LC loan credit trend statistics

[Fred93]

I just checked, and my portfolio contains loans with credit trends in the following proportions:

Up     57.6%
Flat     8.7%
Down 33.7%

I guess I'm happy to see more up than down, but I don't know what to make of these numbers.  Would other folks care to post same info?  No way to quickly get this unfortunately, you have to count, from a spreadsheet or API or whatever. 

[Fred93]

I ran the same analysis on FICO trends in LC's historical loan database.  Here are the results, broken down by year of issue.

Code: [Select]

Down Flat Up Total Down Flat Up
2007 374 59 170 603 62.0% 9.8% 28.2%
2008 1552 101 740 2393 64.9% 4.2% 30.9%
2009 3208 204 1869 5281 60.7% 3.9% 35.4%
2010 7353 466 4718 12537 58.7% 3.7% 37.6%
2011 12797 811 8113 21721 58.9% 3.7% 37.4%
2012 28824 2316 22227 53367 54.0% 4.3% 41.6%
2013 59770 7533 67453 134756 44.4% 5.6% 50.1%
2014 56393 12027 92811 161231 35.0% 7.5% 57.6%
My take:  Depends on when the loan issued.The years that we know had poor loan performance, ie 2007,8,9,10 had more loans with credit scores going down during the loan.  This trend has gradually reversed as the economy has improved. 

Caveats: Many of these loans are uncompleted.  I compared the last FICO to the issue FICO.  I used the 9/2014 database.  I included all loans, no matter what their status.  Loans in later years are mostly not yet completed, so we're comparing changes over different length periods of time (ie for the 2014 loans, the change will only be over a few months, whereas for 2007 loans its almost always over 3 years).  Still, it gives you a direction.

Conclusion re my portfolio: Although I've been an LC investor for many years, I greatly increased my investment during 2014, so my portfolio is heavily weighted with 2014 loans.  Looks like my portfolio credit trends are in line with the whole-LC 2014 portfolio.  Not a very exciting result, but at least I'm not doing worse than everybody else.   

PS: Sorry for the left justified numbers.  I just copy/pasted from Excel, and that produces tab-delimited columns, which works reasonably well in a CODE block on the forum.

[DanB]

93% 36 month loans, 7% 60 month..............  Average age of portfolio is 22.6 months.

Up 56%
Flat 6%
Down 38%

[rawraw]

I would post mine, but I also actively sell large FICO drops on Folio.  So the numbers will be skewed and not sure if they will be helpful to you

[MathGuy]

Up     44.4%  586
Flat    20.5%  271
Down 35.1%  463

125 notes are in review, this accounts for the high percentage of "Flat"
In addition I buy about 15% of the loans from Folio with a down credit score trend at discount.

Your Notes purchased on the Lending Club platform
Adjusted Net Annualized Return3 ?:    18.82%
Weighted Average Interest Rate:    19.95%
Weighted Average Age of Portfolio:    2.1 mos
Number of Notes:    1,194

[avid investor]

Up 47.35%
Down 43.76%
Flat 8.78%

Oldest notes are > 4 years.

Interesting that few remain unchanged by their LC experience. 

[Fred]

Here is mine:

[lascott]

Used InterestRadar to get these numbers.  Breakdown tab then Fico Trend in pull down.

47.03% Up
41.87% Down
11.10% Flat

148 'Not Yet Issued'

90% 36mo
10% 60mo

Avg age 4.2 months.

[lascott]

Are your  number of 'Not Yet Issued' notes count going higher than normal than the past ebb and flow of high and low periods of notes?

[JoeB]

Here are mine:
Up 500
Down 190
Flat 56

[Lovinglifestyle]

Are your  number of 'Not Yet Issued' notes count going higher than normal than the past ebb and flow of high and low periods of notes?

Yes.  My theory is that the longer it takes to return "Not Issued" money, the less demand there is for non-existent loans.

[lascott]

Are your  number of 'Not Yet Issued' notes count going higher than normal than the past ebb and flow of high and low periods of notes?

Yes.  My theory is that the longer it takes to return "Not Issued" money, the less demand there is for non-existent loans.

Wait... because people don't have any money to buy "non-existent" notes/loans?!?!  My "Note Yet Issued" is higher than it has ever been for a few months and I invest the same at the beginning and middle of each month (around paycheck time).

[avid investor]

Are your  number of 'Not Yet Issued' notes count going higher than normal than the past ebb and flow of high and low periods of notes?

Yes.  My theory is that the longer it takes to return "Not Issued" money, the less demand there is for non-existent loans.

Wait... because people don't have any money to buy "non-existent" notes/loans?!?!  My "Note Yet Issued" is higher than it has ever been for a few months and I invest the same at the beginning and middle of each month (around paycheck time).

My guess is that everyone's "not issued" amount is up because we had very low availability for a few weeks, followed by increased availability, so everybody had a feeding frenzy in a short period of time.  LC underwriting hasn't caught up.

[BruiserB]

Are your  number of 'Not Yet Issued' notes count going higher than normal than the past ebb and flow of high and low periods of notes?

Yes.  My theory is that the longer it takes to return "Not Issued" money, the less demand there is for non-existent loans.

Wait... because people don't have any money to buy "non-existent" notes/loans?!?!  My "Note Yet Issued" is higher than it has ever been for a few months and I invest the same at the beginning and middle of each month (around paycheck time).

My guess is that everyone's "not issued" amount is up because we had very low availability for a few weeks, followed by increased availability, so everybody had a feeding frenzy in a short period of time.  LC underwriting hasn't caught up.

And as December is the end of a quarter and year, we have seen LC delay issues once they have made their target numbers to give the following quarter a jump start.

If LC is satisfied with their business for the Quarter/Year, they won't issue many notes for the next 2 weeks....then on Jan 2, you'll see your "not issued" notes issue pretty quickly. 


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[Lovinglifestyle]

None of mine are in the Not Yet Issued column from Nov. 18 backwards.  This seems pretty standard.  The email announcements of order completion slowed down last week (busy staff, end of quarter).  Doesn't matter to me, I just hope the borrowers get their money in a timely fashion for their needs.

My IR Fico Trend is skewed because the graces and lates I sell are usually trending down.

2478 DOWN
 473 FLAT
3283 UP

6234 TOTAL does not include 1299 sold.