Author Topic: What does your "Understanding Your Returns" page look like? Here's mine  (Read 253284 times)

storm

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Re: What does your "Understanding Your Returns" page look like? Here's mine
« Reply #675 on: August 04, 2017, 06:50:17 PM »
I think we conceded early on in this thread that LC's ANAR was not very accurate, but it is right there when you log in.  It doesn't depend on my bad math and Excel skills.  It is quick to change when returns go up or down though.  XIRR is very slow to show a trend change.  Calculating simple interest from month to month doesn't factor in compounding.  There are pros and cons to all these calculations.  Keep that in mind when judging the numbers.

There are some 2%+ CDs out there.  Probably not a wise idea to lock up money right now if the Fed keeps raising rates.  I agree that the stock market is likely to meet some resistance before going any higher.  Some ETFs like VCLT (Vanguard investment-grade long-term corporate bonds) are paying 4% annualized monthly dividends if you buy and hold and ignore the share price fluctuations.  Not too shabby if you are looking to diversify unless I'm missing something.

Rob L

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Re: What does your "Understanding Your Returns" page look like? Here's mine
« Reply #676 on: August 04, 2017, 07:19:30 PM »
What is CANAR?  I haven't seen that defined anywhere on LC or on this forum.  It seems to have just appeared randomly in this thread...

Combined Adjusted Net Annualized Return.

Thanks, that makes sense.

Just to be clear, CANAR is something that happens when you trade notes on Folio. It "combines" your primary (buy and hold) note returns with the returns from notes traded on Folio. Guess my Folio note trading was profitable since my CANAR is a point or so above my ANAR. Presently I don't pay a lot of attention to either as I'm letting my portfolio run off at its own pace.  I hear the Fed plans to do the same with its balance sheet but control the pace and at a somewhat larger scale :)

lascott

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« Last Edit: September 12, 2017, 09:44:18 PM by lascott »
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arcee49

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Re: What does your "Understanding Your Returns" page look like? Here's mine
« Reply #678 on: August 07, 2017, 03:13:27 PM »
What is CANAR?  I haven't seen that defined anywhere on LC or on this forum.  It seems to have just appeared randomly in this thread...

Combined Adjusted Net Annualized Return.

Thanks, that makes sense.

Just to be clear, CANAR is something that happens when you trade notes on Folio. It "combines" your primary (buy and hold) note returns with the returns from notes traded on Folio. Guess my Folio note trading was profitable since my CANAR is a point or so above my ANAR. Presently I don't pay a lot of attention to either as I'm letting my portfolio run off at its own pace.  I hear the Fed plans to do the same with its balance sheet but control the pace and at a somewhat larger scale :)

Yeah, I've been trading on Folio (well, just buying) for a while now so I was familiar with the combined ANAR.  Which mine is currently ~5 points above the notes I bought straight from LC.  I had just never seen that return calculation referred to as CANAR before, but I should have been able to figure that one out.

Wish I had a balance sheet the size of the Fed...  :P

SLCPaladin

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Re: What does your "Understanding Your Returns" page look like? Here's mine
« Reply #679 on: August 07, 2017, 03:43:14 PM »
Quote
I feel like I spend a boatload of time on this for ~5% (and falling) current return.

This sentence pretty much sums up my thoughts right now. In the early days, I think LC investment was a no-brainer. I cautiously recommended this as an asset class to friends and family. Now though, the risk/reward equation has shifted.

In looking at the returns by lascott's wonderful spreadsheet, it's apparent to me that I am about middle of the pack here, although on LC's own chart I'm definitely in the upper 80-90% of investors based on my portfolio characteristics. I'm pushing about 7% lifetime returns, but recent returns have been dismal due to higher default rates.

The amount of time and effort I have needed to invest to learn, select, pick, and try to earn a higher yield is becoming too high for me., and I don't even trade on Folio. It's not that I don't think it can't be done, it's just that I don't want to do it anymore. I'm an RN, not a programmer, accountant, banker, analyst, etc. so my skill set is decidedly different than probably a lot of posters here. I'd rather pick up an extra shift at the hospital and get overtime and keep my eye out for FDIC-insured CDs (which I have over $200k in at 3.1%) and wait for the stock market/bond market to re-correct and purchase. Just my 2 cents.

Now if LC were to raise there rates and figure out how not to punish investors for early payoffs, I'd probably reconsider my decision.

Edward Reid

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Re: What does your "Understanding Your Returns" page look like? Here's mine
« Reply #680 on: September 02, 2017, 12:47:16 PM »
2017-09-02

Adjusted Net Annualized Return:   7.44%
Weighted Average Interest Rate:   13.80%
Weighted Average Age of Portfolio:   14.6 mos
Number of Notes:   502

Grade: A (0.4%) B (1.7%) C (96.5%) D (1.4%) E (0.0%) F (0.0%) G (0.0%)
Term: Payments  36 (46.3%) 60 (53.7%)

vs All Accounts: 88.72
vs Similar Age Accounts: 97.31
vs Similar Age and WAIR Accounts: 97.70

(no folio)

Paulie2083

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Re: What does your "Understanding Your Returns" page look like? Here's mine
« Reply #681 on: September 02, 2017, 03:33:55 PM »
unusual to see many people here winding their accounts down at around the same time. i am as well. something in the air maybe?

COMBINED Adjusted Net Annualized Return3 ?:   9.48%
Weighted Average Interest Rate:   19.68%
Weighted Average Age of Portfolio:   11.3 mos
Number of Notes:   1,384

vs All Accounts:
94.27
vs Similar Age Accounts:
98.70
vs Similar Age and WAIR Accounts:
97.42

A (0.0%) B (0.0%) C (1.1%) D (63.6%) E (35.3%) F (0.0%) G (0.0%)
Payments  36 (56.7%) 60 (43.3%)

COMBINED Adjusted Net Annualized Return3 ?:   9.28%
Weighted Average Interest Rate:   19.76%
Weighted Average Age of Portfolio:   12.4 mos
Number of Notes:   1,243

vs All Accounts:
95.32
vs Similar Age Accounts:
99.32
vs Similar Age and WAIR Accounts:
99.03

A(0.0%) B (0.0%) C (1.1%) D (61.1%) E (37.7%) F (0.0%) G (0.0%)
Payments  36 (52.1%) 60 (47.9%)

jennrod12

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Re: What does your "Understanding Your Returns" page look like? Here's mine
« Reply #682 on: September 03, 2017, 07:00:55 PM »
Jennrod12 "buy & hold" account - I missed last month, sorry about that!

Adjusted Net Annualized Return: 3.73%
Weighted Average Interest Rate:   13.48%
Weighted Average Age of Portfolio:   22.6 mos
Number of Notes:   200
Number of Active Notes:   126

A(1.2%) B (21.2%) C(41.2%) D(25.3%) E(8.4%) F(2.6%) G(0.0%)
Payments  36(98.8%) 60(1.2%)

vs All Accounts:  36.87
vs Similar Age Accounts:  38.53
vs Similar Age and WAIR Accounts:  36.71

Not much action in this account these days, other than continuing monthly payments and early payoffs.  However, the return is down to "3.73%" on the Lending Club landing page.  23 of the original 200 loans have charged off, 51 have paid off  (22 mos average age).  I'm also holding in my much larger IRA account, and haven't re-invested any this year, charge-offs keep piling up there (account opened late 2015, at the worst time, I know, but I put money into it through 2016 and never saw any improvement, so I've stopped).

Thanks,

Jenn

Rob L

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Re: What does your "Understanding Your Returns" page look like? Here's mine
« Reply #683 on: September 04, 2017, 10:29:19 AM »
As of 9/1/2017:

Combined Adjusted Net Annualized Return:  7.16%
Weighted Average Interest Rate: 17.42%
Weighted Average Age of Portfolio: 34.8 mos
Number of Notes: 9714

Notes Breakdown: Active: 2639 (27.2%), Fully Paid: 5627 (57.9%), Charged Off: 1448 (14.9%)
Number of Traded Notes: 1348

Grade
A (0.4%) B (6.0%) C (1.7%) D (59.2%) E (31.8%) F (0.9%) G (0.0%)

Term
36 (100%) 60 (0%)

Weighted Average Age is now past the end of the "Understanding Your Returns" chart (i.e. earth is my blue dot).
« Last Edit: September 04, 2017, 10:32:54 AM by Rob L »

SLCPaladin

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Re: What does your "Understanding Your Returns" page look like? Here's mine
« Reply #684 on: September 04, 2017, 10:58:35 AM »
As of 9/4/2017:

Adjusted Net Annualized Return:  7.04%
Weighted Average Interest Rate: 14.21%
Weighted Average Age of Portfolio: 29.4 mos
Number of Notes: 6415

Grade
A (12%) B (27.1%) C (23.2%)
D (17.6%) E (16.8%) F (2.6%) G (0.7%)

Term
36 (41.1%) 60 (58.9%)

vs All Accounts: 86.49
vs Similar Aged Accounts: 92.89
vs Similar Aged and WAIR Accounts: 92.75

My blue dot is almost off the chart now.

Lovinglifestyle

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Re: What does your "Understanding Your Returns" page look like? Here's mine
« Reply #685 on: September 04, 2017, 01:49:30 PM »
As of 9/4/2017:

Combined Net Adjusted Annualized Return:  8.36%
Weighted Average Interest Rate:                18.93%
Weighted Average Age of Portfolio:             45.6 mos
Number of Notes:  5435

Notes Breakdown:  Active: 885; Fully Paid: 4221; Charged Off: 328                               
Number of Traded Notes:  6786 (3.70 ANAR)

Grade:
A(0.6%) B (1.9%) C(5.3%) D(11.1%) E(47.3%) F(24.2%) G(9.6%)

Term:
36(41.2%) 60(58.8%)

vs All Accounts: 92.90

Am still winding down, mostly for tax reasons and common sense re net returns vs. effort.


lascott

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Re: What does your "Understanding Your Returns" page look like? Here's mine
« Reply #686 on: September 12, 2017, 04:01:53 PM »
Sorry for the delay. Thanks for stories/input. Will continue this until end of year (Jan for Dec numbers). I have another surgery very early next month so not quite sure of the delay in updates but you can provide your numbers.

Aug 17 (vs Jul 17)
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Lovinglifestyle

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Re: What does your "Understanding Your Returns" page look like? Here's mine
« Reply #687 on: September 12, 2017, 05:16:22 PM »
I hope your next surgery takes care of whatever that problem is.  Waiting for surgeries is awful.  Hope you're nearing the end of them, successfully.  I empathize. Thank you for the chart this month.

lascott

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Re: What does your "Understanding Your Returns" page look like? Here's mine
« Reply #688 on: September 12, 2017, 05:37:39 PM »
I hope your next surgery takes care of whatever that problem is.  Waiting for surgeries is awful.  Hope you're nearing the end of them, successfully.  I empathize. Thank you for the chart this month.
Thanks. They need to reconstruct the eye orbit area (again). I think we have the right person for the job. I'll be OK one way or the other. Ups and downs but my perspective keeps being adjusted. Lot of people in the NW and SE parts of the USA (plus islands) who are suffering in longterm difficult ways (fires, flooding, huricanes, etc).
« Last Edit: September 17, 2017, 07:51:59 PM by lascott »
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Re: What does your "Understanding Your Returns" page look like? Here's mine
« Reply #689 on: September 17, 2017, 03:40:53 PM »
2017-09-17

Adjusted Net Annualized Return:   6.73%
Weighted Average Interest Rate:   12.20%
Weighted Average Age of Portfolio:   20.7 mos
Number of Notes:   3793

Grade: A (37.7%) B (2.4%) C (35.6%) D (17.6%) E (6.5%) F (.2%) G (.1%)
Term: Payments  36 (46.3%) 60 (53.7%)

vs All Accounts: 84.95
vs Similar Age Accounts: 96.43
vs Similar Age and WAIR Accounts: 95.61

_______________________________________________________________
I continue converting to grade A loans since December of 2016.  So now I am buying just A loans and started with zero in December.  Out of 1100 loans so far 1 has charged off and there are 3 which are headed that way.  In the meantime my returns have been negative or about zero for the past few months as there are a lot of charge off on the other loans.  Looks fairly dismal but still waiting to see how it goes with the new A loans. 

lascott:  good luck on the surgery.