Author Topic: Worst Month Yet  (Read 160469 times)

SeattleSun

  • Full Member
  • ***
  • Posts: 217
    • View Profile
Re: Worst Month Yet
« Reply #60 on: February 17, 2016, 12:42:05 AM »

Just got this e-mail from Prosper.  Sorry the tables in the e-mail wouldn't copy.  Maybe somebody else can post them?

QUOTE
Effective today, Prosper has increased its estimated loss rates and the price charged for risk on the loans originated through the platform. We believe this move ensures that our borrower payment dependent note and whole loan products remain competitive for our investors in the current turbulent market environment that we have witnessed since the beginning of 2016. Since August of 2015, Prosper has been proactively raising the estimated loss rates and the price for risk in the loan products originated through the platform. We believe that these proactive moves will ensure that we continue to offer superior products to our investors.

Below, please find the new pricing table and the estimated portfolio impact of the changes (changes are based on a simulation of the new policies on January booked loans and actual portfolio composition will vary depending on how new applicants respond to offers and the relative marketing mix going forward vs. January):

Estimated Aggregate Impact to Prosper Portfolio of Loss and Price Changes:
Sorry Table Wouldn't Copy

Proposed Pricing Modifications for the Week of 2‌/15:
Sorry Table Wouldn't Copy
UNQUOTE
« Last Edit: February 17, 2016, 01:42:10 AM by SeattleSun »

SeattleSun

  • Full Member
  • ***
  • Posts: 217
    • View Profile
Re: Worst Month Yet
« Reply #61 on: February 17, 2016, 12:57:25 AM »
The data below is for both myself and my daughter who both have Prosper accounts and use similar "conservative" loan selection criteria. 

Two of which are "Debt Consolation Only" and to "never lend to anyone who has ever had a delinquency". 

I have 50% B's, 25% A's and 25% C's.  She has about equal number of B's and C's. 

I have a charge off "spike" in Nov, Dec and Jan 16 and she doesn't?

Edit: We both have the same 13 month average charge off as % of Interest of 44%.



Daughter   Charge Off       Dad      Charge Off
       as % of Interest         as % of Interest
Jan '16      45%         Jan '16   74%
Dec '15      58%         Dec '15   83%
Nov         63%         Nov      86%
Oct         60%         Oct      43%
Sept         72%         Sept      26%
Aug         64%         Aug      63%
July         26%         July      9%
June         29%         June      19%
May         53%         May      44%
Apr         28%         Apr      19%
Mar         50%         Mar      74%
Feb         14%         Feb      11%
Jan '15      20%         Jan '15   24%
Ave         44%               44%
« Last Edit: February 17, 2016, 01:54:47 AM by SeattleSun »

lascott

  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 1410
    • View Profile
    • Appreciate my post and want to try LendingRobot? URL below
Re: Worst Month Yet
« Reply #62 on: February 17, 2016, 01:22:58 AM »
Not sure of how many notes you have but it appears random. There are months were hers is higher.
Oddly it evens out with 44% (average).

Re: I have 50% B's, 25% A's and 25% C's.  She has about equal number of B's and C's.
Given you both have about 50% Bs ... perhaps you have more C's defaulting but less A's.  Still this is too general just to go on grades.

Reformated with "code" tag and courier font
(code)
Code: [Select]
Daughter   Charge Off       Dad      Charge Off
           as % of Interest          as % of Interest
Jan '16     45%             Jan '16  74%
Dec '15     58%             Dec '15  83%
Nov         63%             Nov      86%
Oct         60%             Oct      43%
Sep         72%             Sep      26%
Aug         64%             Aug      63%
Jul         26%             Jul       9%
Jun         29%             Jun      19%
May         53%             May      44%
Apr         28%             Apr      19%
Mar         50%             Mar      74%
Feb         14%             Feb      11%
Jan '15     20%             Jan '15  24%
Sum         44%                      44%

(font=courier)
Daughter   Charge Off       Dad      Charge Off
           as % of Interest          as % of Interest
Jan '16     45%             Jan '16  74%
Dec '15     58%             Dec '15  83%
Nov         63%             Nov      86%
Oct         60%             Oct      43%
Sep         72%             Sep      26%
Aug         64%             Aug      63%
Jul         26%             Jul       9%
Jun         29%             Jun      19%
May         53%             May      44%
Apr         28%             Apr      19%
Mar         50%             Mar      74%
Feb         14%             Feb      11%
Jan '15     20%             Jan '15  24%
Sum         44%                      44%
« Last Edit: February 17, 2016, 02:22:36 AM by lascott »
Tools I use: (main) BlueVestment: https://www.bluevestment.com/app/pricing + https://www.interestradar.com/ , (others) Lending Robot referral link: https://www.lendingrobot.com/ref/scott473/  & Peercube referral code: DFVA9Y

SeattleSun

  • Full Member
  • ***
  • Posts: 217
    • View Profile
Re: Worst Month Yet
« Reply #63 on: February 17, 2016, 01:46:12 AM »
Thanks lascott!

I was just going to ask for help with that post formatting.

Could you please explain what the "code tag" is?

Is it one of those small buttons above?

TIA
« Last Edit: February 17, 2016, 01:56:10 AM by SeattleSun »

Fred93

  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 2129
    • View Profile
Re: Worst Month Yet
« Reply #64 on: February 17, 2016, 01:53:34 AM »
Similar to what I observed in my account.  The number bounces all around, but doesn't fit the "worst month yet - things are going to hell" hypothesis.

lascott

  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 1410
    • View Profile
    • Appreciate my post and want to try LendingRobot? URL below
Re: Worst Month Yet
« Reply #65 on: February 17, 2016, 02:13:15 AM »
Could you please explain what the "code tag" is?
Is it one of those small buttons above?

If you quote my post you can just look to see the contents of it and see the code and courier font tags. Look for square brackets. Both force monospace spacing so each character takes up the same space. i vs m as an example. Code (#) is meant for "software languages" to show proper indentation, as an example.
Image: http://i.imgur.com/CYkElAA.png
Tools I use: (main) BlueVestment: https://www.bluevestment.com/app/pricing + https://www.interestradar.com/ , (others) Lending Robot referral link: https://www.lendingrobot.com/ref/scott473/  & Peercube referral code: DFVA9Y

SeattleSun

  • Full Member
  • ***
  • Posts: 217
    • View Profile
Re: Worst Month Yet
« Reply #66 on: February 17, 2016, 12:15:27 PM »
Not sure of how many notes you have but it appears random.
There are months were hers is higher.
Oddly it evens out with 44% (average).

Re: I have 50% B's, 25% A's and 25% C's.  She has about equal number of B's and C's.
Given you both have about 50% Bs ... perhaps you have more C's defaulting but less A's.  Still this is too general just to go on grades.

I have 1287 active loans out of a total of 2182 total loans.  My "seasoned return" is 8.41%

My daughter has 1050 active loans out of a total of 1627 total loans.  Her "seasoned return" is 10.15%.

Our normal "bet size" is $100 and keeping fully invested manually is challenging.  Yes I have done all those loans by hand over the last 5 years.

(She likes to point out her return is higher than mine)


LA Scott - And thanks for help with the "code".  The last code I wrote was in Fortran and it was on punch cards.  LOL

« Last Edit: February 17, 2016, 02:54:24 PM by SeattleSun »

lascott

  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 1410
    • View Profile
    • Appreciate my post and want to try LendingRobot? URL below
Re: Worst Month Yet
« Reply #67 on: February 17, 2016, 03:24:56 PM »
Not sure of how many notes you have but it appears random.
There are months were hers is higher.
Oddly it evens out with 44% (average).

Re: I have 50% B's, 25% A's and 25% C's.  She has about equal number of B's and C's.
Given you both have about 50% Bs ... perhaps you have more C's defaulting but less A's.  Still this is too general just to go on grades.
I have 1287 active loans out of a total of 2182 total loans.  My "seasoned return" is 8.41%
My daughter has 1050 active loans out of a total of 1627 total loans.  Her "seasoned return" is 10.15%.
Our normal "bet size" is $100 and keeping fully invested manually is challenging.  Yes I have done all those loans by hand over the last 5 years.
(She likes to point out her return is higher than mine)
LA Scott - And thanks for help with the "code".  The last code I wrote was in Fortran and it was on punch cards.  LOL
I think it is great that you both have the common interest and she likes being a little ahead of dad. Good stuff.
You have quite a few notes for a great diversification.  Have you considered using LendingRobot and doing custom rules (filters) similar to what you like? You can also use their "expected return" rule which is like their "credit model" to help you pick notes and then add on some other criteria that you feel strongly about. Often "credit models" take into account a lot of relationships between criteria (i.e. if public records > 0 but occured a long time ago then still "ok"). You can use my referral link in my signature line (extra $5K for each of us of investing) or simple go directly to their site. No big deal either way to me. (I was a computer operator as a college job using punch cards ;) )
« Last Edit: February 17, 2016, 06:20:13 PM by lascott »
Tools I use: (main) BlueVestment: https://www.bluevestment.com/app/pricing + https://www.interestradar.com/ , (others) Lending Robot referral link: https://www.lendingrobot.com/ref/scott473/  & Peercube referral code: DFVA9Y

SeattleSun

  • Full Member
  • ***
  • Posts: 217
    • View Profile
Re: Worst Month Yet
« Reply #68 on: February 17, 2016, 08:15:44 PM »
F & G grade charge offs seems to have taken off since May this year. Overall 2015 charge-offs are within the median +/- 95% CI for past 8 years on annual basis. The charge offs bottomed out in 2012 and have been rising since then. We are back to 2010 level in 2015.

January, March, October and December tend to be outside median +/- 95% CI on monthly basis.



http://www.lendacademy.com/forum/index.php?topic=3551.msg31436#msg31436


AnilG,

Great chart, thanks!

Can you post similar chart for PROSPER? 

TIA

SeattleSun
« Last Edit: February 17, 2016, 08:19:38 PM by SeattleSun »

SeattleSun

  • Full Member
  • ***
  • Posts: 217
    • View Profile
Re: Worst Month Yet
« Reply #69 on: February 17, 2016, 08:42:59 PM »

=================================================================================================
I think it is great that you both have the common interest and she likes being a little ahead of dad. Good stuff.

You have quite a few notes for a great diversification.  Have you considered using LendingRobot and doing custom rules (filters) similar to what you like? You can also use their "expected return" rule which is like their "credit model" to help you pick notes and then add on some other criteria that you feel strongly about. Often "credit models" take into account a lot of relationships between criteria (i.e. if public records > 0 but occured a long time ago then still "ok"). You can use my referral link in my signature line (extra $5K for each of us of investing) or simple go directly to their site. No big deal either way to me. (I was a computer operator as a college job using punch cards ;) )
[/quote]

=================================================================================================

LA Scott,


First, the only P2P accounts my family has are Prosper.  I was watching them for a few years and after Prosper 1.0 crashed and burned and after the Great Recession I worked up the nerve to open an account in the fall of 2012.  The Fed's ZIRP was a big motivator.  In hind sight I might have been better off with Lending Club but it is what it is.

I was very excited when Bryce Mason showed up with P2P in 2013(?) but it took forever for him to get around to Prosper and I lost interest.  I recently noted he has moved on.

Lately I  have been encouraged by the consolidation to only FOUR third party tools space for retail investors.  I like to let "natural selection" work and let the "market" reduce my number of options.  Assuming the strong survive.

NSR Invest
LendingRobot
BlueVestment
PeerCube

http://www.lendacademy.com/the-state-of-the-retail-investor-in-p2p-lending/

Recently I have looked at Lending Robot and went so far in their registration process to get on their "mailing list".  I was thinking of opening one of their small accounts (Less $5k) with the intent of running a trial.

Since Lending Robot is here in the Emerald City I also plotted their offices on Google Maps with the intention of making an unannounced visit when I was in the neighborhood.

I remember  :)   when doing DD on Prosper trying to penetrate their facility in SFran only to be rebuffed.  But I did manage to ambush a woman employee in the elevator and got lots of good info.  LOL

Last week I did click on all the links in your signature line and looked around.

I was considering starting a sting here with the intent of trying to collect the pros and cons of each of the remaining four providers.   Does anyone know if that thread already exists?  I have never seen it.

SeattleSun
« Last Edit: February 18, 2016, 03:33:54 PM by SeattleSun »

BruiserB

  • Sr. Member
  • ****
  • Posts: 417
    • View Profile
Re: Worst Month Yet
« Reply #70 on: February 18, 2016, 11:46:02 AM »
I calculate XIRR annually and YTD for current years.  Last year was my lowest year ever and YTD this year is lower than my last year's full year.


hzhou9

  • Newbie
  • *
  • Posts: 35
    • View Profile
    • Email
Re: Worst Month Yet
« Reply #71 on: February 18, 2016, 01:56:33 PM »
I calculate XIRR annually and YTD for current years.  Last year was my lowest year ever and YTD this year is lower than my last year's full year.

8.81% still looks good, and much better than S&P.

But BruiserB, I noticed that you deliberately said "lower than my last year's full year" and thus a bit confused - do you imply that the number will go down from now (Feb) to Dec? And how did you calculate the new investment when getting these numbers?

lascott

  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 1410
    • View Profile
    • Appreciate my post and want to try LendingRobot? URL below
Re: Worst Month Yet
« Reply #72 on: February 18, 2016, 05:17:28 PM »
I was considering starting a sting here with the intent of trying to collect the pros and cons of each of the remaining four providers.   Does anyone know if that thread already exists?  I have never seen it.
Some comparisons in this post/thread. http://www.lendacademy.com/forum/index.php?topic=3337.msg29876#msg29876

You should start a new thread about this in the "Investor - LC" sub thread ( here: http://www.lendacademy.com/forum/index.php?board=4.0 ) because we have taken this one off track.

Feel free to PM me.
Tools I use: (main) BlueVestment: https://www.bluevestment.com/app/pricing + https://www.interestradar.com/ , (others) Lending Robot referral link: https://www.lendingrobot.com/ref/scott473/  & Peercube referral code: DFVA9Y

BruiserB

  • Sr. Member
  • ****
  • Posts: 417
    • View Profile
Worst Month Yet
« Reply #73 on: February 19, 2016, 09:54:51 PM »
I calculate XIRR annually and YTD for current years.  Last year was my lowest year ever and YTD this year is lower than my last year's full year.

8.81% still looks good, and much better than S&P.

But BruiserB, I noticed that you deliberately said "lower than my last year's full year" and thus a bit confused - do you imply that the number will go down from now (Feb) to Dec? And how did you calculate the new investment when getting these numbers?

I'm still satisfied, but am seeing lower performance. I have gotten pretty used to consistent 10-12% returns. Just was remarking that 8.81% so far to date this year is less than the 9.75% from last year. I'm hoping it doesn't keep dropping.

My calculations are on the overall return of my account. I track all deposits and withdrawals over time and use the current value of the account. I use the XIRR Excel function to calculate overall return.  I calculate my total return over the history of my account and each year's return by running the calculation from 1/1 to 12/31 each year.

I'm definitely seeing more defaults than in the past. Defaults used to be about 1/3 of my interest earned...now pushing closer to 1/2.  Contemplating moving to a more conservative strategy as I'm getting more defaults than I have capital gains to offset them with.

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
« Last Edit: February 19, 2016, 09:59:25 PM by BruiserB »

SeattleSun

  • Full Member
  • ***
  • Posts: 217
    • View Profile
Re: Worst Month Yet
« Reply #74 on: February 22, 2016, 08:18:44 PM »

Lending Club and Prosper Interest Rates, Loss Curves and Loan Performance

With recent interest rate changes and economic uncertainty, we look at the latest Lending Club and Prosper loss curves.

FEBRUARY 22, 2016
BY RYAN LICHTENWALD


http://www.lendacademy.com/lending-club-and-prosper-interest-rates-loss-curves-and-loan-performance/