  If I can determine the same person sold them then that would look very suspicious.

Of course as you know, I am usually completely wrong.  :)  How I know, is not something you need to know.

I would agree with you on this.............but only if we are using the conventional definition of "several" & not the Renton definition.

Bohb Daishi

  • Sr. Member
  • ****
  • Posts: 481
  • I eat free lunches
    • View Profile
Re: Beware the 20th of March
« Reply #11 on: December 12, 2013, 03:45:10 AM »
Or the 20th of any month actually. That seems to be the day LendingClub turns Late notes into Charged Off notes. And maybe the 5th as well.

I just glanced at my 7 charge-offs. It looks like you are on to something - the payment due dates were all across the board, but each note seemed to charge off between the 20th and 23rd (once on the 30th). Can someone else confirm that charge-offs typically occur on or around the 20th of each month?

There's no one at LC making $30k a year, ok.
How do you know this?  One moment you're saying you have nothing to do with LC, and then next moment you're coming off like the CFO or Laplanche's wife.  I distinctly remember posts on this very forum discussing a few positions where the salary was, shall we say, not all that high.  The source of the information was LC's open positions page.  I don't know if archive.org has snapshots of it.  If I didn't have to be away this weekend I'd look into it.

Or you could simply go to http://www.glassdoor.com/Salary/LendingClub-Salaries-E349061.htm and look what people have posted. "Credit Specialist" is $40-47k and "Member Support Representative" is $43-47k. I assume the collections reps are paid on the low end of that, or even less.

And of course there is a real collection log.  LC couldn't conduct its business properly if all they had to go on in the notes was "Borrower contacted Lending Club".
Core is correct here. I used to work in two different call centers, one doing collections, and I can confirm that reps are always expected to keep a detailed notes in an internal log. However, LendingClub would not be able to disclose that detailed log information because of the high likelihood that it includes some personally-identifiable information. Instead, they simply control the risk by displaying generic log entries. I would even go as far as to say that the log entries we see aren't actually created manually by a human. Instead, they are automatically created the moment the rep opens the borrower's account and/or clicks on specific areas in their software (i.e. after setting up the details of a payment plan, the rep hits "done" and it automatically creates the log entry).


You don't need to be a conspiracy theorist to accept the possibility that some lowly support rep making $30k in an expensive city might be tempted to use his/her inside knowledge to boost their income a bit by selling information to a 3rd party.

I will shamelessly admit that, if the price is right, I might be willing to pay for that information.  ;)
There are three ways to make a living in this business: be first, be smarter, or cheat.

DanB

  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 665
  • A lie told often enough becomes The Truth!
    • View Profile
Re: Beware the 20th of March
« Reply #12 on: December 12, 2013, 04:52:38 AM »
Or the 20th of any month actually. That seems to be the day LendingClub turns Late notes into Charged Off notes. And maybe the 5th as well.

I just glanced at my 7 charge-offs. It looks like you are on to something - the payment due dates were all across the board, but each note seemed to charge off between the 20th and 23rd (once on the 30th). Can someone else confirm that charge-offs typically occur on or around the 20th of each month?

There's no one at LC making $30k a year, ok.
How do you know this?  One moment you're saying you have nothing to do with LC, and then next moment you're coming off like the CFO or Laplanche's wife.  I distinctly remember posts on this very forum discussing a few positions where the salary was, shall we say, not all that high.  The source of the information was LC's open positions page.  I don't know if archive.org has snapshots of it.  If I didn't have to be away this weekend I'd look into it.

Or you could simply go to http://www.glassdoor.com/Salary/LendingClub-Salaries-E349061.htm and look what people have posted. "Credit Specialist" is $40-47k and "Member Support Representative" is $43-47k. I assume the collections reps are paid on the low end of that, or even less.

And of course there is a real collection log.  LC couldn't conduct its business properly if all they had to go on in the notes was "Borrower contacted Lending Club".
Core is correct here. I used to work in two different call centers, one doing collections, and I can confirm that reps are always expected to keep a detailed notes in an internal log. However, LendingClub would not be able to disclose that detailed log information because of the high likelihood that it includes some personally-identifiable information. Instead, they simply control the risk by displaying generic log entries. I would even go as far as to say that the log entries we see aren't actually created manually by a human. Instead, they are automatically created the moment the rep opens the borrower's account and/or clicks on specific areas in their software (i.e. after setting up the details of a payment plan, the rep hits "done" and it automatically creates the log entry).


You don't need to be a conspiracy theorist to accept the possibility that some lowly support rep making $30k in an expensive city might be tempted to use his/her inside knowledge to boost their income a bit by selling information to a 3rd party.

I will shamelessly admit that, if the price is right, I might be willing to pay for that information.  ;)

Of course I understand what Core is suggesting. But in the interest of accuracy, since this is supposed to be a financial related site/forum, there's quite a distance between $43k or even $40k................& the $30k Core threw out. Keep in mind that we're not talking about Dubuque or Sioux City, Iowa. We're talking about SF where even full time minimum wage is already around $22k per year..............& rising. So $30k, I think not.

Of course, we all know there is another internal log, as you suggested. I'm just messing with Core because he has in the past (before your time here) suggested on a few occasions that select people may be privy to that log. Though he has never offered any proof of this, just the mere possibility annoys him to no end. My denials of everything related to the log are meant to be taken within the context of how I choose to react to the things that Core brings up, both in the real & in the fantasy world :) 

Bohb Daishi

  • Sr. Member
  • ****
  • Posts: 481
  • I eat free lunches
    • View Profile
Re: Beware the 20th of March
« Reply #13 on: December 12, 2013, 05:04:47 AM »
Of course, we all know there is another internal log, as you suggested. I'm just messing with Core because he has in the past (before your time here) suggested on a few occasions that select people may be privy to that log. Though he has never offered any proof of this, just the mere possibility annoys him to no end. My denials of everything related to the log are meant to be taken within the context of how I choose to react to the things that Core brings up, both in the real & in the fantasy world :)

The likelihood of someone colluding with an employee to use to use internal log in their trading activity is probably very high. I know that if I had a friend who worked at LC, I'd be pressuring them to look up a few of my notes. Insider trading? Maybe. But unlike stocks, this isn't perfectly legal (though the friend could lose their job). I can guarantee you that by now LC has already received numerous requests from large investors and hedge funds to make them privy to this knowledge. Even if LC isn't selling the info to them, it's also likely that now (or sometime in the future), a hedge fund will hire someone to get a job in the LC collections department. It's not a conspiracy theory. It's Finance 101: you make money by either being first, by being smarter, or by cheating.
There are three ways to make a living in this business: be first, be smarter, or cheat.

DanB

  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 665
  • A lie told often enough becomes The Truth!
    • View Profile
Re: Beware the 20th of March
« Reply #14 on: December 12, 2013, 05:17:55 AM »
Of course, we all know there is another internal log, as you suggested. I'm just messing with Core because he has in the past (before your time here) suggested on a few occasions that select people may be privy to that log. Though he has never offered any proof of this, just the mere possibility annoys him to no end. My denials of everything related to the log are meant to be taken within the context of how I choose to react to the things that Core brings up, both in the real & in the fantasy world :)

The likelihood of someone colluding with an employee to use to use internal log in their trading activity is probably very high. I know that if I had a friend who worked at LC, I'd be pressuring them to look up a few of my notes. Insider trading? Maybe. But unlike stocks, this isn't perfectly legal (though the friend could lose their job). I can guarantee you that by now LC has already received numerous requests from large investors and hedge funds to make them privy to this knowledge. Even if LC isn't selling the info to them, it's also likely that now (or sometime in the future), a hedge fund will hire someone to get a job in the LC collections department. It's not a conspiracy theory. It's Finance 101: you make money by either being first, by being smarter, or by cheating.

Sure, accurate info is gold.............but I'm sure I don't have to tell you that people lie to collections departments all the time.............or was I the only one who lied years ago when I was hanging around with the wrong crowd & got into credit trouble?   :)
So how accurate are the internal logs anyway? Or are you suggesting things like date of charge offs & actions that are internal & have nothing to do with what borrowers may be saying?


Bobb............check your PM folder