Author Topic: What does your "Understanding Your Returns" page look like? Here's mine  (Read 248266 times)

storm

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Re: What does your "Understanding Your Returns" page look like? Here's mine
« Reply #600 on: June 01, 2017, 03:01:20 AM »
Combined ANAR:  9.28%
Weighted Average Interest Rate:   15.13%
Weighted Average Age of Portfolio:   34.4 mos
Number of Notes:   6,624

A(0.0%) B (9.8%) C(44.6%) D(23.5%) E(17.3%) F(3.7%) G(1.2%)
36(35.5%) 60(64.5)

vs All Accounts: 93.34
vs Similar Age Accounts: 0.00
vs Similar Age and WAIR Accounts: 0.00

XIRR:  9.63%

Draining my account to pay off my mortgage since the bleeding continues...

SLCPaladin

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Re: What does your "Understanding Your Returns" page look like? Here's mine
« Reply #601 on: June 01, 2017, 01:58:41 PM »
As of 6/1/2017:

Adjusted Net Annualized Return:  7.30%
Weighted Average Interest Rate: 14.21%
Weighted Average Age of Portfolio: 26.3 mos
Number of Notes: 6415

Grade
A (12.9%) B (27.7%) C (23.0%)
D (17.3%) E (16.0%) F (2.5%) G (0.6%)

Term
36 (42.4%) 60 (57.6%)

vs All Accounts: 83.69
vs Similar Aged Accounts: 91.72
vs Similar Aged and WAIR Accounts: 90.17

I continue to draw down my account. Moving funds to FDIC-/NCUA-insured 3-5 year CDs.

Lovinglifestyle

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Re: What does your "Understanding Your Returns" page look like? Here's mine
« Reply #602 on: June 01, 2017, 05:25:20 PM »
Combined Adjusted Net Annualized Return 8.48%
Weighted Average Interest Rate:   18.70%
Weighted Average Age of Portfolio: 41.2 mos
Number of Notes: 5,801

A(0.4%) B (5.2%) C(11.5%) D(13.4%) E(41.0%) F(20.7%) G(7.7%)
Payments  36(37.9%) 60(62.1%)

vs All Accounts:
90.78
vs Similar Age Accounts:
0.00
vs Similar Age and WAIR Accounts:
0.00

Am in process of withdrawing 8K more as it accumulates, and sending it back to my short term treasury account to reimburse myself for LC taxes paid.

Rob L

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Re: What does your "Understanding Your Returns" page look like? Here's mine
« Reply #603 on: June 01, 2017, 06:06:14 PM »
As of 6/1/2017:

Combined Adjusted Net Annualized Return:  7.43%
Weighted Average Interest Rate: 17.42%
Weighted Average Age of Portfolio: 31.7 mos
Number of Notes: 9715

Grade
A (0.4%) B (6.0%) C (1.7%)
D (59.8%) E (31.4%) F (0.8%) G (0.0%)

Term
36 (100%) 60 (0%)

vs All Accounts: 85.25
vs Similar Aged Accounts: 0.0
vs Similar Aged and WAIR Accounts: 0.0

My account age is now past the end of the "Understanding Your Returns" chart. But for earth itself I'd have no blue dot.
Withdrew 25% of account value that had built up in cash since 2/16/2017 when I ceased all investments.
No plans to resume. Plan to invest withdrawals in Goldman Sachs.  :)

jz451

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Re: What does your "Understanding Your Returns" page look like? Here's mine
« Reply #604 on: June 02, 2017, 12:57:09 AM »
Combined Adjusted Net Annualized Return:  10.94%
Weighted Average Interest Rate: 20.6%
Weighted Average Age of Portfolio: 24.46 mos
Number of Notes: 211

Grade
A (0.0%) B (0.0%) C (2.3%)
D (36.5%) E (43.0%) F (10.7%) G (7.4%)

Term
36 (0.3%) 60 (99.7%)

vs All Accounts: 96.91
vs Similar Aged Accounts: 99.83
vs Similar Aged and WAIR Accounts: 100

Paulie2083

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Re: What does your "Understanding Your Returns" page look like? Here's mine
« Reply #605 on: June 03, 2017, 12:52:59 AM »
Adjusted Net Annualized Return3 ?:   9.39%
Weighted Average Interest Rate:   19.57%
Weighted Average Age of Portfolio:   8.4 mos
Number of Notes:   1,315

(0.0%) B (0.0%) C(1.2%) D(64.0%) E(34.7%) F(0.0%) G(0.0%)
36(55.9%) 60(44.1%)

vs All Accounts:
94.44
vs Similar Age Accounts:
94.02
vs Similar Age and WAIR Accounts:
90.42
As of 5/4

Adjusted Net Annualized Return3 ?:   9.67%
Weighted Average Interest Rate:   19.60%
Weighted Average Age of Portfolio:   9.0 mos
Number of Notes:   1,383

(0.0%) B (0.0%) C(1.2%) D(64.0%) E(34.9%) F(0.0%) G(0.0%)

vs All Accounts:
94.52
vs Similar Age Accounts:
96.05
vs Similar Age and WAIR Accounts:
91.96

Adjusted Net Annualized Return3 ?:   9.79
Weighted Average Interest Rate:   19.62%
Weighted Average Age of Portfolio:   9.7 mos
Number of Notes:   1,421

(0.0%) B (0.0%) C(1.1%) D(64.3%) E(34.6%) F(0.0%) G(0.0%)

vs All Accounts:
94.64
vs Similar Age Accounts:
97.34
vs Similar Age and WAIR Accounts:
95.48

jasondhsd

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Re: What does your "Understanding Your Returns" page look like? Here's mine
« Reply #606 on: June 03, 2017, 01:47:57 AM »
Horrible. Just fucking horrible.

SeanMCA

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Re: What does your "Understanding Your Returns" page look like? Here's mine
« Reply #607 on: June 03, 2017, 12:25:25 PM »
Yeah, I have had a net loss over the last 9 months. All my account is doing is eroding all the "gains" booked from the first couple years.

I partially blame the early payoffs. About 40% of my notes have paid off early, depriving me of the interest I expected to earn over the loans' lifetimes from these good borrowers. In many cases, those borrowers paid off after the 12-month mark, meaning that Lending Club also charged me a 1% fee on my own outstanding principal.

Is Lending Club giving the good borrowers a 2nd loan and are a significant percentage of these borrowers using it to pay off their first ones? I believe they are. Thank you Lending Club for sticking me as the investor in the first loans with the resulting losses.
I'm a merchant cash advance veteran exploring the p2p lending waters.

apc3161

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Re: What does your "Understanding Your Returns" page look like? Here's mine
« Reply #608 on: June 03, 2017, 09:36:40 PM »
Yeah, I have had a net loss over the last 9 months. All my account is doing is eroding all the "gains" booked from the first couple years.

I partially blame the early payoffs. About 40% of my notes have paid off early, depriving me of the interest I expected to earn over the loans' lifetimes from these good borrowers. In many cases, those borrowers paid off after the 12-month mark, meaning that Lending Club also charged me a 1% fee on my own outstanding principal.

Is Lending Club giving the good borrowers a 2nd loan and are a significant percentage of these borrowers using it to pay off their first ones? I believe they are. Thank you Lending Club for sticking me as the investor in the first loans with the resulting losses.

My thoughts exactly. I think LC should give you back the "origination fee" when they refinance a bowerer. Basically, they are just leaving you with non-paying loans. Quite frustrating.

rawraw

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Re: What does your "Understanding Your Returns" page look like? Here's mine
« Reply #609 on: June 04, 2017, 07:40:16 AM »
I am making money again but  have had to reduce the size of my portfolio for tax reasons.  Given the stress last year and the size of my taxable account, I need to try to be tax efficient with my losses.  I'm not comfortable using retirement vehicles for my situation, but perhaps I need to start one

Rob L

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Re: What does your "Understanding Your Returns" page look like? Here's mine
« Reply #610 on: June 04, 2017, 09:37:44 AM »
I am making money again but  have had to reduce the size of my portfolio for tax reasons.  Given the stress last year and the size of my taxable account, I need to try to be tax efficient with my losses.  I'm not comfortable using retirement vehicles for my situation, but perhaps I need to start one

Just curious about the stress test thing. I've not done one (bad on me) but if I had I would have taken '08 and '09 as worst case stress. Fred93 showed the other day that from LC's own numbers, chargeoffs for the higher risk grades are now (or have recently been) worse than they were back then. Obviously these chargeoffs could get even worse. How did you determine the stress in stress test? And also, did you include the possibility of losing everything for reasons such as a major fraud, lawsuit, or other black swan? After all, LC isn't too big to fail, so how did you handle that?

rawraw

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I am making money again but  have had to reduce the size of my portfolio for tax reasons.  Given the stress last year and the size of my taxable account, I need to try to be tax efficient with my losses.  I'm not comfortable using retirement vehicles for my situation, but perhaps I need to start one

Just curious about the stress test thing. I've not done one (bad on me) but if I had I would have taken '08 and '09 as worst case stress. Fred93 showed the other day that from LC's own numbers, chargeoffs for the higher risk grades are now (or have recently been) worse than they were back then. Obviously these chargeoffs could get even worse. How did you determine the stress in stress test? And also, did you include the possibility of losing everything for reasons such as a major fraud, lawsuit, or other black swan? After all, LC isn't too big to fail, so how did you handle that?

I don't worry about Lending Club credit risk because I believe we'd see signs before it was necessary to think about it. The cash would start to decline, but they have a lot of it.

I didn't specifically use a stress test for the tax stuff but it was in the back of my mind.

Whenever I built a stress test a few years ago, I segmented my portfolio by grade. I then took the peak losses from the recession vintages by grade and assumed those losses happened immediately. I remove those losses  from the principal and recalculate earnings on the remaining notes in each sub group.  I also just assumed all currently past due notes were losses. It's a rough estimate but I think a useful guide for stressed losses. Then I tested the sensitivity of each loss assumption (1 assumption per grade) using a tornado diagram.



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jpildis

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Re: What does your "Understanding Your Returns" page look like? Here's mine
« Reply #612 on: June 04, 2017, 09:59:56 AM »
Combined Adjusted Net Annualized Return:  9.96%
Weighted Average Interest Rate: 20.87%
Weighted Average Age of Portfolio:  20.3 mos
Number of Notes: 3041 (excluding fully paid and charge-offs)

Grade
A (0.0%) B (0.0%) C (0.1%)
D (20.8%) E (47.4%) F (26.6%) G (5.1%)

Term
36 (2.8%) 60 (97.2%)

XIRR = 9.65%

Current (95.89%), IGP (0.92%), 16-30 (0.55%), 31+ (2.59%), default (0.06%)

FICO Trend = Up (79.41%), Flat (4.82%), Down (15.77%)

Can't really do comparisons as over 70% of my portfolio was purchased via Folio.

dr.everett

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Re: What does your "Understanding Your Returns" page look like? Here's mine
« Reply #613 on: June 04, 2017, 01:59:16 PM »
Yeah, I have had a net loss over the last 9 months. All my account is doing is eroding all the "gains" booked from the first couple years.

I partially blame the early payoffs. About 40% of my notes have paid off early, depriving me of the interest I expected to earn over the loans' lifetimes from these good borrowers. In many cases, those borrowers paid off after the 12-month mark, meaning that Lending Club also charged me a 1% fee on my own outstanding principal.

Is Lending Club giving the good borrowers a 2nd loan and are a significant percentage of these borrowers using it to pay off their first ones? I believe they are. Thank you Lending Club for sticking me as the investor in the first loans with the resulting losses.

I'm in the same boat- made the decision today to wind down my LC Taxable account and move it to Fundrise. A couple of things led to this decision:

1. Lending Robot revised their estimates on my account and both accounts lost 2%

2. Seeing the posts here made me run my numbers for the year so far, each account has made only $1-2K for the year after all chargeoffs, losses, etc. (This was very eye opening...)

3. The small amount of money I current have in Fundrise has done nothing but grow at a rate of 8.25% each quarter. No losses, chargeoffs, nothing. Can't ignore that.

4. Once I figure out what needs to be done with my LC IRA account I'll start that process. I know from others it has to be well planned and thought out to avoid unnecessary costs. Going to dig up some of those threads on the forum and start seeing what others have done.

All in all very depressing.

nonattender

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A little nonsense now and then is relished by the wisest men.