Author Topic: Is there other data you want to see on Note page?  (Read 8643 times)

turing

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Is there other data you want to see on Note page?
« on: November 17, 2014, 12:00:54 PM »
Right now our note page shows 3 data points (subgrade, interest rate, term, loan purpose).  Like this:


Is there other loan data you would want to see when deciding which notes to buy?

rawraw

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Re: Is there other data you want to see on Note page?
« Reply #1 on: November 26, 2014, 08:44:49 AM »
How does the picks work?  Is there a hurdle rate for minimum return or is there a credit score associated with the pick?  Should I view all picks the same or is there some better than others?

turing

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Re: Is there other data you want to see on Note page?
« Reply #2 on: November 26, 2014, 11:09:36 AM »
How does the picks work?  Is there a hurdle rate for minimum return or is there a credit score associated with the pick?  Should I view all picks the same or is there some better than others?

Good question.

The picks are like a filter that people create manually using Nickel Steamroller.  Either the note qualifies or it doesn't.  Our algorithm tried hundreds of thousands of combinations of variables and combinations of filters to give the ones that give the best return.

As part of the testing, we used different starting dates in the past so the filters needed to do well at all times.

All picks we show are viewed as the same, there are not better ones.  The best results are picking random notes on the list (the list order is randomized for each user).  Our genetic algorithm tried different combos and determined those didn't improve expected returns.  For example, if our algorithm said buy all notes where someone:

Owns a home and has $100,000 in income.

We would have tested filtering it more to only FICO scores of 700+ or public records less than 2, etc.  Those didn't improve the results so we don't recommend users choose subsets of our picks.  Obviously users need to make their own decision, but it isn't our recommendation.

I hope that answer your question for you.

rawraw

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Re: Is there other data you want to see on Note page?
« Reply #3 on: November 26, 2014, 11:14:23 AM »
What about maturity term ? Does that need to be random as well?

turing

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Re: Is there other data you want to see on Note page?
« Reply #4 on: November 26, 2014, 11:29:19 AM »
Maturity is the same.  The algorithm would have tried just 36 month or just 60 month.  Choosing only one or the other would not improve your return. 

That being said, it might not lower your expected return.

With any good filtering decision there some "cost" you consider when adding new variables.  The new variables need to increase the return enough to make it worth adding.  If you don't do this, you run the risk of over fitting the model.

I opened this thread because we want to offer what users want.  Lots of users have mentioned the ability to filter or see more info so they can choose only certain loans.  I wanted to know what info would help users make their investment decisions.

rawraw

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Re: Is there other data you want to see on Note page?
« Reply #5 on: November 26, 2014, 10:50:07 PM »
Well that's why I was curious about these things -- because if they existed, I'd want to see them ha ha

lascott

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Re: Is there other data you want to see on Note page?
« Reply #6 on: November 27, 2014, 12:48:30 AM »
I would guess most peoples concern is that you don't have a track record and are asking people to trust your programming: "Our algorithm tried hundreds of thousands of combinations of variables and combinations of filters to give the ones that give the best return."   P2P-Picks is/was probably different as the author has a known background (podcast interview by Peter(LA), stats background, etc), has a commercial product, few years of performance history, and work with each drop.

I waited a several day to respond.  In my order of preference.
1) FICO
2) Employment years
3) Credit Utilization
4) Months since Last Delinquencies
5) Income
6) Loan Amount
7) When originated (i.e. how long ago did the loan get originated - days since first showed up on one of the 4 drops)
Tools I use: (main) BlueVestment: https://www.bluevestment.com/app/pricing + https://www.interestradar.com/ , (others) Lending Robot referral link: https://www.lendingrobot.com/ref/scott473/  & Peercube referral code: DFVA9Y

turing

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Re: Is there other data you want to see on Note page?
« Reply #7 on: December 01, 2014, 12:27:02 PM »
I would guess most peoples concern is that you don't have a track record and are asking people to trust your programming: "Our algorithm tried hundreds of thousands of combinations of variables and combinations of filters to give the ones that give the best return."   P2P-Picks is/was probably different as the author has a known background (podcast interview by Peter(LA), stats background, etc), has a commercial product, few years of performance history, and work with each drop.

I waited a several day to respond.  In my order of preference.
1) FICO
2) Employment years
3) Credit Utilization
4) Months since Last Delinquencies
5) Income
6) Loan Amount
7) When originated (i.e. how long ago did the loan get originated - days since first showed up on one of the 4 drops)

Gone for holiday weekend.  Sorry for delayed response. 

I agree with your assessment on the reason people are hesitant.  When there is money involved people are more cautious, and should be.  It will take a longer time period to know for sure how the model does. 

I appreciate your list of info that you would like to see.  I'll make a note of these and combine it with info from other users too.