I believe if all cash is reinvested, then you might get lucky with an Avg Portfolio Age of 1/2 the terms of your portfolio.
Average age = (0 + 36) / 2 = 18 months.
In that case, at 18 months on the curve, 80% of us are all looking at a return of between 5.7 and 9.7% NAR. If you hold only 60 month notes, then at 1/2 that term of 30 months, you will be looking at between 5 to 8.8% NAR. That is likely the best case unless the entire curve shifts to the right due to fewer defaults in a stronger economy. It's statistics and there is no escaping the inevitable consequence of an aging portfolio and the curve of despair.
Once you stop reinvesting, your NAR will decrease as your avg age slides to the right and will continue until you are fully liquidated. That will be a sad and painful thing to watch...
Here is a recent quote from a well know LC member whose avg portfolio age is about 15 months old and is exactly where expected on the curve.
Average Portfolio Description (weighted by remaining principal where noted)
Interest Rate (weighted) | 18.1% |
Age (unweighted) | 456 days |
Age (weighted) | 359 days |
Returns
LendingClub Net Annualized Return | 9.70% |
Excel XIRR (inc. cash drag) | 9.36% |