Author Topic: Any New Loans Lately?  (Read 15466 times)

avid investor

  • Full Member
  • ***
  • Posts: 168
    • View Profile
Re: Any New Loans Lately?
« Reply #15 on: November 28, 2014, 09:58:42 PM »
Ok, so here's what may be happening, as I see it:

1) Loans are apparently being dropped at all hours.  We had a LC loan a year back for our business, and after the loan was accepted the system told us that our loan would be "listed at 3 AM tomorrow".  Always thought that was strange given the 9, 1, 5, and 9 drop times.

2) LC's system clock may be out of sync with ours.  My process always started at 8:59, 12:59, 4: 59, and 8:59 in order to avoid that, but if LC's clock is set 2 minutes faster (dropping at 8:58) than our server's, a minimal drop of 40 new notes could be all gone by the time my process starts a minute later.  I trapped this case (for now) by backing up my cron jobs another 2 minutes earlier.

This sucks either way, really.  On one hand, if in fact they are dropping their few loans at all hours, and you wait for the feeding times, you lose out.  On the other hand, if they are still dropping the lion's share (currently a small one) at the prescribed times, and loan volume increases after the holidays, I would hate to have changed to a continuous 24x7 process and fund a bunch of lower return notes all day long just to miss out on the higher return loans that may be in the batches at the prescribed times because the available cash has been exhausted already.  That may be the only way to go to stay fully invested though.

Fred93

  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 2231
    • View Profile
Re: Any New Loans Lately?
« Reply #16 on: November 28, 2014, 10:00:03 PM »
Fred, you haven't noted what time zone you are in, certainly 2:01 AM is not one of the feeding times, regardless.

Sure it is.  LC's statements about "feeding times" are misleading. 

Significant #s of loans appear routinely at 2AM.  This happens because LC posts loans to the whole-loan market at 2PM, and then 12 hours later those that have not been purchased roll over to the fractional loan market where we can suddenly see them.


Quote
If I have to have my process check continuously all day, I can easily do that.  It would just be nice to know when the rules change.

I don't think that's necessary, but you might want to add 10PM and 2AM to your list of times to check so that you can examine the rollovers from the whole loan market soon after they appear.

Its not so much that the rules have changed as that they have never been stated clearly.

avid investor

  • Full Member
  • ***
  • Posts: 168
    • View Profile
Re: Any New Loans Lately?
« Reply #17 on: November 28, 2014, 10:04:20 PM »
Thanks Fred.  I assume by "you might want to add 10PM and 2AM to your list of times" that you are talking Eastern time?

Fred93

  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 2231
    • View Profile
Re: Any New Loans Lately?
« Reply #18 on: November 28, 2014, 10:08:50 PM »
Thanks Fred.  I assume by "you might want to add 10PM and 2AM to your list of times" that you are talking Eastern time?

No.  Pacific time.  LC posts loans at 2PM to the whole loan market, and 12 hours after that is 2AM, etc.  All pacific time.

avid investor

  • Full Member
  • ***
  • Posts: 168
    • View Profile
Re: Any New Loans Lately?
« Reply #19 on: November 28, 2014, 10:09:37 PM »
Got it.

Fred93

  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 2231
    • View Profile
Re: Any New Loans Lately?
« Reply #20 on: November 28, 2014, 10:33:24 PM »
AnilG posted data awhile back, from which I generated this plot.  He captured # new loans every minute from 2/1/2014 thru 4/26/2014 and posted a spreadsheet, and I summed all the days to produce this plot showing what time-of-day loans drop.  This is the source of my understanding of LC's loan drop behavior.


avid investor

  • Full Member
  • ***
  • Posts: 168
    • View Profile
Re: Any New Loans Lately?
« Reply #21 on: November 28, 2014, 10:45:44 PM »
Well there certainly are a lot of dots at "non-drop" times, as we both suspected.  While I may not (yet) fund notes 24x7, I will likely pull my own data continuously for similar analysis.  Thanks Fred.

rawraw

  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 2793
    • View Profile
Re: Any New Loans Lately?
« Reply #22 on: November 29, 2014, 08:44:41 AM »
I'm not a programmer, but if I was I'd set up a 24/7 process and have a hurdle rate expected return.  And I'd invest anything over that hurdle rate, that can be adjusted based on LC rates and how they move.  I find notes at all hours of the day when I do it manually.

Lovinglifestyle

  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 901
    • View Profile
    • Email
Re: Any New Loans Lately?
« Reply #23 on: November 29, 2014, 09:31:17 AM »
Thanks Fred.  I assume by "you might want to add 10PM and 2AM to your list of times" that you are talking Eastern time?

No.  Pacific time.  LC posts loans at 2PM to the whole loan market, and 12 hours after that is 2AM, etc.  All pacific time.

Thank you, Fred93.  I was hoping you would post Anil's data about this.  Love your summation chart "new loan vs time of day".

lascott

  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 1433
    • View Profile
    • Appreciate my post and want to try LendingRobot? URL below
Re: Any New Loans Lately?
« Reply #24 on: November 29, 2014, 09:51:38 AM »
AnilG posted data awhile back, from which I generated this plot.  He captured # new loans every minute from 2/1/2014 thru 4/26/2014 and posted a spreadsheet, and I summed all the days to produce this plot showing what time-of-day loans drop.  This is the source of my understanding of LC's loan drop behavior.



I've hardly got any loans in the past couple weeks. Didn't add money in the middle of the month because I still had some from the first of the month plus payments.

Surprised AnilG or others don't gather this information daily even if a snapshot for the four major times and average them for the day ... the show a 13 months rolling chart (ie. google finance like)

« Last Edit: November 29, 2014, 09:54:17 AM by lascott »
Tools I use: (main) BlueVestment: https://www.bluevestment.com/app/pricing + https://www.interestradar.com/ , (others) Lending Robot referral link: https://www.lendingrobot.com/ref/scott473/  & Peercube referral code: DFVA9Y

avid investor

  • Full Member
  • ***
  • Posts: 168
    • View Profile
Re: Any New Loans Lately?
« Reply #25 on: November 29, 2014, 10:33:57 AM »
Yes, useful info but the 2 AM drop for the wholesale leftovers only found 12 new notes.  (Retail inventory went from 453 to 465 at 2:00:30 Pacific time.)  None that my filter wanted.  The 6:00 AM drop saw 37 new loans (inventory increased from 460 to 497).   Tried to get one but it was sold out.  There really is nothing much these days.

Fred93

  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 2231
    • View Profile
Re: Any New Loans Lately?
« Reply #26 on: November 29, 2014, 01:04:01 PM »
I was hoping you would post Anil's data about this.

It is on this board somewhere.  I looked for it, but did not find it.
« Last Edit: November 29, 2014, 01:07:15 PM by Fred93 »

Fred

  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 1421
    • View Profile
Re: Any New Loans Lately?
« Reply #27 on: November 29, 2014, 01:19:55 PM »
I'm not a programmer, but if I was I'd set up a 24/7 process and have a hurdle rate expected return.  And I'd invest anything over that hurdle rate, that can be adjusted based on LC rates and how they move.  I find notes at all hours of the day when I do it manually.

I am a programmer, and I do this (and then some) on the Folio side.

Lately LC loans that fit my models have been mostly A and B grades; I found Folio to be more alpha-friendly.

rawraw

  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 2793
    • View Profile
Re: Re: Any New Loans Lately?
« Reply #28 on: November 29, 2014, 01:23:02 PM »
I'm not a programmer, but if I was I'd set up a 24/7 process and have a hurdle rate expected return.  And I'd invest anything over that hurdle rate, that can be adjusted based on LC rates and how they move.  I find notes at all hours of the day when I do it manually.

I am a programmer, and I do this (and then some) on the Folio side.

Lately LC loans that fit my models have been mostly A and B grades; I found Folio to be more alpha-friendly.
Yeah I'd have to think alpha is to be had when people price the notes, not Lending Club ha ha

SeanG

  • Newbie
  • *
  • Posts: 12
    • View Profile
    • Email
Re: Any New Loans Lately?
« Reply #29 on: November 29, 2014, 07:10:35 PM »
I've noticed a distinct lack of inventory lately as well. I'm not a programmer and usually pick notes manually. I log on at random times, whenever I am at my computer at home and have some time. There has been nothing for about 10 days of so now. I also switched on automatic investing and even that has gotten me nothing for the past 5 days or so.