Author Topic: Funded percentage  (Read 3278 times)

revizor

  • Newbie
  • *
  • Posts: 4
    • View Profile
Funded percentage
« on: January 01, 2015, 09:33:58 PM »
Does it seem odd that every single loan posted today (1/1/2015) on Lending Club is 45%+ funded?
« Last Edit: January 01, 2015, 09:38:06 PM by revizor »

Fred93

  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 2245
    • View Profile
Re: Funded percentage
« Reply #1 on: January 01, 2015, 10:37:38 PM »
You must have confused yourself somehow.  I see loans funded much less than 45%. 

revizor

  • Newbie
  • *
  • Posts: 4
    • View Profile
Re: Funded percentage
« Reply #2 on: January 01, 2015, 11:10:40 PM »
Everything I can find with today's listing date is over 45% funded. Older loans do show lower funding %. There's a large pattern change in funding percentage that happened on 12/30 - it is more apparent as of 01/01, though.
X is days since exp_d; Y for funded %.

Fred93

  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 2245
    • View Profile
Re: Funded percentage
« Reply #3 on: January 01, 2015, 11:27:35 PM »
Very interesting.  I've never seen this sort of breakdown before. 

There must be something that comes along and grabs about half of every loan.  Must be by design.  Perhaps a built-in limit this buyer has.  Can only speculate on who/what that buyer might be. 

Perhaps the LC automated investing robot?

Fred93

  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 2245
    • View Profile
Re: Funded percentage
« Reply #4 on: January 01, 2015, 11:36:15 PM »
Here's another thought, possibly related.  About a month ago Sociallender observed that when loans first appeared at feeding time they appeared to be mostly half-bought already.  Inquiries were made about this, and it suddenly stopped.

http://www.lendacademy.com/forum/index.php?topic=2825.0

I can speculate that this may have been caused by a bad decision by someone at LC which gave the LC automated investing robot access to loans before they were released to the fractional market.  I can further speculate that this was "fixed" by delaying the robot's entry into the market by some fixed delta after feeding time.  What you now observe might be the result of such a scheme. 

I can verify that right at feeding time, when my software first gets access to the list of new loans, they are 100% available (ie 0% funded).  My s/w displays this info.  What happens over the following minutes and hours I have no idea, because I don't track it.

I know some people track # loans in inventory vs time.  (Nickelsteamroller, main page, near the bottom)  I don't know of anyone tracking or charting %funded vs time for these loans tho.  A robot who stopped at 50% or so on each loan wouldn't be visible on NSRs charts, because he would never change the #loans available.
« Last Edit: January 01, 2015, 11:47:59 PM by Fred93 »

revizor

  • Newbie
  • *
  • Posts: 4
    • View Profile
Re: Funded percentage
« Reply #5 on: January 02, 2015, 12:45:02 AM »
It doesn't look like LC autoinvesting to me - the loans appear to be have higher than the usual average per-investor funded amount; I'd expect # of investors to be significantly higher for LC autoinvestment funding. From what I've observed over the past month (I'm new to p2p lending), LC autoinvesting bears a different "signature" - the loans get more or less progressively funded, resulting in loan disappearance after 4-6 days.
My gut feeling there's some major institutional $ injected, spread out indiscriminately across all outstanding loans that are getting posted.

Fred93

  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 2245
    • View Profile
Re: Funded percentage
« Reply #6 on: January 02, 2015, 04:05:09 AM »
My gut feeling there's some major institutional $ injected, spread out indiscriminately across all outstanding loans that are getting posted.

These recent days have seen significantly higher than normal amount of product enter the fractional marketplace.  > $20M/day.  If this hypothesized big fellow is taking about half of each loan, that means he's buying > $10M/day, day after day.   The only reason I can think of for wanting to go that fast is if you had > $100M to invest (and were impatient enough so that waiting a month to get all the $ invested made you crazy).  Next, one wonders why a guy that large is buying here rather than in the whole-loan market.  Best answer I could come up with is maybe he's buying there also, but that isn't enough for him, so he's buying in both markets.  Would seem to imply he's even larger.  Maybe > $200M. 

Will be interesting to see how long this behavior continues.

AnilG

  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 1122
    • View Profile
    • PeerCube
Re: Funded percentage
« Reply #7 on: January 02, 2015, 04:17:35 AM »
It was interesting at 6:00 pm listing time on Jan 1st. All 128 new loans that were listed at 6:00 pm (detected within a minute by PeerCube) were at least 48% funded.

Based on large number of loans available on platform last few days, I get the feeling that LC may be trying a new allocation mechanism to address the complaints of not enough loans from retail investors. If LC restricts the new loan flow to retail investors by dollar amount instead of number of loans, it could offer retail investors more loans while still keeping the dollar volume same.

After quickly reviewing the recent loan availability data I believe retail investors most probably have capacity to fully fund only about 400 loans per day or deploy about $5M per day. So if LC releases partially funded loans to retail investors, the new loan volume can be increased to 1,000+ which gives retail investors more variety in loans while not letting loans languish on the platform for too long.

---
Anil Gupta
PeerCube Thoughts blog https://www.peercube.com/blog
PeerCube https://www.peercube.com

Fred93

  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 2245
    • View Profile
Re: Funded percentage
« Reply #8 on: January 02, 2015, 05:18:51 AM »
It was interesting at 6:00 pm listing time on Jan 1st. All 128 new loans that were listed at 6:00 pm (detected within a minute by PeerCube) were at least 48% funded.

Perhaps you just didn't get there fast enough to be ahead of the hypothesized big guy.

I don't have the log info from the 1/1 6PM batch, but I do for most recent batches, and my s/w has seen these batches 100% available at first view.  (available = not yet funded)
...
12/31/14 06:00:10.3  Download 372 new loans
12/31/14 06:00:10.3  Batch size: $5,614,175 (100% available)

12/31/14 10:00:07.8  Download 411 new loans
12/31/14 10:00:07.8  Batch size: $5,992,225 (100% available)

12/31/14 14:00:12.8  Download 469 new loans
12/31/14 14:00:12.8  Batch size: $7,388,525 (100% available)

12/31/14 18:00:09.4  Download 267 new loans
12/31/14 18:00:09.4  Batch size: $3,985,025 (100% available)

01/01/15 06:00:11.3  Download 142 new loans
01/01/15 06:00:11.3  Batch size: $1,899,000 (100% available)

01/01/15 10:00:06.8  Download 203 new loans
01/01/15 10:00:06.8  Batch size: $3,062,450 (100% available)
...

Therefore, I reject the notion that LC is presenting these loans to us with 48% already funded.

revizor

  • Newbie
  • *
  • Posts: 4
    • View Profile
Re: Funded percentage
« Reply #9 on: January 02, 2015, 12:53:21 PM »
Fred93 is correct - I myself am seeing the loans come in as 0% funded, and get significant funding in a matter of seconds, with number of investors very low (I'm talking 5-7 investors per loan, possibly fewer).
At the same time, there's a small number of whole loans that makes it to the retail posting. In the chart, they appear below the 45% watermark (they show up half-day delayed for retail investors).
BTW, the base watermark for this morning has lowered to just below 40%