Author Topic: Updates to Loan Migration Status  (Read 3771 times)

Randawl

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Updates to Loan Migration Status
« on: July 31, 2014, 10:47:30 PM »
As part of the 6/30/2014 updates along with the loan data file (http://www.lendacademy.com/forum/index.php?topic=2536.0), Lending Club has updated their 9-month loss estimations based on loan status.

Grace period:  23% -> 25%
Late 16-30:  49% -> 57%
Late 31-120:  72% -> 77%
Default:  86% -> 91%

They have not yet updated these estimations in the default "adjusted" settings.

lascott

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Re: Updates to Loan Migration Status
« Reply #1 on: August 01, 2014, 09:47:27 AM »
They have not yet updated these estimations in the default "adjusted" settings.
Thanks for posting that. It'll be interesting how they do that since one day your Adjusted NAR will just drop (assuming you have notes in grace, past due, etc).

I guess you could plug in the numbers your self so you are not surprised.

https://www.lendingclub.com/account/investorReturnsAdjustments.action

« Last Edit: August 01, 2014, 09:49:53 AM by lascott »
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Thatguybil

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Re: Updates to Loan Migration Status
« Reply #2 on: August 01, 2014, 05:31:46 PM »
My custom loss estimate is 100% :)

brycemason

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Re: Updates to Loan Migration Status
« Reply #3 on: August 02, 2014, 02:18:35 AM »
It won't be too surprising to have the NAR drop. These are pretty small changes compared to the last year where (1) we got the adjusted NAR in the first place and (2) they stopped counting accrued interest in the calculation. I think my NAR dropped about 0.02%.

lascott

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Re: Updates to Loan Migration Status
« Reply #4 on: August 02, 2014, 08:45:43 AM »
It won't be too surprising to have the NAR drop. These are pretty small changes compared to the last year where (1) we got the adjusted NAR in the first place and (2) they stopped counting accrued interest in the calculation. I think my NAR dropped about 0.02%.
Good point. I don't think I was around for the Adj NAR introduction but had read about it.  As well I didn't know about the accrued interest.

Indeed that would really change my NAR!!

https://www.lendingclub.com/account/lenderAccountDetail.action

« Last Edit: August 02, 2014, 01:13:44 PM by lascott »
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daniel2023

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Re: Updates to Loan Migration Status
« Reply #5 on: August 02, 2014, 09:20:43 AM »
My custom loss estimate is 100% :)

I'm with you on that... once it goes beyond grace period, I have 100% loss... definitely makes for more fluctuation day-to-day, but I just assume that loan is gone until it makes a payment.

Rob L

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Re: Updates to Loan Migration Status
« Reply #6 on: August 02, 2014, 01:12:13 PM »
My assumptions too since day 1.

lascott

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Re: Updates to Loan Migration Status
« Reply #7 on: August 02, 2014, 01:16:43 PM »
My custom loss estimate is 100% :)
I'm with you on that... once it goes beyond grace period, I have 100% loss... definitely makes for more fluctuation day-to-day, but I just assume that loan is gone until it makes a payment.
I kind of like that for the default or > 30 days but for grace and < 30 days I'm finding them fall in line as they are brand new notes. (i.e. getting the electronic payment setup correctly, timing of the payment vs their paycheck/budget).

I wish they had a couple customization options so if the note is > 3 months old then I would consider it to be a 100% case. Like I said with all my new notes as I'm just getting going I see them come back. Besides NAR is just a feel good number.
« Last Edit: August 02, 2014, 04:59:31 PM by lascott »
Tools I use: (main) BlueVestment: https://www.bluevestment.com/app/pricing + https://www.interestradar.com/ , (others) Lending Robot referral link: https://www.lendingrobot.com/ref/scott473/  & Peercube referral code: DFVA9Y

brycemason

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Re: Updates to Loan Migration Status
« Reply #8 on: August 02, 2014, 04:04:03 PM »
I find NAR to be pretty accurate for my buy and hold account, especially in the long run.

Fred

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Re: Updates to Loan Migration Status
« Reply #9 on: August 04, 2014, 12:26:05 AM »
LC NAR and ANAR are customarily called the "mark-to-model" pricing; the FOLIOfn prices are the "mark-to-market" pricing.

Ideally, both should agree; however, many of us FOLIO traders may ague differently.