Author Topic: Quarter end skew  (Read 10181 times)

jheizer

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Quarter end skew
« on: August 06, 2015, 11:06:49 PM »
Anyone else getting to the point where end of the month + ACH settlement time = HUGE payment amounts?  Since my account is pretty young I am starting to develop a pretty large bias.  Todays payment total was about 1/5 of my monthly total.
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Fred93

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Re: Quarter end skew
« Reply #1 on: August 06, 2015, 11:33:59 PM »
A shockingly large amount of money popped into my account today.  Do you understand what caused this?

jheizer

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Re: Quarter end skew
« Reply #2 on: August 06, 2015, 11:37:00 PM »
Yeah.  Multiple quarter ends now having massive volume with most of them issuing in the end at the same time.  Usually a day or two after the quarter ends. In my case with my account only being ~7 months old It has a larger effect than others since it is fresh, but has gone through the surge twice now.
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lascott

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Re: Quarter end skew
« Reply #3 on: August 07, 2015, 12:47:53 AM »
Yes, happened in both my few month old account and my 1.5 yrs old account.  Probably 1/6th of my monthly amount.

Doesn't line up with the cash flow expectations per day of month via LendingRobot, BlueVestment, or InterestRadar.
« Last Edit: August 07, 2015, 01:15:32 AM by lascott »
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Fred93

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Re: Quarter end skew
« Reply #4 on: August 07, 2015, 04:58:23 AM »
Yeah.  Multiple quarter ends now having massive volume with most of them issuing in the end at the same time.  Usually a day or two after the quarter ends.

Ah, so you're saying ... the quarter-end effect where they hold off during the last 2 weeks of the quarter, then issue a huge number of loans on same day then makes my portfolio have a huge # of loans that have their payments due on the same day of the month.

Interesting what oddball things occur.

jheizer

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Re: Quarter end skew
« Reply #5 on: August 07, 2015, 09:31:52 AM »
Next payment day for my loans. 


Edit: Y axis = number of loans if it wasn't obvious.
« Last Edit: August 07, 2015, 09:36:02 AM by jheizer »
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lascott

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Re: Quarter end skew
« Reply #6 on: August 07, 2015, 10:36:26 AM »
I don't think the quarter end explains what happened yesterday. It happened to both my accounts. My daily graphs are not anything like yours.

Here is my 1.5 yr account.

Image: http://i.imgur.com/8o0m0Ts.png
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BruiserB

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Re: Quarter end skew
« Reply #7 on: August 08, 2015, 07:35:43 PM »
A shockingly large amount of money popped into my account today.  Do you understand what caused this?

Thursdays are always the highest payment day since LC credits the money to our accounts 3 business days after they withdraw it from the payers' accounts.  They don't take money from the payer until Monday if the payment due date fell over the weekend.  So Thursdays' payments are always made up of payments that were due on the previous Saturday, Sunday and Monday.  In the case of this past Thursday, those were also loans that were due on the 1st, 2nd, and 3rd of August.  I haven't done the math on when my loans are due, but I have seen several quarter ends where no loans issue the last 10 days of the quarter and then there is a deluge on the first few days of the month, so I am sure that many of us have a concentration of due dates in the first 3 days of the month.  This month all of those payments were credited to us on Thursday the 6th.  In months where the first few days don't fall on a weekend, this phenomenon isn't so obvious....you still get higher payments over a few days, but you don't get 3 high payment dates all credited at once.
« Last Edit: August 08, 2015, 07:38:03 PM by BruiserB »

Fred93

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Re: Quarter end skew
« Reply #8 on: August 08, 2015, 08:29:59 PM »
From my portfolio...

I have over 3000 notes so these stats should be pretty good.  Days 1,2,3 clearly win.

So when a Thursday falls on the 6th of the month, then that Thursday's payment will include payments due on all 3 big days (1st, 2nd, 3rd) of the month.  This produces a payment of about 15% of the month total, vs the normal daily payment which averages around 3.2% of the month total.  On the average, each Thursdays should pay about 9.7% of a months total.

Great detective work BruiserB.
« Last Edit: August 08, 2015, 08:31:52 PM by Fred93 »

Fred93

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Re: Quarter end skew
« Reply #9 on: August 09, 2015, 12:29:38 AM »
Darn, I did that wrong.  Its the payment date that matters, not the issue date. 



Now this has me confused again, because the orange dots don't fit the theory we've been discussing.  The orange dots have some pretty interesting things going on.  I wonder why people select those payment dates.  Maybe a lot of people get paid in the middle of the month?
« Last Edit: August 09, 2015, 12:32:25 AM by Fred93 »

storm

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Re: Quarter end skew
« Reply #10 on: August 09, 2015, 05:36:52 AM »
I wonder why people select those payment dates.  Maybe a lot of people get paid in the middle of the month?

I had one employer that paid on the 1st and 15th of the month, so I imagine there are a few like that out there.  Mortgage and rent payments are almost always due on the 1st of the month, so, personally, I try to stagger out my other payments the rest of the month if possible.

Fred

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Re: Quarter end skew
« Reply #11 on: August 10, 2015, 01:54:55 AM »
Darn, I did that wrong.  Its the payment date that matters, not the issue date. 
....

Now this has me confused again, because the orange dots don't fit the theory we've been discussing.  The orange dots have some pretty interesting things going on.  I wonder why people select those payment dates.  Maybe a lot of people get paid in the middle of the month?

Try to change your x-axis to day-of-week (Mon-Sun).  My account shows large payments on Thursdays.

It's probably due to LC operations process.

lascott

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Re: Quarter end skew
« Reply #12 on: August 10, 2015, 02:04:58 AM »
Using my method to calculate actual amount from this thread: http://www.lendacademy.com/forum/index.php?topic=3345.0
I created this google calendar.  You can see the formula I used above to build the data rows for the attached HTML.
100% is relative to each months maximum payment. Should be clear from looking at the legend in the calendar chart.
NOTE: Calendar is read vertically!  Weeks are horizontal.

Image: http://i.imgur.com/RNqpucM.png


NOTE: Calendar is read vertically!  Weeks are horizontal.
Image: http://i.imgur.com/8k2SLkQ.png


Attachment is the HTML file I used to create the calendar ( https://developers.google.com/chart/interactive/docs/gallery/calendar )
« Last Edit: August 10, 2015, 02:27:39 AM by lascott »
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Fred

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Re: Quarter end skew
« Reply #13 on: August 10, 2015, 02:18:36 AM »
... in progress ... need to rebuild graph below ...

Nice.  Didn't know that you can do this with Google Calendar.  Good to know!

Just to keep the discussion around payment, could you also graph payment (instead of payoff) vs day-of-week?

Fred93

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Re: Quarter end skew
« Reply #14 on: August 10, 2015, 02:22:51 AM »
Try to change your x-axis to day-of-week (Mon-Sun).  My account shows large payments on Thursdays.



Mine too.

This is a histogram of the day-of-week of the "next payment date" provided by the LC API for each of my notes.  The NPD provided by the API is adjusted for when LC will pay me, unlike the NPD in the LC notes web page, which is when the borrower pays LC.
« Last Edit: August 10, 2015, 02:52:31 AM by Fred93 »