Author Topic: Worst Month Yet  (Read 258296 times)

Rob L

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Re: Worst Month Yet
« Reply #465 on: June 04, 2017, 03:18:05 PM »
Another month, another statement (May 2017), but this month a profit ($21.63 or 0.03% of principal invested)!
Same old, same old as you see:







Fred93

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Re: Worst Month Yet
« Reply #466 on: June 04, 2017, 06:40:03 PM »
My updates including May data...

Chargeoffs in my account were really low this month.  Don't know why.  I have over 5000 loans, which you would expect to be large enough so that random variation from month to month would not be this large, yet I am skeptical, as I don't see such a drop in other folks' accounts.


My late ratio chart shows not only my account, but also LC's broad based fund, and consumer credit delinquency reported by the St Lous Fed.  Reports from the fund and the fed take longer to get.  What you see is latest available.


So things look like they've stabilized, ie not getting worse at the moment. 

jheizer

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Re: Worst Month Yet
« Reply #467 on: June 04, 2017, 08:30:28 PM »
I have been really anxious for this month's statements to be released with so many people in the understanding your returns thread talking bout pulling out.  My numbers are still improving and my number of late and grace notes are still trending down.

Replacement to P2P Quant's Percentile Tool http://lc.geekminute.com

Rob L

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Re: Worst Month Yet
« Reply #468 on: June 07, 2017, 06:28:39 PM »
I have been really anxious for this month's statements to be released with so many people in the understanding your returns thread talking bout pulling out.  My numbers are still improving and my number of late and grace notes are still trending down.

Love the chart. Wish it were mine.
Delinquencies (not including grace) may be our best canary in the coal mine for the future.
Bet (at your convenience  :)  ) you could whip out a late / (late + current) chart pretty easily and we could see what you are seeing.
My delinquencies have been pretty flat since last November (and not particularly good). Certainly not dropping significantly.
Also, for all of us, it would be good to include the WAIR of our current and late notes as a comment on the charts to be able to identify low risk and high risk portfolios.
Obviously this isn't the LC WAIR that includes all notes from all times, just the current and late ones.

jheizer

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Re: Worst Month Yet
« Reply #469 on: June 07, 2017, 08:05:49 PM »
I'm about 80% $25 notes, rest $50 and $75
Just straight averages here as I only have a few minutes vs WAIR
Current: 13.99
Grace: 16.33
Late: 16.19

I don't have the dollar values for late available off hand, but I do have the counts.



Slight uptick in Late 31 with a drop in grace to match as expected.

Replacement to P2P Quant's Percentile Tool http://lc.geekminute.com

Rob L

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Re: Worst Month Yet
« Reply #470 on: June 08, 2017, 11:24:55 AM »
I'm about 80% $25 notes, rest $50 and $75
Just straight averages here as I only have a few minutes vs WAIR
Current: 13.99
Grace: 16.33
Late: 16.19

Very nice! Thanks for the info.

Rob L

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Re: Worst Month Yet
« Reply #471 on: July 03, 2017, 06:17:45 PM »
Déjà vu, another losing month.
However, I'm pleased the losses are extremely small and my outstanding principal is declining at about 9% per month.
What's the saying?? "All good things must come to an end" ...






Rob L

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Re: Worst Month Yet
« Reply #472 on: August 04, 2017, 06:59:05 PM »
Things are not improving for me. Delinquencies heading towards a new high and another losing month.
Thought things might be getting better, but I was wrong.






jheizer

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Re: Worst Month Yet
« Reply #473 on: August 04, 2017, 07:39:17 PM »
Man. Stinks.  My month was still improving more.  My charge off as percent of interest is sub 35%. Though I did have a slight uptick in the 31 day + late count.
Replacement to P2P Quant's Percentile Tool http://lc.geekminute.com

Rob L

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Re: Worst Month Yet
« Reply #474 on: August 04, 2017, 08:18:43 PM »
Man. Stinks.  My month was still improving more.  My charge off as percent of interest is sub 35%. Though I did have a slight uptick in the 31 day + late count.

Yeah, I thought maybe things were getting better for me, but alas... On the other hand, my losses in dollar terms are trivial and I'm really glad for that. Actually, I would take the status quo as is until my portfolio runs off if things don't get worse. Money is money, but my investment is almost down to profits made in the early years. I don't EVER subscribe to the "playing with house money" theory since every dollar is just as real as every other dollar. No one should do that! If I could walk away today with what I have I'd be a very happy camper. Meanwhile I've bought my last note and my fate out of my hands lest I resort to another round of Folio selling which I do not anticipate.

michael49

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Re: Worst Month Yet
« Reply #475 on: August 05, 2017, 08:51:08 AM »
I stopped re-investing months ago in my main LC acct (except for the small amount in my IRA acct).  I'm not selling on folio, I'm just letting things naturally wind down  I haven't had a positive month in quite a while. Thankfully, I'm only losing a small amount each month, but still, its sad to see. :(

dr.everett

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Re: Worst Month Yet
« Reply #476 on: August 05, 2017, 06:40:27 PM »
Same here. Taxable account is halfway liquidated- When I get a bit more sold off, the focus will become the IRA account. I want to take what I've learned liquidating my Taxable account and apply it to the IRA so I can get it disposed of quickly and get the money back into a money making mode.

Lovinglifestyle

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Re: Worst Month Yet
« Reply #477 on: August 05, 2017, 07:39:42 PM »
This was my first ever negative month, after taxes and charge offs.  I brought it on myself by deliberately changing my standards for the Dec. 2016 portfolio.

Rob L

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Re: Worst Month Yet
« Reply #478 on: September 04, 2017, 03:12:22 PM »
Sadly no improvement and another losing month.

There have been some discussions in other threads about whether chargeoffs are simply getting back to their pre-crisis status and how bad could things get when the next recession comes along. Take a look at the "NET ANNUALIZED RETURN BY VINTAGE" interactive chart at: https://www.lendingclub.com/info/demand-and-credit-profile.action. Current NAR performance for many grades and terms is at or below 2008 and/or 2009 levels. For example C grade, 36 month, 2015 vintage at 20 months on book are the lowest in history. The 2016 vintage curve for same is at the same level as the 2015 vintage curve at 8 MOB. There's some really interesting data here. Its reinforced my view that the current and seemingly persistent depressed NAR levels are the result of the combination of the lowering of interest rates and the expansion of chargeoffs. The expansion of chargeoffs is a result of both consumer behavior and lowered underwriting criteria. I'm not seeing any turnarounds and these problems won't fix themselves.







SeanMCA

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Re: Worst Month Yet
« Reply #479 on: October 03, 2017, 06:23:22 PM »
Got my Sept statement. I still have a net loss YTD. Kind of sucks.
I'm a merchant cash advance veteran exploring the p2p lending waters.