Author Topic: only A/B notes available?  (Read 5580 times)

Edward Reid

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only A/B notes available?
« on: September 23, 2015, 10:48:00 AM »
As of a few minutes ago -- 10:40 EDT -- only A and B notes are available. I was startled when my normal search said "none available", so I expanded it -- relaxed every single filter to show all notes available, double-checked and triple-checked the Interest Rate filter. First there were 246 A/B loans, and over a few minutes that dropped (no surprise) to 245, then 244. Absolutely no C/D/E/F/G -- easy to scan the list because of the colors.

What's going on? Where did the C notes go, not to mention all the lower grades?

Edward

lascott

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Re: only A/B notes available?
« Reply #1 on: September 23, 2015, 11:05:10 AM »
This has been happening recently. "retail" investors ... sure.

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Re: only A/B notes available?
« Reply #2 on: September 23, 2015, 11:29:21 AM »
Doesn't bode well for next quarter's loan volume increase :/

Edward Reid

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Re: only A/B notes available?
« Reply #3 on: September 23, 2015, 11:45:19 AM »
Thanks ... is your "capacity timeline" grabbed from the web, or is it your proprietary 8) construction?

At least there are still B5 loans available ... clearly whoever is hoovering all the C+ loans is stopping at the B/C boundary. Of course I'm not surprised, since I too concluded that C is the sweet point given my situation. And B5 isn't that far from C1.

Your chart also reminded me that I need to be thinking Pacific Time, not Eastern.

From the time I started P2P, I've been saying that a major limitation is that the demand for investing might outpace the demand for borrowing. Obviously it's happening. I'm not familiar with all the numbers, but it's not clear that there's a good way to adjust it. Of course, lowering interest rates would have a balancing effect, but I don't know how low they can go and still be certain of covering charge-offs.

Edward

Fred93

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Re: only A/B notes available?
« Reply #4 on: September 23, 2015, 01:43:41 PM »
Supply always drops near end of quarter.  That's now.

jheizer

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Re: only A/B notes available?
« Reply #5 on: September 23, 2015, 02:21:18 PM »
It's that time of year... err quarter.
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lascott

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Re: only A/B notes available?
« Reply #6 on: September 23, 2015, 03:05:53 PM »
Thanks ... is your "capacity timeline" grabbed from the web, or is it your proprietary 8) construction?
https://www.bluevestment.com/app/home

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« Last Edit: September 23, 2015, 03:07:47 PM by lascott »
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Edward Reid

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Re: only A/B notes available?
« Reply #7 on: September 23, 2015, 06:04:14 PM »
Thanks for the points about EOQ, and to lascott for the link.

Cheers,

Edward

WES

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Re: only A/B notes available?
« Reply #8 on: September 25, 2015, 03:53:17 PM »
What am I missing here? Wouldn't a company, especially a publicly-traded company, push to improve/raise metrics prior to EOQ? Why does listing volume decline at EOQ?

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Re: only A/B notes available?
« Reply #9 on: September 25, 2015, 03:54:49 PM »
They've probably already improved it enough that they rather get a jump start on next quarter vs blow away the number this quarter.
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Fred93

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Re: only A/B notes available?
« Reply #10 on: September 25, 2015, 04:10:38 PM »
What am I missing here? Wouldn't a company, especially a publicly-traded company, push to improve/raise metrics prior to EOQ? Why does listing volume decline at EOQ?

No, not necessarily.  I know that is what some companies do.  However, observation of the numbers shows that LC does something different.  They have demand far in excess of what they need.  They have therefore chosen to grow at a controlled rate.  If you look at their reported numbers (loan numbers, not earnings numbers) they are VERY smoothly growing at a fixed rate.  About doubling every year.  They let loans run at a little above this rate during the quarter, and then slow down at the end to hit their number precisely.  At the beginning of the next quarter, we see the flood gates open.

WES

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Re: only A/B notes available?
« Reply #11 on: September 25, 2015, 04:14:53 PM »
Hmmm. Hence, volatility is controlled.

Rob L

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Re: only A/B notes available?
« Reply #12 on: September 25, 2015, 06:46:40 PM »
Meanwhile my cash builds up, LC's revenues slow and Wall Street remains unimpressed.
If LC's profitability went up and loan issuance didn't meet "managed growth" expectations, would  that be a bad thing for the company?

rawraw

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Re: only A/B notes available?
« Reply #13 on: September 25, 2015, 10:14:19 PM »
Meanwhile my cash builds up, LC's revenues slow and Wall Street remains unimpressed.
If LC's profitability went up and loan issuance didn't meet "managed growth" expectations, would  that be a bad thing for the company?
Speaking as someone who is among the company of those pesky Wall Street analysts, people seem prefer companies that are easy to model ie have predictable income/expenses.  Think of it, you'd prefer to pay a higher premium for a consistent income stream than a volatile one.  So even if profits may increase this quarter or next, i'm not sure the increased volatility would offset the few cents of EPS they squeeze out to get it.  But could be totally wrong, just my guess.  I don't cover the tech space

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Re: only A/B notes available?
« Reply #14 on: September 29, 2015, 11:05:18 AM »
When applying a filter, I see loans that weren't there a few hours ago, but they've only got 7 or 8 days left. Clearly someone is getting early crack at the inventory in a huge way.