Author Topic: Worst Month Yet  (Read 200393 times)

michael49

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Re: Worst Month Yet
« Reply #420 on: February 05, 2017, 08:26:15 AM »
I took a loss in both my taxable and IRA accounts in January (been up and down this year). I've been investing with BP aggressive filter for a while now - I'm going to keep with it for another 6 months or so but I'm not convinced I'm making a wise decision. :(

Rob L

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Re: Worst Month Yet
« Reply #421 on: February 05, 2017, 10:24:53 AM »
Oh man!  I just got slammed.



Ouch! Looks like you've got the Jan "prize" for worst month yet. Really ugly.
I notice from the "Understanding ..." thread that you have more C's than any other grade, followed by D's and E's.
Compared with my month (almost exclusively D's and E's) the lower risk C's didn't help your results.

jheizer

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Re: Worst Month Yet
« Reply #422 on: February 06, 2017, 09:31:53 AM »
Yeah.  its kind of frustration.  At the very beginning of Jan I started investing in Bs and a tiny % of Cs again.  Then you all talked about it in a few thread and made me feel better about my decision.  I was actually about to up the investment per note to help catch up from the large cash backup I have and then this happens.  Not sure what I am going to do now.

FWIW my default/charged off by grade



And my notes per month of issue date.



I'm concentrated in such a small range of dates of a defunct vintage.  I'm not sure there is anything I could have done to prevent any of this.  Well other than not having switched to folio excluding buying after the May mess because that just concentrated my notes even more.  Discounted loss...
Replacement to P2P Quant's Percentile Tool http://lc.geekminute.com

Rob L

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Re: Worst Month Yet
« Reply #423 on: February 07, 2017, 10:19:55 AM »
From the looks of it you've already done a lot. It appears you pretty much stopped reinvesting last May. Only about 15% of your notes are in the May 16 through Jan 17 period so you took a lot of cash off the LC table during that period. That was probably a good thing; particularly with what we now know from LC's recent 8-k filing.

Since you made a very substantial change in invested dollars over the past 6 months you might want to chart chargeoffs lagged by 5 or 6 months versus interest received to get a better picture of "badness". Another data point to help decide what to do next.

jheizer

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Re: Worst Month Yet
« Reply #424 on: February 07, 2017, 10:40:06 AM »
Well, I stopped making deposits in Jan of 2016 as I had as much money in LC as I wanted.  I wanted to give it a year or so to see how things actually progressed.  Kind of glad I did...  So that last spike up is that money investing.  On May 5th I stop investing in new loans and wrote an automated folio buyer buying at deep discounts.  Which in turn made even more of my loans late 2015/early 2016.  The stepping down from there is just a result of 2016 loans slowly coming available on folio.

If its not clear:
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screwedbylendingclub

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Re: Worst Month Yet
« Reply #425 on: February 07, 2017, 04:55:26 PM »
Here are the results for the strategy:



After checking Lending Club maybe a dozen times, I've come to the conclusion that buying in-grace notes is simply not a viable strategy. Lack of liquidity is the issue: there are simply not enough notes available. Even if you could develop a computer vision robot, you'd be lucky to even snag 5 25/50 notes per month. In theory, the cure rate should be more than 65% (and even more than the cure rate of regular in-grace notes), but even if only 50% cure, you would end up with a 38-45% return. I've defaulted back to the penny note strategy for E/F/G notes. This seems to be safer than buying them straight out. Right now, my combined return is -2.04%. I'll update when I get positive/change services.

Rob L

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Re: Worst Month Yet
« Reply #426 on: February 07, 2017, 05:04:33 PM »
Well, I stopped making deposits in Jan of 2016 as I had as much money in LC as I wanted.  I wanted to give it a year or so to see how things actually progressed.  Kind of glad I did...  So that last spike up is that money investing.  On May 5th I stop investing in new loans and wrote an automated folio buyer buying at deep discounts.  Which in turn made even more of my loans late 2015/early 2016.  The stepping down from there is just a result of 2016 loans slowly coming available on folio.

Well obviously it's just a guess but I'd think you're better off by having paused contributions in Jan changed strategies on 5 May. Cash accumulated and you possibly picked up some better deals from Folio than would have been the case if you'd bought newly minted notes. You certainly have a choice now as to where to go from here that you would not have had otherwise. That's gotta be a good thing.

AnilG

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Re: Worst Month Yet
« Reply #427 on: February 07, 2017, 05:29:55 PM »
You might be interested in my blog posts on delinquent notes in secondary market.

Selling Delinquent Notes on Lending Club Folio Secondary Market, Part 1: Loss Aversion
https://www.peercube.com/blog/post/selling-delinquent-notes-on-lending-club-folio-secondary-market-part-1-loss-aversion

Trading Delinquent Notes, Part 2: Needle in the Haystack
https://www.peercube.com/blog/post/trading-delinquent-notes-part-2-needle-in-the-haystack

I haven't got around to posting the third part in this series yet though wrote draft soon after publishing part 2 (draft needed too much cleanup based on feedback and other higher priority stuff showed up).

Here are the results for the strategy:



After checking Lending Club maybe a dozen times, I've come to the conclusion that buying in-grace notes is simply not a viable strategy. Lack of liquidity is the issue: there are simply not enough notes available. Even if you could develop a computer vision robot, you'd be lucky to even snag 5 25/50 notes per month. In theory, the cure rate should be more than 65% (and even more than the cure rate of regular in-grace notes), but even if only 50% cure, you would end up with a 38-45% return. I've defaulted back to the penny note strategy for E/F/G notes. This seems to be safer than buying them straight out. Right now, my combined return is -2.04%. I'll update when I get positive/change services.
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PeerCube Thoughts blog https://www.peercube.com/blog
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screwedbylendingclub

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Re: Worst Month Yet
« Reply #428 on: February 08, 2017, 08:21:40 PM »
Very insightful. I hadn't even taken the collection fees into account. Your commentator is spot on: it pretty much kills all incentive to invest in them.

anabio

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Re: Worst Month Yet
« Reply #429 on: February 16, 2017, 07:11:19 AM »
It looks like I finally turned the corner with notes going IGP...its about time :-\. Only have 1 note in grace right now (out of 533 current). In January I had around 6-7 in grace at any given time. Previous months I mostly had double digit graces at any given time.

I figure the reason might be that since most of my notes only have 2-4 more payments left (weighted average age is 33 months) my borrowers have finally figured out that they might as well "stick it out" and just continue paying. I have no real proof of that except anecdotally. I notice a few of my notes taking a plunge in Fico score but still remaining current in payments (so far). I think they are making those payments because they realize they only have a few more payments left. In the past I think they would have just said "to heck with this stuff" and stopped.
As Will Rogers stated: : I'm not as concerned about the return on my money as I am the return of my money

anabio

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Re: Worst Month Yet
« Reply #430 on: February 24, 2017, 07:55:25 PM »
It looks like I finally turned the corner with notes going IGP...its about time :-\. Only have 1 note in grace right now (out of 533 current). In January I had around 6-7 in grace at any given time. Previous months I mostly had double digit graces at any given time.

Well...if that don't beat all... I mentioned I only  had one note in IGP and what happens??? 5 trade days later...whomp!...I now have 12. Would have been 13 but the one I had IGP on the 16th went 16-30 days late.
As Will Rogers stated: : I'm not as concerned about the return on my money as I am the return of my money

Rob L

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Re: Worst Month Yet
« Reply #431 on: February 24, 2017, 08:23:52 PM »
It looks like I finally turned the corner with notes going IGP...its about time :-\. Only have 1 note in grace right now (out of 533 current). In January I had around 6-7 in grace at any given time. Previous months I mostly had double digit graces at any given time.

Well...if that don't beat all... I mentioned I only  had one note in IGP and what happens??? 5 trade days later...whomp!...I now have 12. Would have been 13 but the one I had IGP on the 16th went 16-30 days late.
"If it weren't for bad luck I'd have no luck at all ..."

anabio

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Re: Worst Month Yet
« Reply #432 on: February 24, 2017, 09:04:54 PM »
"If it weren't for bad luck I'd have no luck at all ..."

Gloom, despair and agony on me. Deep dark depression, excessive misery. If it weren't for bad luck I'd have no luck at all...Gloom, despair and agony on me ;)

Heard this tune sung many times on a deeply philosophical tv show named HeeHaw during the late 60's!!!
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BkzE23pyME4
As Will Rogers stated: : I'm not as concerned about the return on my money as I am the return of my money

lascott

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Re: Worst Month Yet
« Reply #433 on: February 25, 2017, 11:49:55 AM »
"If it weren't for bad luck I'd have no luck at all ..."

Gloom, despair and agony on me. Deep dark depression, excessive misery. If it weren't for bad luck I'd have no luck at all...Gloom, despair and agony on me ;)

Heard this tune sung many times on a deeply philosophical tv show named HeeHaw during the late 60's!!!
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BkzE23pyME4
That was hilarious! My wife and I reminisced about watching that show on Sunday nights with our families. We just watched several youtube videos.

BTW, I currently have 51 IGPs and I'm at the fairly conservative end of the note grade investor!!
Tools I use: (main) BlueVestment: https://www.bluevestment.com/app/pricing + https://www.interestradar.com/ , (others) Lending Robot referral link: https://www.lendingrobot.com/ref/scott473/  & Peercube referral code: DFVA9Y

anabio

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Re: Worst Month Yet
« Reply #434 on: February 25, 2017, 01:50:07 PM »
"If it weren't for bad luck I'd have no luck at all ..."

Gloom, despair and agony on me. Deep dark depression, excessive misery. If it weren't for bad luck I'd have no luck at all...Gloom, despair and agony on me ;)

Heard this tune sung many times on a deeply philosophical tv show named HeeHaw during the late 60's!!!
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BkzE23pyME4
That was hilarious! My wife and I reminisced about watching that show on Sunday nights with our families. We just watched several youtube videos.

BTW, I currently have 51 IGPs and I'm at the fairly conservative end of the note grade investor!!

Dang it...had that song echoing through my mind yesterday...finally got rid of it after a couple of hours....now you just went and started it up all over again. :o

Hee Hee Hee, Haw Haw...
Hee Hee Hee, Haw Haw...
As Will Rogers stated: : I'm not as concerned about the return on my money as I am the return of my money