Author Topic: Total investment minus total payments: -$284.01  (Read 594 times)

rj2

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Total investment minus total payments: -$284.01
« on: March 16, 2020, 09:42:00 PM »
I know, I know it's the wrong way to look at a portfolio. But still. Today I went to LC web interface and moved all my completed notes into one portfolio, containing all and only notes that are either charged off or fully paid. Here's what it looked like:

Notes: 1153
Investment: $26928.83
Payments to Date: $26644.82

Principal: $22547.41
Interest: $4093.81
Late Fees Received: $3.60
Charged Off: $4439.39

WAIR: 15.04%
Composition: 1% A, 11% B, 26% C, 20% D, 29% E, 11% F, 3% G

NOW... Lending Club says that the ANAR on my account is 4.69%, and maybe it is, but I'd have expected better from a portfolio that has been running since 2015. Like actually coming out ahead on the notes that actually run to completion one way or the other.

Thankfully after 2017 I stopped adding money to this account (which is an IRA).

Edward Reid

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Re: Total investment minus total payments: -$284.01
« Reply #1 on: March 25, 2020, 11:58:55 AM »
By considering only completed loans, you are biasing your sample toward charge-offs. Consider that you are dividing your notes into three pots: succeeded, failed, and in-progress. By excluding the in-progress, you include a larger proportion of failed. The bias is stronger because failures occur sooner than successes.

Your profile is very risky. Almost 2/3 in the risky DEFG categories, and over 40% the very risky EFG. Some investors make money on such profiles, but the risk is high, so it's likely that you have fallen on the unlucky side of the risk line. Also, such a risky profile means a higher proportion of charge-offs (even when balanced by more profit on the successes), and this exacerbates the bias from excluding in-progress.

Edward