Author Topic: No best loans on LC platform - are you serious?  (Read 13696 times)

Rob L

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Re: No best loans on LC platform - are you serious?
« Reply #15 on: May 14, 2014, 11:32:44 PM »
Not to mention a period of time when LC had far less experience underwriting these loans that have been called a new asset class. They've probably gotten better at it.

Rob L

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Re: No best loans on LC platform - are you serious?
« Reply #16 on: May 15, 2014, 01:37:42 AM »
Still, this is one unbelievably impressive outlier.
More than 500 notes, none > 0.5% of portfolio, 22 months average age and about 17% adjusted NAR!
The weighted average interest rate is 18% or less. That doesn't leave much room for charge offs.
I wonder who it is. Will the winner please step forward and claim their prize!


Fred93

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Re: No best loans on LC platform - are you serious?
« Reply #17 on: May 15, 2014, 04:14:38 AM »
Still, this is one unbelievably impressive outlier.

Its not really an outlier.  Such points are EXPECTED in a normal distribution.  Read the book "Fooled by Randomness" by Nassim Nicholas Taleb
http://www.amazon.com/gp/product/0812975219/ref=as_li_qf_sp_asin_il_tl?ie=UTF8&camp=1789&creative=9325&creativeASIN=0812975219&linkCode=as2&tag=nothankyou&linkId=VRVWSEK722Z3QDMP

Rob L

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Re: No best loans on LC platform - are you serious?
« Reply #18 on: May 15, 2014, 07:38:22 AM »
Read that; also his "The Black Swan" and  Malkiel's "A Random Walk Down Wall Street" among others.
I thought the definition of outlier was a sample far out on the tail of the distribution (and expected, but rarely).
This qualifies, but appears to be so far out there as to possibly imply a measurement error (or a non-random event).

brycemason

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Re: No best loans on LC platform - are you serious?
« Reply #19 on: May 15, 2014, 09:19:15 AM »
Simple definition of outlier is exceeding 3 sigma from mean. That account is. But I don't necessarily trust the data. That is quite unlikely, but rare events do happen.

mikedave

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Re: No best loans on LC platform - are you serious?
« Reply #20 on: May 16, 2014, 07:50:25 AM »
That person is probably just selling his late notes

Rob L

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Re: No best loans on LC platform - are you serious?
« Reply #21 on: May 16, 2014, 10:29:35 AM »
Yes, that would have explained it but ...
This is a quote from LC's "Learn More About This Graph":

Quote
Buying and Selling Notes on the Note Trading Platform
This chart only includes accounts that have not transacted on the Note Trading Platform. NAR and Adjusted NAR do not capture all of the factors influencing returns for accounts that trade on the Note Trading Platform.

If this is a real account would the owner, if on this forum, please PM me. I will keep any and all communications confidential.
The performance is so incredibly great as to defy belief. Nobody can eat 50 eggs.

howler99

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Re: No best loans on LC platform - are you serious?
« Reply #22 on: May 16, 2014, 09:12:21 PM »
Yes. I see those outliers at the 500 note level with well aged portfolios, and I'm thinking how can I figure out what that guy is doing?

When I was in B school in the 80's, we were taught that no-one can beat the stock market indexes consistently, and basically I still believe that, but I wish like hell I would have had $10k and the wisdom to give it all to Warren Buffett back then. I guess those outliers are the Warren Buffetts of the P2P world.


howler99

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Re: No best loans on LC platform - are you serious?
« Reply #23 on: May 16, 2014, 09:26:38 PM »
Also just noticed that same dot is on my personal return graph. My weighted average rate is just over 19%. This dot isn't in red - meaning either it's being invested at 17% and not getting any charge-offs (or selling on Folio), or it's above 21%. 

Sigh ... this is going to keep me up nights.

rawraw

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Re: No best loans on LC platform - are you serious?
« Reply #24 on: May 17, 2014, 07:40:51 PM »
Simple definition of outlier is exceeding 3 sigma from mean. That account is. But I don't necessarily trust the data. That is quite unlikely, but rare events do happen.
Yea dude got real lucky.  If it was a consumer loan portfolio at a bank I'd think he was making new loans to keep old loans current.

Joleran

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Re: No best loans on LC platform - are you serious?
« Reply #25 on: May 19, 2014, 03:34:26 PM »
What I would expect if there were an actual strategy that beat the market consistently would be that multiple people would figure this out and there would be a small concentration instead of a diffuse, near-normalized distribution.

Joleran

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Re: No best loans on LC platform - are you serious?
« Reply #26 on: May 20, 2014, 12:33:37 AM »
When I was in B school in the 80's, we were taught that no-one can beat the stock market indexes consistently, and basically I still believe that, but I wish like hell I would have had $10k and the wisdom to give it all to Warren Buffett back then. I guess those outliers are the Warren Buffetts of the P2P world.

The thing about Warren Buffet is that he's not your average investor.  I don't mean this in the obvious sense that his returns kick butt, but that he gets up close and personal with the companies he invests in.  The P2P equivalent would be being able to personally interview the people taking out the notes you buy.

ThinleyWangchuk

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Re: No best loans on LC platform - are you serious?
« Reply #27 on: May 25, 2014, 09:06:47 PM »
I have accounts that have done well on the LC and Prosper platform.  Data from http://lendstats.com/ will prove investors can outperform in the P2P market.  Luck is great... But, to outperform, skill is necessary.
« Last Edit: May 25, 2014, 11:09:10 PM by wangchuk »

rawraw

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Re: No best loans on LC platform - are you serious?
« Reply #28 on: May 27, 2014, 10:23:23 AM »
I have accounts that have done well on the LC and Prosper platform.  Data from http://lendstats.com/ will prove investors can outperform in the P2P market.  Luck is great... But, to outperform, skill is necessary.
Selling on the secondary market isn't that skillful ha ha

ThinleyWangchuk

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Re: No best loans on LC platform - are you serious?
« Reply #29 on: May 28, 2014, 06:05:44 PM »
I have accounts that have done well on the LC and Prosper platform.  Data from http://lendstats.com/ will prove investors can outperform in the P2P market.  Luck is great... But, to outperform, skill is necessary.
Selling on the secondary market isn't that skillful ha ha

Not sure what you mean by this...  My approach to investing in notes is a buy and hold strategy.  Trading on the secondary market is too time consuming...
« Last Edit: May 28, 2014, 06:08:36 PM by DonDaVinci »