Author Topic: P2P-Picks ends in 1 week. What will YOU do?  (Read 16102 times)

brother7

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P2P-Picks ends in 1 week. What will YOU do?
« on: June 23, 2015, 05:44:00 PM »
With the end of P2P-Picks in 7 days, what strategy are people switching to?
« Last Edit: June 24, 2015, 04:15:41 AM by brother7 »

Rob L

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Re: POLL: P2P-Picks ends in 1 week. What will YOU do?
« Reply #1 on: June 23, 2015, 06:49:58 PM »
I'm thinking tea leaves going forward.

thezfunk

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Re: POLL: P2P-Picks ends in 1 week. What will YOU do?
« Reply #2 on: June 23, 2015, 11:40:43 PM »
You labeled this a poll without actually have one.

brother7

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Re: P2P-Picks ends in 1 week. What will YOU do?
« Reply #3 on: June 24, 2015, 04:17:23 AM »
You labeled this a poll without actually have one.
OK, I changed it.
Just wondering what others plan to do. As for me, I'm back to designing my own filters using NSR for backtesting.

rawraw

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Re: P2P-Picks ends in 1 week. What will YOU do?
« Reply #4 on: June 24, 2015, 08:05:15 AM »
I'll use the Bluevestment filters that Nathan and Marco are rolling out and LendingRobot.

SBryantMS

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Re: P2P-Picks ends in 1 week. What will YOU do?
« Reply #5 on: June 24, 2015, 09:16:28 AM »
I plan on withdrawing money as payments come in.

If anyone can point me to a filter that utilizes statistical analysis like Bryce then I will be back in.  Seems to me that all the filters currently available are just using data points on a specific loan and not comparing the loan to a statistical analysis of completed loans.   

In the mean time, I will be looking to build my own statical tool and try to figure out how to run the LC API against it.

rawraw

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Re: P2P-Picks ends in 1 week. What will YOU do?
« Reply #6 on: June 25, 2015, 06:06:10 PM »
I plan on withdrawing money as payments come in.

If anyone can point me to a filter that utilizes statistical analysis like Bryce then I will be back in.  Seems to me that all the filters currently available are just using data points on a specific loan and not comparing the loan to a statistical analysis of completed loans.   

In the mean time, I will be looking to build my own statical tool and try to figure out how to run the LC API against it.
Pretty sure Peercube uses machine learning.  And Investment Radar used some sort of statistical analysis as well.  LendingRobot uses some statistical calculation as well.  Bryce isn't the only stat guy in the space.

sumtuck

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Re: P2P-Picks ends in 1 week. What will YOU do?
« Reply #7 on: June 26, 2015, 09:25:54 PM »
As Bryce mentioned in his email to his former clients, there are three great solutions out there for people who need to transition away from P2P Picks. If anyone has any questions about NSR Picks, feel free to give me a ring at 720-259-0455 or team [at] nsrinvest.com. We'd be happy to help you with the transition!
Summer Tucker
NSR Invest
www.nsrinvest.com

jonpildis

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Re: P2P-Picks ends in 1 week. What will YOU do?
« Reply #8 on: June 27, 2015, 02:17:28 PM »
As we've previously announced, BlueVestment is releasing a Lending Club P2P-Picks replacement, called BluePicks, on July 1st.

Ricardo, founder of Interest Radar and now the Chief Credit Officer of BlueVestment, has a long track record of building credit scoring algorithms at both Interest Radar and his day job in the debt markets.  Ricardo, Nathan and I have developed two models that should be nice replacements for the Loss Minimizer and Profit Maximizer.

- Blue Picks Moderate (BPM): this model includes the A, B & C graded notes that have the lowest probability of charge-offs.  This will compare very closely to P2P-Picks Loss Minimizer but we have added c-notes to the mix to improve total returns.

- BluePicks Aggressive:  this model includes D, E, F & G notes and is focused on delivering the highest risk adjusted return.  Again, this will compare very closely to Profit Maximizer but we have excluded C notes as we believe they dilute our users' objectives of maximum returns.

We're very pleased with the back-testing results and will have our own accounts, totaling over $300k, dedicated to using BluePicks for all future note selection. We're committed to 'eating our own cooking'.

If anyone has any questions, please don't hesitate to drop me a note at jon@bluevestment.com.
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Jon Pildis
BlueVestment LLC

lascott

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Re: P2P-Picks ends in 1 week. What will YOU do?
« Reply #9 on: June 27, 2015, 03:00:18 PM »
As we've previously announced, BlueVestment is releasing a Lending Club P2P-Picks replacement, called BluePicks, on July 1st.

Ricardo, founder of Interest Radar and now the Chief Credit Officer of BlueVestment, has a long track record of building credit scoring algorithms at both Interest Radar and his day job in the debt markets.  Ricardo, Nathan and I have developed two models that should be nice replacements for the Loss Minimizer and Profit Maximizer.
<snip>
Looking forward to using this myself. The majority of my portfolio is from BlueVestment with P2P-Picks.  I have analyzed InterestRadar models and like how Ricardo's work has a similar "correspondence" with my P2P-Pick's notes. That gives me some confidence in using BluePicks to meet my goals.

[update]
FYI, InterestRadar lets you analyze your current investments via: "My Investments".
http://i.imgur.com/0HZXs25.png

[/update]
« Last Edit: June 27, 2015, 03:36:08 PM by lascott »
Tools I use: (main) BlueVestment: https://www.bluevestment.com/app/pricing + https://www.interestradar.com/ , (others) Lending Robot referral link: https://www.lendingrobot.com/ref/scott473/  & Peercube referral code: DFVA9Y

Rob L

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Re: P2P-Picks ends in 1 week. What will YOU do?
« Reply #10 on: June 27, 2015, 06:28:24 PM »
We're very pleased with the back-testing results and will have our own accounts, totalling over $300k, dedicated to using BluePicks for all future note selection. We're committed to 'eating our own cooking'.
Bryce put a marker out there for the other services when he posted the actual quarterly returns of his personal account. P2P Picks for real, not back tested
Anyone representing the alternatives willing to do the same? BlueV, IR, Lend Robot, P Cube, NSR, PLS, anyone else (don't want to leave anyone out)?
Real results; real money. It's not like you've just started P2P investing.
Folio trading will muddy the waters for comparison with P2P Picks as that was buy and hold.
I suspect there are quite a lot of folks that would like to see a PROVEN (not simply back tested) alternative to P2P Picks. Here's your chance to step up.

lascott

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Re: P2P-Picks ends in 1 week. What will YOU do?
« Reply #11 on: June 27, 2015, 07:09:34 PM »
Interesting point. Even in Bryce's case things/strategies changed over time.  I also liked to see his real-world results the best he could show them.

In the case of IR/Interest Radar they do have an IR01 credit model table which I found useful.

https://www.interestradar.com/scores

http://i.imgur.com/9q2Ddhz.png
Tools I use: (main) BlueVestment: https://www.bluevestment.com/app/pricing + https://www.interestradar.com/ , (others) Lending Robot referral link: https://www.lendingrobot.com/ref/scott473/  & Peercube referral code: DFVA9Y

jonpildis

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Re: P2P-Picks ends in 1 week. What will YOU do?
« Reply #12 on: June 27, 2015, 08:06:22 PM »
We're very pleased with the back-testing results and will have our own accounts, totalling over $300k, dedicated to using BluePicks for all future note selection. We're committed to 'eating our own cooking'.
Bryce put a marker out there for the other services when he posted the actual quarterly returns of his personal account. P2P Picks for real, not back tested
Anyone representing the alternatives willing to do the same? BlueV, IR, Lend Robot, P Cube, NSR, PLS, anyone else (don't want to leave anyone out)?
Real results; real money. It's not like you've just started P2P investing.
Folio trading will muddy the waters for comparison with P2P Picks as that was buy and hold.
I suspect there are quite a lot of folks that would like to see a PROVEN (not simply back tested) alternative to P2P Picks. Here's your chance to step up.

I'm not speaking for BlueVestment on this, rather as an experienced LC investor.  I've attached a screenshot of my returns, largely driven by IR picks, aggressive selling of distressed notes and always having my non-distressed notes listed on folio at 3-5% premiums.  The account is 3 years old and has an average invested value of $150k over those three years.
_____________
Jon Pildis
BlueVestment LLC

Rob L

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Re: P2P-Picks ends in 1 week. What will YOU do?
« Reply #13 on: June 27, 2015, 10:05:29 PM »
Great to see some ground truth Jon and very impressive results! Thanks for the post.
I've been a very happy IR subscriber the past couple of years that I've been P2P investing.
When you say largely driven by IR picks, and we know how quickly many loans are scooped up at LC release times, did you use IR's auto-invest feature to purchase the bulk of your notes?

jonpildis

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Re: P2P-Picks ends in 1 week. What will YOU do?
« Reply #14 on: June 27, 2015, 10:21:00 PM »
Great to see some ground truth Jon and very impressive results! Thanks for the post.
I've been a very happy IR subscriber the past couple of years that I've been P2P investing.
When you say largely driven by IR picks, and we know how quickly many loans are scooped up at LC release times, did you use IR's auto-invest feature to purchase the bulk of your notes?
First, thanks for your business!  I appreciate your kind words on my portfolio performance.  My XIRR tracking spreadsheet is showing my return is closer to 15%... I've never been able to track back to the LC calculations.

Yes, I used IR's auto-invest feature.  I also used BV's auto-invest with my own filtering.  As a customer of both services, I always wished I could combine IR's credit models with BV's execution engine (which is wicked fast).  Now that I've joined BV and we've merged with IR, my wish has almost come true.  Starting July 1st, the IR01-driven BluePicks recommendations will be available on BV.
_____________
Jon Pildis
BlueVestment LLC