Author Topic: Worst Month Yet  (Read 184989 times)

thezfunk

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Re: Worst Month Yet
« Reply #315 on: December 09, 2016, 05:46:37 PM »
Those Ds have to be getting refinanced either through LC or a competitor.

Just so happens that I received a pre-approved offer from Discover in the mail today.
In the letter they tout same day approval, loan terms of 3, 4, 5, 6 or 7 years, up to $35k and no origination or closing fees.
There's a "Compare the Benefits" table including LC, Prosper, Citibank Personal Loan and PNC bank. No Marcus.
Top line of the table; zero origination or closing fees for all but LC and Prosper (which they estimate to be about $675 for both).
Anyone with a loan at a Discover competitor like LC would likely pick up the phone and call Discover. It's free and easy. No downside.

Got one of those about six months ago and posted it here, before I started running a little experiment with my own FICO - for other reasons - which sits at well >800 with ~0% util (I've been doing PIF, even before they report balances, each month - though a couple hundred bucks here or there will show up on a card or two, last day or so of the month, and get reported)...  I decided to look like a good, Christmas-shopping consumer this month (instead of a deadbeat/tightwad) and loaded up a 0% card with a ton of stuff which I'm going to let get reported, before PIF in January (maybe, depending on if any interesting rate arb opportunities arise, w/fed move).

I should be in the sweet spot for LC/P/GS/STI/DFS loan offers, both on the credit side and on the amount side - I expect to learn a lot from my January junkmail about who's doing what... ;)

What do you want to know?  My wife literally gets at least one Prosper or Lending Club mailer a week.  They are getting sneaky now on the envelope.  They used to say who they were from and I would throw it out without opening it.  Now they are unmarked.  I'll show you whatever comes in if you want.  Blocking out key details, of course.

I imagine we are a target because we bought a house in Jan 2016 and promptly took our 0% offers on two credit cards and two store financing options to get things like floors, windows, and two bathrooms remodeled (I was a busy beaver, still am).  My budget has them all getting paid off before the 0% expires so I am paying in the neighborhood of ~3k a month towards these debts.  I keep track of FICO and credit reports via Credit Karma and I see our high balances dropping like a stone.

thezfunk

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Re: Worst Month Yet
« Reply #316 on: December 09, 2016, 05:54:39 PM »
You guys are right on utilization hitting FICO.  Using my house buying and remodeling experiment I can say that I went from almost 0% utilization and a score around 780 and within a month or two I had a mortgage and $40k in financed debt at 0%.  My score dropped to 660-670 range and my utilization jumped over 60%.  I am now down to about 30% utilization and saw the biggest single jump since I started paying it all off.  30% utilization is a magic number on your overall score but also on individual cards it seems.  To maximize a score I would keep overall utilization below 30% and all of the individual lines of credit below 30% as well.

I should have everything but the mortgage paid off by next fall.  It has been an interesting ride...credit wise. 

The authorized user thing worked for me too.  My score was higher than the wife's and making her an authorized user on mine jumped her score significantly and didn't impact mine at all.

Rob L

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Re: Worst Month Yet
« Reply #317 on: December 09, 2016, 06:35:32 PM »
won't share my findings there, but will say that the old authorized user trick still seems to work - took friend from ~650 to ~770 w/an authorized user tradeline from one of my cards (had no negative effect on me, but fico 08 jumped friend's score as soon as reported).

I'll validate that one. Been there, done that. Didn't even know it was a "trick". Yeah, 100+ FICO points, easily. Even more.
On the other hand maybe FICO isn't so stupid in that regard. If someone with an 800+ authorizes someone else to use their credit card then there's probably more than simple friendship involved. The 800+ is going to pay that card for sure and very probably a whole lots of other bills.

Rob L

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Re: Worst Month Yet
« Reply #318 on: December 09, 2016, 06:46:15 PM »
The authorized user thing worked for me too.  My score was higher than the wife's and making her an authorized user on mine jumped her score significantly and didn't impact mine at all.
My wife's FICO is always higher than mine. She has a few dozens of $2k limit cards at retail outlets that make the difference. We always get a laugh about it. She last worked outside the home in the 70's (except to keep the books for my company which she did exceptionally well; at least I hope she did).  :)

Rob L

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Re: Worst Month Yet
« Reply #319 on: December 09, 2016, 06:49:43 PM »
I imagine we are a target because we bought a house in Jan 2016 and promptly took our 0% offers on two credit cards and two store financing options to get things like floors, windows, and two bathrooms remodeled (I was a busy beaver, still am).  My budget has them all getting paid off before the 0% expires so I am paying in the neighborhood of ~3k a month towards these debts.  I keep track of FICO and credit reports via Credit Karma and I see our high balances dropping like a stone.

What a great arbitrage opportunity!!
Whoa... wait... never mind!  :)

thezfunk

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Re: Worst Month Yet
« Reply #320 on: December 09, 2016, 07:52:33 PM »
I imagine we are a target because we bought a house in Jan 2016 and promptly took our 0% offers on two credit cards and two store financing options to get things like floors, windows, and two bathrooms remodeled (I was a busy beaver, still am).  My budget has them all getting paid off before the 0% expires so I am paying in the neighborhood of ~3k a month towards these debts.  I keep track of FICO and credit reports via Credit Karma and I see our high balances dropping like a stone.

What a great arbitrage opportunity!!
Whoa... wait... never mind!  :)

I am, of course, getting a ton of new credit card offers.  I am keeping an eye out for 0% balance transfer cards that DON'T CHARGE A FEE OR HAVE A MINIMUM FEE.  I already used the only one I know of.  If I wanted to ease up on my aggressive payoff schedule to get more work done on the house, I could push out 0% longer.  If you have any ideas, let me know :-)

thezfunk

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Re: Worst Month Yet
« Reply #321 on: December 09, 2016, 09:26:55 PM »
So, I am paying some bills and did another check.  This last month I had a ton of work related expenses that all hit at once.  I run those through my card instead of work so that I can get the rewards points for it.  They are quick to pay and I don't have to float it very long.  Those expenses pushed me back up over the 30% usage for the month and dropped by FICO by 20 points.  30% is definitely a breaking point.

anabio

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Re: Worst Month Yet
« Reply #322 on: December 09, 2016, 11:58:15 PM »
For quite a long time my fico was around 804. Within the past year I went on a "application spree". Got an AARP Visa, PENFED Visa, Amex Blue. Already had Freedom, CapOne, DoubleCash and USAA. The AARP and Amex Blue came with a 12 month and 18 month interest free period. Had no decent balance transfer so I didn't do that. What I did do was charge the heck out of the AARP & Amex. Amex had limit of $20,000. Up to a month ago I had that up to $11,000 (over 50%). AARP had limit of $15,000. Up to a month ago I had that up to $3,400 (20%)

A few months ago I got a balance transfer offer of 0% 18 months 2% fee from Capone. I grabbed that. Limit was $20,000. I wrote checks to myself for $17,000. That put me at 85% utilization. A short time later I got an offer from Freedom for 0% for 12 months with NO fee. I grabbed that. Limit is $17,000. Took out all 17,000. 100% utilization.

In case you are wondering, I planned this and did it for a special purpose. Just got REAL lucky with that FREEDOM offer.

All told I had around $123,000 in  credit limit on these cards. My overall utilization across all cards was 40%. My Fico went from 804 to 733.

Decided to change  my Penfed HELOC to a 5/5 plan (to lock in the 3.75% for the next 5 years...inflation WILL come back you know). Worried about my fico hurting my chance for that rate so paid down cards to get utilization down somewhat.

Took Amex down to $9,000.  Utilization is 45%
Took freedom down to $8,000. Utilization  is 48%
Took Capone down to $13,800. Utilization is 69%
Too AARP down to $3,000. Utilization is 20%
Overall utilization now at 27.5%.

Just checked my Fico from 4 different Credit Cards (offering free fico scores) and Fico ranges from 765 to 773 with above utilization.

So apparently my score only tumbled around 70 points with the heaviest utilization. It only dropped around 20 points with my latest utilization.
As Will Rogers stated: : I'm not as concerned about the return on my money as I am the return of my money

nonattender

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Re: Worst Month Yet
« Reply #323 on: December 10, 2016, 12:17:06 AM »
What do you want to know?  My wife literally gets at least one Prosper or Lending Club mailer a week.  They are getting sneaky now on the envelope.  They used to say who they were from and I would throw it out without opening it.  Now they are unmarked.  I'll show you whatever comes in if you want.  Blocking out key details, of course.

I'd love to see anything from Marcus (Goldman), DFS (Discover), Suntrust ("LightStream"), and Synchrony Financial (formerly GE) - but happy to see any others about whom I may not yet know... ;)

Marketing points the way, in these kinds of businesses, I think.

I took a big (for me) position in Suntrust, after taking very close look at their LightStream online portal, early 2016 - at the time, their site was very wonky and they were only acquiring online - very tight underwriting, not very automated, paper/human intensive - but saw they'd recognized the opportunity early and were moving in the right direction.  Think they've done a little over $2 billion, this yr, automated a whole lot of the underwriting/orig/servicing - have opened up to non-Suntrust banking clients and lowered qualification.

I know that DFS knocked off CreditKarma and is "giving" away free credit scores (while upselling their own loans and cards) - they are the first that I saw doing direct mail solicitations (comp chart, as someone mentioned, included both LendingClub and Prosper - which, naturally, caught some very serious attention from me - "use us instead of p2p and save about a grand" was compelling marketing). ;)  I believe they're also innovating around a student loan/home loan hybrid product, not sure if that'll work, but it appears to be "novel".

Synchrony Financial (formerly GE, before they sold it to ditch "too big to fail") is also doing some interesting stuff online, lately - I have not seen straight up consumer loan offerings, but they appear to be doing their own "free score" platform, too, so, they are coming...

Then there's Goldman/Marcus... I've never actually seen an ad or mailer - though I do see ads for the 1.05% apy deposit side of that.

Those are the big kids on my potential 'p2p-poachers' list, but there may be others - and, back to FICO, due to some flaws/quirks, I'm not sure that they're poaching what they think they're poaching, credit-quality wise, given my observe re: cc->unsecured loan xfers - but I don't think any of them are too dependent / solely focused on just poaching p2p/mpl borrowers, so, they'll be fine in aggregate.
A little nonsense now and then is relished by the wisest men.

nonattender

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Re: Worst Month Yet
« Reply #324 on: December 10, 2016, 12:26:12 AM »
won't share my findings there, but will say that the old authorized user trick still seems to work - took friend from ~650 to ~770 w/an authorized user tradeline from one of my cards (had no negative effect on me, but fico 08 jumped friend's score as soon as reported).

I'll validate that one. Been there, done that. Didn't even know it was a "trick". Yeah, 100+ FICO points, easily. Even more.
On the other hand maybe FICO isn't so stupid in that regard. If someone with an 800+ authorizes someone else to use their credit card then there's probably more than simple friendship involved. The 800+ is going to pay that card for sure and very probably a whole lots of other bills.

Yeah - you and me, nothing for them to worry about.  But, way back, in old people like me days, when p2p was just getting started / I was just beginning to "not believe"/"want to test" fico/etc, discovered there was a black market for tradelines.  This was pre-housing crash - and a lot of mortgage/re types were pointing clients to sites where they could "rent-a-tradeline"... combined with NINJA loans, that was big business.  FICO came out and claimed, after the crash, that they'd closed the AU "loop-hole" - but it appears to live on - there are some cases (husband/wife) where it makes sense, and maybe they're smart about that, but I wanted to check.  I believe - now - that the way they 'closed' that little loop-hole was to have a guy write up a press release saying it wouldn't work anymore.  :)
A little nonsense now and then is relished by the wisest men.

thezfunk

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Re: Worst Month Yet
« Reply #325 on: December 10, 2016, 03:19:54 AM »
Here is the latest from Prosper that came today.  They are way past their 'second attempt'.

http://imgur.com/a/YuNZ9

nonattender

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Re: Worst Month Yet
« Reply #326 on: December 10, 2016, 05:22:09 PM »
Here is the latest from Prosper that came today.  They are way past their 'second attempt'.

http://imgur.com/a/YuNZ9

That's cute.  First thing I noticed was that Chris Larsen's signature is still on the check, so, good to know Prosper is keeping the marketing fresh.  ::)

(Also, that "second attempt" language - stamped bright red! - is straight out of collections letters - who the hell thought that looked "enticing"?)

I had about 30 (no hyperbole) Discover offers from the last 12-18 months sitting around that I threw away a few weeks ago - they'd at least try to trick me in new and different formats.  I do think someone in their marketing office is totally OCD about testing out different envelope colors and sizes;  looked like I was closing down a stationery store when I finally dumped all that stuff into the garbage can...

ETA:  Just got the mail.  It's their 0% discover card product, today, in a standard-sized gold-ish envelope w/bright pink credit card on it - perhaps adding that (male) friend as an AU on one of my cards has painted me (mistakenly) as homosexual - and now i get new, flamboyant colors?

I'd really like to see their direct mail response rates based upon envelope size/color/etc, now...  Surely it can't matter so much --- can it?
« Last Edit: December 10, 2016, 05:44:05 PM by nonattender »
A little nonsense now and then is relished by the wisest men.

Rob L

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Re: Worst Month Yet
« Reply #327 on: December 20, 2016, 05:29:14 PM »
About one year ago:



Today:



Kinda says it all doesn't it. I'm not talking about my own dot, but the whole of the data.


jheizer

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Re: Worst Month Yet
« Reply #328 on: December 20, 2016, 05:48:43 PM »
Wow, your image had me really depressed looking at the dip in the graph that appears around 13 months.  Especially since I am at 14.5months.  It made me wonder what the average return for a given average age was.



Note that it is based on number of accounts, not dollar value, but still it is pretty damn obvious.  :(


This also reminded me I promised to add graphs to the my site.  I'll try to do that soon.
Replacement to P2P Quant's Percentile Tool http://lc.geekminute.com

apc3161

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Re: Worst Month Yet
« Reply #329 on: December 20, 2016, 10:30:56 PM »
Is anybody NOT taking money out? I know I am taking out all the cash as it comes in now and investing elsewhere. I mean c'mon, tax free bonds have better returns than LC p2p right now. Do they think investors will just accept these returns? 4-5% is not worth the trouble/risk.