Author Topic: Any New Loans Lately?  (Read 13981 times)

avid investor

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Any New Loans Lately?
« on: November 28, 2014, 12:24:21 PM »
Seriously.  Has ANYONE found ANY loans to buy in the last 6 feeding times?

Fred93

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Re: Any New Loans Lately?
« Reply #1 on: November 28, 2014, 01:36:15 PM »
Yes indeed.  The last two weeks, my filter just stopped producing loans.  I've bought a few loans during this time only by looking for loans that came close to my filter, and then I could only find maybe 1 every other day.

Obviously something has changed.  Often these things are temporary, but they are puzzling.  You may have noted that the # loans on the web site has gone down steadily over the last two weeks.  You can see this hour by hour!

I called my LC rep on Wednesday and asked her what they were doing.  She said I was not the only person to make this complaint.  Said she believes the issue is that this season there is light borrower demand.  I'm always skeptical, because these reps tend to simply repeat "the party line" on some issue, so I don't feel satisfied by her explanation.  However, it could be correct.

Here's an entirely-made-up-but-plausible explanation:  Suppose a new (but considered important) institutional customer has just arrived, and is trying to deploy $182 Million.  He complains that there isn't enough product, so LC turns the knob, shifting a higher fraction of loan volume to the whole-loan platform, and gives us peanuts for awhile.  If this is did happen, then it would be important that LC receive complaints from the fractional-loan community, so that they can observe pain from starving us. 

Now I don't know whether that happened or not, but I hope it explains my view that it is important that you call LC and tell them when there is a problem.
« Last Edit: November 28, 2014, 01:43:26 PM by Fred93 »

Lovinglifestyle

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Re: Any New Loans Lately?
« Reply #2 on: November 28, 2014, 01:58:23 PM »
I missed two yesterday of the last 6 feeding times and got two notes from the other four, both on the most recent feed, both from my "all recent EFG" filter which managed to have 11 in it.  None of my usual filters have been producing anything so I go directly to the all recent one so I can have something to look at.  This time I looked at all the "time submitted" notations on the complete details pages and saw they were all around 6:20 AM to 9:20AM this morning.     

rawraw

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Re: Any New Loans Lately?
« Reply #3 on: November 28, 2014, 03:01:38 PM »
Yes indeed.  The last two weeks, my filter just stopped producing loans.  I've bought a few loans during this time only by looking for loans that came close to my filter, and then I could only find maybe 1 every other day.

Obviously something has changed.  Often these things are temporary, but they are puzzling.  You may have noted that the # loans on the web site has gone down steadily over the last two weeks.  You can see this hour by hour!

I called my LC rep on Wednesday and asked her what they were doing.  She said I was not the only person to make this complaint.  Said she believes the issue is that this season there is light borrower demand.  I'm always skeptical, because these reps tend to simply repeat "the party line" on some issue, so I don't feel satisfied by her explanation.  However, it could be correct.

Here's an entirely-made-up-but-plausible explanation:  Suppose a new (but considered important) institutional customer has just arrived, and is trying to deploy $182 Million.  He complains that there isn't enough product, so LC turns the knob, shifting a higher fraction of loan volume to the whole-loan platform, and gives us peanuts for awhile.  If this is did happen, then it would be important that LC receive complaints from the fractional-loan community, so that they can observe pain from starving us. 

Now I don't know whether that happened or not, but I hope it explains my view that it is important that you call LC and tell them when there is a problem.
One day, when I'm in the 1%, I'll have a LC rep too :)  It humbles me every time I see people mentioning their reps

MarinBB

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Re: Any New Loans Lately?
« Reply #4 on: November 28, 2014, 03:04:59 PM »
Does LC post new listings to the website at times other than the usual 6am/10am/2pm/6pm posting rounds?

FWIW, it has been a slow week on Prosper too.

Fred93

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Re: Any New Loans Lately?
« Reply #5 on: November 28, 2014, 03:40:22 PM »
Does LC post new listings to the website at times other than the usual 6am/10am/2pm/6pm posting rounds?

Yes and no.  I say yes.  LC emphatically and repeatedly says no.

Anil Gupta published a chart awhile back that showed when new loans appeared.  Big groups of loans appear at the stated times, but loans appear at other times as well. 

One of the places loans come from is the whole-loan market.  LC posts to the whole-loan market at the stated times, and then if no one buys the loan, 12 hours later, it rolls over to the fractional-loan market, and we suddenly see it.  LC says these are not "new" loans, but they're new to US, hence the disagreement.

Anil's data shows loans appearing at other times too, dribbling in.  Some say these are loans that someone grabbed before Anil could see them, and put them in their shopping cart, looked them over for awhile, and then released them.  Maybe that's right.  I dunno.

The bottom line is that, as Anil has shown, if you wanna see all the loans, you have to observe more than just the loans that appear at the stated times, because some new-to-us loans appear at various times, scattered thruought the day.  In this sense, the direction LC has given us is misleading. 

avid investor

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Re: Any New Loans Lately?
« Reply #6 on: November 28, 2014, 03:42:33 PM »
Yes indeed.  The last two weeks, my filter just stopped producing loans.  I've bought a few loans during this time only by looking for loans that came close to my filter, and then I could only find maybe 1 every other day.

Obviously something has changed.  Often these things are temporary, but they are puzzling.  You may have noted that the # loans on the web site has gone down steadily over the last two weeks.  You can see this hour by hour!

I called my LC rep on Wednesday and asked her what they were doing.  She said I was not the only person to make this complaint.  Said she believes the issue is that this season there is light borrower demand.  I'm always skeptical, because these reps tend to simply repeat "the party line" on some issue, so I don't feel satisfied by her explanation.  However, it could be correct.

Here's an entirely-made-up-but-plausible explanation:  Suppose a new (but considered important) institutional customer has just arrived, and is trying to deploy $182 Million.  He complains that there isn't enough product, so LC turns the knob, shifting a higher fraction of loan volume to the whole-loan platform, and gives us peanuts for awhile.  If this is did happen, then it would be important that LC receive complaints from the fractional-loan community, so that they can observe pain from starving us. 

Now I don't know whether that happened or not, but I hope it explains my view that it is important that you call LC and tell them when there is a problem.

Fred, I think you missed my point, or perhaps I just failed to insert the word "new" in my statement.  I have noticed that NO, ZERO, NADDA loans were dropped at many of the most recent feeding times.  So, it is not just a matter of my filters.  For example, at 12:59:32 (Eastern) this afternoon, there were 452 loans returned (no filtering yet applied).  At 13:09:03, there were 451, and my process quit after 10 minutes of finding no increase in the number of unfiltered loans.  This has been the pattern for about 6 cycles now.  No f'ing loans added at all.
« Last Edit: November 28, 2014, 03:45:54 PM by avid investor »

Fred93

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Re: Any New Loans Lately?
« Reply #7 on: November 28, 2014, 03:48:19 PM »
Fred, I think you missed my point, or perhaps I just failed to insert the word "new" in my statement.  I have noticed that NO, ZERO, NADDA loans were dropped at many of the most recent feeding times.  So, it is not just a matter of my filters.

You and I both think that warrants an explanation.  LC hasn't offered any.  LC has changed a lot in the last year.  They now have little respect for lenders, so feel no need to be transparent about anything.

I can only suggest you express your surprise at this development to LC directly, and see if you get a better explanation than I got.


Lovinglifestyle

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Re: Any New Loans Lately?
« Reply #8 on: November 28, 2014, 04:15:12 PM »
Well, are or are not the 3rd party sites getting new loans at the same time as the manual clickers?  Or has that nothing to do with this discussion?  For awhile the 3rd  sites had every single loan I (a clicker) did.  Lately, they don't.  Also, if I miss the clock by half a second I miss a few loans.  5 sec. for sure makes a world of difference.  Doesn't bother me. Yes, the "is faster better?" topic has been covered.  I agree that it isn't.  All I want is some to look at.  I expect institutions and people with more skills than I to get there first.  With only a little over 400 total loans not spoken for, I've replaced my Get Invested book marker with one at the Patience chapter.  Sorry if this is totally irrelevant.  I'm not convinced zero loans were dropped at any feeding times.


Fred93

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Re: Any New Loans Lately?
« Reply #9 on: November 28, 2014, 04:45:53 PM »
Some numbers re loan arrival rate.

LC says they did $1.1 B of loans in 3rd Quarter.  That's the run rate.
Loans are about $15,000 average size.
--> 73,333 Loans/Quarter
--> 24,444 Loans/Month
--> 815 loans/day

Looking at nickelsteamroller's stats, June '14 (the most recent they list) had
6267 loans to fractional market.
10912 loans to whole market.
10656 other loans.
That's 27835 loans total for the month, which roughly agrees with the above calculation.
It also shows 23% of loan volume going to the fractional marketplace.

Using 815 loans/day and 23%
--> 187 loans/day to the fractional market.
--> 187/4 --> 47 loans/feeding time.

So 47 loans/feeding time is what one would expect, if LC is keeping up the input volume, and if they are continuing to allocate 23% to the fractional market.  These numbers are of course rough, for a variety of reasons.

The kind of simple analysis will be impossible in the future, as LC is venturing into new kinds of loans, and reporting much less data, making everything less transparent.


MarinBB

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Re: Any New Loans Lately?
« Reply #10 on: November 28, 2014, 05:08:33 PM »
The 2pm round today (6mins ago) yielded 82 new listings for me. Around 20 of them filled inside of 30sec. Avid investor, how often do you query for new listings? I've noticed that a large portion of newly posted listings are filled within a minute of becoming available.


Fred93

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Re: Any New Loans Lately?
« Reply #11 on: November 28, 2014, 05:38:52 PM »
I'm not convinced zero loans were dropped at any feeding times.

New loans are definitely appearing today.  Today my s/w saw the following # loans at various times...
02:01 448
06:01 471
10:01 501
14:01 482

I don't claim these numbers are definitive, and I don't think this s/w is faster than anybody else, so some new loans are surely missed.  The fact that the number of loans went up from 2AM to 6AM, and 6AM to 10AM today however means that new loans are definitely appearing.  Perhaps they are appearing in smaller numbers than they have in the past.

I asked Anil Gupta to share his #s for the past few weeks.  He has recorded new loans once a minute (if memory serves me) over a long period of time.

brycemason

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Re: Any New Loans Lately?
« Reply #12 on: November 28, 2014, 06:20:36 PM »
The holidays were exceedingly light last year, too. I paid careful attention due to my deploying capital for the bank. I managed to pick up 3 Es for myself today, which was good. My last logs show 112 new loans on 2pm load, 70 of which were whole. Nothing I wanted.
« Last Edit: November 28, 2014, 06:24:27 PM by brycemason »

avid investor

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Re: Any New Loans Lately?
« Reply #13 on: November 28, 2014, 09:05:11 PM »
The 2pm round today (6mins ago) yielded 82 new listings for me. Around 20 of them filled inside of 30sec. Avid investor, how often do you query for new listings? I've noticed that a large portion of newly posted listings are filled within a minute of becoming available.
Once per second, no more than the permitted frequency.

avid investor

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Re: Any New Loans Lately?
« Reply #14 on: November 28, 2014, 09:10:34 PM »
I'm not convinced zero loans were dropped at any feeding times.

New loans are definitely appearing today.  Today my s/w saw the following # loans at various times...
02:01 448
06:01 471
10:01 501
14:01 482

I don't claim these numbers are definitive, and I don't think this s/w is faster than anybody else, so some new loans are surely missed.  The fact that the number of loans went up from 2AM to 6AM, and 6AM to 10AM today however means that new loans are definitely appearing.  Perhaps they are appearing in smaller numbers than they have in the past.

I asked Anil Gupta to share his #s for the past few weeks.  He has recorded new loans once a minute (if memory serves me) over a long period of time.
Fred, you haven't noted what time zone you are in, certainly 2:01 AM is not one of the feeding times, regardless.  So, if what you are saying is that notes are being dropped at other times, I'll buy that.  Silly me for following the rules as LC has provided them.  If I have to have my process check continuously all day, I can easily do that.  It would just be nice to know when the rules change.  I was just trying to be a "good web service citizen" by not running the API 24x7x365.  If I have to do that to compete and keep funded then fine.