Author Topic: What does your "Understanding Your Returns" page look like? Here's mine  (Read 253297 times)

jz451

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Re: What does your "Understanding Your Returns" page look like? Here's mine
« Reply #660 on: August 01, 2017, 12:54:45 PM »
Been a rough month had a surge for my small account in notes being delinquent.

Combined ANAR:  9.64%
Weighted Average Interest Rate:   20.4%
Weighted Average Age of Portfolio: 26.47 mos
Number of Notes: 214

A (0.0%) B (0.0%) C (2.9%) D (39.3%) E (43.4%) F (9.3%) G (5.1%)
36 (0.2%) 60 (99.8%)

vs All Accounts: 94.69
vs Similar Age Accounts: 99.52
vs Similar Age and WAIR Accounts: 98.73

Paulie2083

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Re: What does your "Understanding Your Returns" page look like? Here's mine
« Reply #661 on: August 02, 2017, 10:52:32 PM »
unusual to see many people here winding their accounts down at around the same time. i am as well. something in the air maybe?

COMBINED Adjusted Net Annualized Return3 ?:   9.48%
Weighted Average Interest Rate:   19.68%
Weighted Average Age of Portfolio:   11.3 mos
Number of Notes:   1,384

vs All Accounts:
94.27
vs Similar Age Accounts:
98.70
vs Similar Age and WAIR Accounts:
97.42

A (0.0%) B (0.0%) C (1.1%) D (63.6%) E (35.3%) F (0.0%) G (0.0%)
Payments  36 (56.7%) 60 (43.3%)
« Last Edit: August 02, 2017, 10:54:35 PM by Paulie2083 »

storm

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Re: What does your "Understanding Your Returns" page look like? Here's mine
« Reply #662 on: August 02, 2017, 11:32:48 PM »
unusual to see many people here winding their accounts down at around the same time. i am as well. something in the air maybe?

My returns have been trending down for about a year now, and just when it looks like it is leveling off, I have another really bad month.  I have a smaller IRA account that I'm still investing in (not reported here), but the returns are going south on it too.  Meanwhile, the DOW reached an all time high today.  Why should I keep my money at LC?

Fred93

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Re: What does your "Understanding Your Returns" page look like? Here's mine
« Reply #663 on: August 03, 2017, 01:18:25 AM »
Meanwhile, the DOW reached an all time high today.  Why should I keep my money at LC?

Diversification.  DOW will go down.

.Ryan.

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Re: What does your "Understanding Your Returns" page look like? Here's mine
« Reply #664 on: August 03, 2017, 10:28:17 AM »
My returns have been trending down for about a year now, and just when it looks like it is leveling off, I have another really bad month.

Storm, your CANAR is almost 9%, and your XIRR is even higher (per your previous post). Out of curiosity, by what standard did you have another really bad month?

Edward Reid

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Re: What does your "Understanding Your Returns" page look like? Here's mine
« Reply #665 on: August 03, 2017, 12:29:32 PM »
Meanwhile, the DOW reached an all time high today.  Why should I keep my money at LC?
Diversification.  DOW will go down.
And lower volatility, depending on your choices. Those investing in E/F class may consider the risk similar to stocks. But I'm mostly in hand-picked class C, and evidence from the past is that this portfolio is far less volatile than stocks, not as safe as bonds but with far better returns than bonds and virtually no risk of loss of capital. My ANAR dropped under 8% the past few months and crept back up to 8%, and my portfolio is now old enough to have reached its likely minimum ANAR. I realize that it isn't likely to maintain 8% all the way to the end, but it still offers a combination of return and safety that's hard to find elsewhere.

Edward

storm

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Re: What does your "Understanding Your Returns" page look like? Here's mine
« Reply #666 on: August 03, 2017, 02:39:26 PM »
Storm, your CANAR is almost 9%, and your XIRR is even higher (per your previous post). Out of curiosity, by what standard did you have another really bad month?

I've been doing this for over 9 years, and the ANAR and XIRR are very much imperfect and lagging indicators.  When I annualize my month-to-month numbers and do a 1 year trailing XIRR, my return is closer to 5.5-6%.  Furthermore, my monthly charge-offs are typically 2-3 times the gain I'm making.  I haven't had a negative month yet, but I've come very close.

I haven't completely lost hope, or I would have sold all my notes by now.  6% return is nothing to sneeze at, but looking at the trend plus the high amount of charge-offs are having me re-evaluate this investment.

.Ryan.

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Re: What does your "Understanding Your Returns" page look like? Here's mine
« Reply #667 on: August 03, 2017, 09:13:21 PM »
Storm, your CANAR is almost 9%, and your XIRR is even higher (per your previous post). Out of curiosity, by what standard did you have another really bad month?

I've been doing this for over 9 years, and the ANAR and XIRR are very much imperfect and lagging indicators.  When I annualize my month-to-month numbers and do a 1 year trailing XIRR, my return is closer to 5.5-6%.  Furthermore, my monthly charge-offs are typically 2-3 times the gain I'm making.  I haven't had a negative month yet, but I've come very close.

I haven't completely lost hope, or I would have sold all my notes by now.  6% return is nothing to sneeze at, but looking at the trend plus the high amount of charge-offs are having me re-evaluate this investment.

Thank you for the response Storm. I've become pretty frustrated myself with the way each service (both platform and management/robo services) that I use calculate returns. Each boast of the 8%+ that I am, or will be, earning, but even my simple math tells me that number isn't even close to reality.

Rob L's (whom I respect on this board very much) posts on his returns caught my eye. If you read in his "worst month yet" post, you'll see that in the last 8 of 10 months there has been a neutral to negative return. However according to this thread, his CANAR as reported by LC is nearly 7.4%. How can that be?       

Rob L

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Re: What does your "Understanding Your Returns" page look like? Here's mine
« Reply #668 on: August 04, 2017, 10:21:10 AM »
Rob L's (whom I respect on this board very much) posts on his returns caught my eye. If you read in his "worst month yet" post, you'll see that in the last 8 of 10 months there has been a neutral to negative return. However according to this thread, his CANAR as reported by LC is nearly 7.4%. How can that be?     

ANAR and CANAR are computed by LC for all notes you now own or have ever owned. The first couple of years or so I enjoyed an ANAR percentage in the low teens. All loans were 36 month term so many are now either fully paid or charged off. These were very profitable. My current CANAR reflects a steady slide downward, the start of which somewhat predated the start of the "worst month yet" thread. Last fall I sold about half my notes on Folio (1348 notes). My "Traded Notes" ANAR is 16.73% resulting from that selling. Today my "Primary Notes" ANAR is 6.55% and combined CANAR is 7.29%.

arcee49

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Re: What does your "Understanding Your Returns" page look like? Here's mine
« Reply #669 on: August 04, 2017, 12:23:39 PM »
What is CANAR?  I haven't seen that defined anywhere on LC or on this forum.  It seems to have just appeared randomly in this thread...

SLCPaladin

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Re: What does your "Understanding Your Returns" page look like? Here's mine
« Reply #670 on: August 04, 2017, 01:26:19 PM »
What is CANAR?  I haven't seen that defined anywhere on LC or on this forum.  It seems to have just appeared randomly in this thread...

Combined Adjusted Net Annualized Return.

Fred93

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Re: What does your "Understanding Your Returns" page look like? Here's mine
« Reply #671 on: August 04, 2017, 02:11:40 PM »
Rob L's (whom I respect on this board very much) posts on his returns caught my eye. If you read in his "worst month yet" post, you'll see that in the last 8 of 10 months there has been a neutral to negative return. However according to this thread, his CANAR as reported by LC is nearly 7.4%. How can that be?     

Whoa.   Several answers.

1. It is not correct that "the last 8 of 10 months there has beena  neutral to negative return".  True I'm sure for some people.  My return has been positive.  May be true on the average for posters to this thread, but that's the nature of this thread.  Your return and my return doesn't have to match some other guy's return.

2. ANAR/CANAR are computed FOR ALL TIME.  I've been investing here for 9 years.  ANAR is a return measure that is effectively averaged over that 9 years.  It doesn't say anything about my return for the last few months.  I could have a few months of negative return and that would reduce my ANAR just a little bit. A return measure (of any kind) computed over the last month doesn't have to match some other return measure computed over several years.

I suggest you compute your own measure of return.

arcee49

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Re: What does your "Understanding Your Returns" page look like? Here's mine
« Reply #672 on: August 04, 2017, 02:27:11 PM »
What is CANAR?  I haven't seen that defined anywhere on LC or on this forum.  It seems to have just appeared randomly in this thread...

Combined Adjusted Net Annualized Return.

Thanks, that makes sense.

.Ryan.

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Re: What does your "Understanding Your Returns" page look like? Here's mine
« Reply #673 on: August 04, 2017, 04:33:37 PM »
Rob L's (whom I respect on this board very much) posts on his returns caught my eye. If you read in his "worst month yet" post, you'll see that in the last 8 of 10 months there has been a neutral to negative return. However according to this thread, his CANAR as reported by LC is nearly 7.4%. How can that be?     

Whoa.   Several answers.

1. It is not correct that "the last 8 of 10 months there has beena  neutral to negative return".  True I'm sure for some people.  My return has been positive.  May be true on the average for posters to this thread, but that's the nature of this thread.  Your return and my return doesn't have to match some other guy's return.

Sorry Fred93, I should have been more clear. I was referring specifically to Rob L's returns, and not the sum total. I was just pointing out a case of someone who has had a significanct string of negative negative months lately but still has a positive CANAR (which you and he have clearly explained why).

I suggest you compute your own measure of return.

You're right, I don't argue that at all. I'm just adding that to the list of things you need to do (or pay someone to do) in P2P investing nowadays. You need to figure out an optimal investing strategy, you need to pick your own notes, you need to calculate your own measure of return, you need to determine the tax implications.....

I feel like I spend a boatload of time on this for ~5% (and falling) current return.

Fred93

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Re: What does your "Understanding Your Returns" page look like? Here's mine
« Reply #674 on: August 04, 2017, 04:50:35 PM »
I feel like I spend a boatload of time on this for ~5% (and falling) current return.

~5% return is very hard to find these days.   Don't underestimate its value.

There are no reasonable bonds that will give you 5% return on a 12 month duration investment.  (LC and Prosper 3 year notes  have about a 12 month duration.  Would be 18 months if all paid on schedule, but many prepay.)  The value of short duration investing is that you bear very little interest rate risk.  Compare similar duration investments.  Don't compare LC notes with their 12 month duration to 30 year bonds, which may have a 20 year duration.

I have some short term money in treasuries and CDs.  I can get as much as 1% these days!  Whoopee!

On the stock market ... A lot of people look at recent past returns, and say "Hey, the stock market is returning X%", but that's not the right way to look at it.  The stock market is highly valued now, which means that the chances for a large return in stocks over the next several years is very small.  Stock market now has a lot of risk.  That doesn't mean you shouldn't invest there.  It just means you need some other sorts of investments as well.

A short duration investment with a 5% return is still a gift.  Isn't as good as it was a few years ago, but then what is.