Author Topic: FolioFN Return Calculation!!!!!!!  (Read 19353 times)

Randawl

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Re: FolioFN Return Calculation!!!!!!!
« Reply #15 on: September 18, 2014, 10:34:07 PM »
So I commonly use my personal estimates assuming worse case scenario (100% charge off for IGP through Default).  My anar shows actually higher (over 16%) when I use my estimates vs. Lending Clubs (13%). Am I missing something or have I found a bug?  Anyone else see the same behavior?

By saying "my anar" do you mean using those late note loss estimates "(100% charge off for IGP through Default)" results in 16% "anar" vs LC's ANAR estimates which show 13% at this particular point in time?  That would be a little odd.  Or by "my anar" do you mean using those loss estimates on your account and applied to an XIRR formula?

Fred

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Re: FolioFN Return Calculation!!!!!!!
« Reply #16 on: September 19, 2014, 05:51:47 AM »




core, I found your image is a bit different than others:

1. There is no little triangular arrow on the left side of your blue box.
2. The upper and bottom left corners of your blue box are rounded.
3. The font is a bit skinnier.
4. The words "Understanding" and "Your Traded Note Returns" are split into 2 lines. Somehow this is never the case for my Chrome and IE.

core

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Re: FolioFN Return Calculation!!!!!!!
« Reply #17 on: September 19, 2014, 06:15:52 AM »
core, I found your image is a bit different than others:

Now that's what I like:  A good suspicious mind!  But I can assure you I did not fake a screenshot just to have an excuse to bash Lending Club.  Also all it would take is one person to say theirs says a valid number above 100% and the game would be up.

For one, I am on Firefox 31, not Chrome nor IE.  Screen about 800px wide.  Also (and I think this is the major difference), I'm in a Folio-only state.  I can have no "primary notes" therefore I have no white area off to the left where you can select one of the three NAR options.  The only NAR I can see is the traded notes one.

Here's what that whole area of the page looks like for me.  I don't even see where that 3-option selection would even fit.  Am I not looking at the same screen you guys are?



Edit:  Tried it on IE and the boxes are in fact square like you say.  But nothing else looks different.  Still no white area with the 3 selections and there still wouldn't be any room for it unless the 3rd box (interest received & total payments) was moved down a row or something.
« Last Edit: September 19, 2014, 06:34:24 AM by core »

hoggy1

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Re: FolioFN Return Calculation!!!!!!!
« Reply #18 on: September 19, 2014, 06:34:32 AM »
I don't think they have it split out correctly yet. If you switch on and off the "Adjust account value and returns for past-due Notes" the adjustment is the same for all 3. That just can't be right. I'm not even certain the traded note count is correct. What if I bought the note on the trading platform and sold it on Folio? Is that is the traded category?
« Last Edit: September 19, 2014, 06:53:35 AM by hoggy1 »
Steve

rawraw

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Re: FolioFN Return Calculation!!!!!!!
« Reply #19 on: September 19, 2014, 08:12:29 AM »
I don't think they have it split out correctly yet. If you switch on and off the "Adjust account value and returns for past-due Notes" the adjustment is the same for all 3. That just can't be right. I'm not even certain the traded note count is correct. What if I bought the note on the trading platform and sold it on Folio? Is that is the traded category?
Yes, I think it is in the trading platform. The two columns would capture the return.  Left column for holding period, right column for comparison of sale to contractual payments remaining.

Fred

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Re: FolioFN Return Calculation!!!!!!!
« Reply #20 on: September 19, 2014, 11:16:16 AM »
Also (and I think this is the major difference), I'm in a Folio-only state.

Yep, this is the difference.

Having 100%+ returns on 50k notes is truly remarkable.  Congrats on the sustained performance!

rawraw

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Re: FolioFN Return Calculation!!!!!!!
« Reply #21 on: September 19, 2014, 11:57:11 AM »
Also (and I think this is the major difference), I'm in a Folio-only state.

Yep, this is the difference.

Having 100%+ returns on 50k notes is truly remarkable.  Congrats on the sustained performance!
Are you sharing your FolioFn stats?

PeerSocialLending

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Re: FolioFN Return Calculation!!!!!!!
« Reply #22 on: September 19, 2014, 12:32:49 PM »
So I commonly use my personal estimates assuming worse case scenario (100% charge off for IGP through Default).  My anar shows actually higher (over 16%) when I use my estimates vs. Lending Clubs (13%). Am I missing something or have I found a bug?  Anyone else see the same behavior?

By saying "my anar" do you mean using those late note loss estimates "(100% charge off for IGP through Default)" results in 16% "anar" vs LC's ANAR estimates which show 13% at this particular point in time?  That would be a little odd.  Or by "my anar" do you mean using those loss estimates on your account and applied to an XIRR formula?


That is correct (nothing to do with XIRR) and screenshots to better explain.
-Ryan
p2p lending blogger @ www.peersociallending.com

turing

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Re: FolioFN Return Calculation!!!!!!!
« Reply #23 on: September 19, 2014, 01:47:09 PM »
For one, I am on Firefox 31, not Chrome nor IE.  Screen about 800px wide.  a Folio-only state.  I can have no "primary notes" therefore I have no white area off to the left where you can select one of the three NAR options.  The only NAR I can see is the traded notes one.

Here's what that whole area of the page looks like for me.  I don't even see where that 3-option selection would even fit.  Am I not looking at the same screen you guys are?

I can confirm what Core sees.  Here is a comparison screen shot of my account with some trading and one without.

The "interest received' box is missing entirely if there are traded and primary notes.  If you have one or the other, you see three boxes.

Lovinglifestyle

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Re: FolioFN Return Calculation!!!!!!!
« Reply #24 on: September 19, 2014, 02:25:09 PM »
My screens don't have the "Historical Returns" line.

core

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Re: FolioFN Return Calculation!!!!!!!
« Reply #25 on: September 19, 2014, 04:35:37 PM »
The "interest received' box is missing entirely if there are traded and primary notes.

That solves the mystery of where everything would fit.  It doesn't!  Those of you who have the 3 NAR options pay for it by losing your interest received data.

Having 100%+ returns on 50k notes is truly remarkable.  Congrats on the sustained performance!

That's just it though, it isn't "sustained".  If they are using lifetime stats to come up with the figure, and I believe they are, then your recent performance or lack thereof isn't really reflected.  Keep in mind it was far easier to make a ton of money back in the "old days".  These days it's closer to 50-60% I'd guess.  Maybe less.  I have not been trading as actively recently.

I still do not understand why there is this silly limit when nothing is to be gained by either party.  If the calculations use an iterative solution then yes maybe there is some speed to be gained by bailing early, but only in very rare cases.  At the cost of increased code complexity.  It makes no sense.

I would be interested to see what LC's actual number is, so hopefully they will "fix" this.  Not that I put much stock in LC's calculations.  My lifetime XIRR is 396% but I have a feeling LC would show some insanely high number, possibly nearly double that.  Because from what I've read here, LC never takes into account idle cash.  I usually keep 10-20k sitting around when I can so LC is going to ignore this and show inflated numbers.

Before anyone points out that it's financially silly to leave so much cash idle earning nothing... When some investor has a medical emergency or gets divorced and has to quickly liquidate their entire portfolio, I want to be ready.  The best way to profit is from the misery of others!  It has worked out well for me so far.  So keep those divorces coming guys.  DanB has a fine selection of little fillies if you need a better one.  And as my attorney always says to clients (because it helps his pocketbook), "Drive fast and take chances".

hoggy1

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Re: FolioFN Return Calculation!!!!!!!
« Reply #26 on: September 19, 2014, 06:29:20 PM »
Before anyone points out that it's financially silly to leave so much cash idle earning nothing... When some investor has a medical emergency ...."

I don't think its silly. In fact I don't think idle cash should be included in any ROI, NAR, or other such calculation. Idle cash is just that - it has nothing to due with the performance of the investment I have made which is what I want to measure. This represents investment I haven't made - my fault - not the fault of my notes. Now LC fees and delays in investment are properly included within the NAR calculation because they are an integral part of this investment vehicle.
 
If you insist I count the "cash drag" of cash I keep in my LC account, why not add in the $30-40K in my non-interest bearing checking account, or the $200-300K I have in useless realestate I continue to pay tax on. Where I choose to keep cash is unrelated to any other investment vehicle. That's my read.
Steve

core

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Re: FolioFN Return Calculation!!!!!!!
« Reply #27 on: September 19, 2014, 06:51:05 PM »
If you insist I count the "cash drag" of cash I keep in my LC account, why not add in the $30-40K in my non-interest bearing checking account

I don't think that's quite the same thing.  If you're just keeping cash in LC solely because you don't want to be bothered with moving it elsewhere, then fine I agree it shouldn't necessarily be counted.  But on the other hand if that cash is required to be sitting there to enable you to make your investments, then it is effectively tied up.

It is that cash that enables you to make your returns.  This can be because your strategy depends on large amounts of cash (as mine does), or perhaps the note selection is so poor that finding filter matches is unpredictable and come in large blocks when they do.  In either case, if you didn't have the cash sitting there you wouldn't make anything.  If the cash is required it should be counted IMO.

hoggy1

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Re: FolioFN Return Calculation!!!!!!!
« Reply #28 on: September 19, 2014, 07:33:23 PM »
I agree, if your investment strategy depends on the cash being available then it is an integral part of the investment vehicle as you implement it. But most people on the board are not in that situation and there are often repeated references to cash drag and inclusion of idle cash in NAR calculations none of which I have ever understood.
Steve

rawraw

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Re: FolioFN Return Calculation!!!!!!!
« Reply #29 on: September 19, 2014, 07:38:27 PM »
I agree, if your investment strategy depends on the cash being available then it is an integral part of the investment vehicle as you implement it. But most people on the board are not in that situation and there are often repeated references to cash drag and inclusion of idle cash in NAR calculations none of which I have ever understood.
Cash drag also takes into account time till fund, notes that get rejected and have to be reinvested, etc.  All of which are part of the investment