Author Topic: Worst Month Yet  (Read 193596 times)

hzhou9

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Re: Worst Month Yet
« Reply #120 on: May 16, 2016, 09:28:22 PM »
I thought the problem went away but I noticed that i just had 8 notes all go into grace in one day.  That used to be my whole monthly amount.  I don't know what is going on here.

Which grade?

investor88

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Re: Worst Month Yet
« Reply #121 on: May 19, 2016, 10:30:14 PM »
Did this subject go away due to all the other news?

Still here; posting chart once a month. Mine has stabilized (see above).

Hi Rob,
Are you still investing in new notes?
How much are you investing each month as a percentage of your total portfolio?
And are you investing in 36 month or 60 month loans?

Rob L

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Re: Worst Month Yet
« Reply #122 on: May 19, 2016, 11:35:52 PM »
Did this subject go away due to all the other news?

Still here; posting chart once a month. Mine has stabilized (see above).

Hi Rob,
Are you still investing in new notes?
How much are you investing each month as a percentage of your total portfolio?
And are you investing in 36 month or 60 month loans?

No, I turned off my auto-invest software in the am on Monday 5/9. Northing's yet happened make me revisit this decision.
All my notes have always been 36 month term.
I am continuing to reinvest in Prosper notes however.

investor88

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Re: Worst Month Yet
« Reply #123 on: May 26, 2016, 02:09:07 PM »
Hi Rob,
6 months ago when you originally posted, i suggested that Lending Club D and E notes were not good investments.  I thought LC over-inflated the expected returns on these notes on the ‘view order’ page last year.
I stopped investing 18 months ago and for the past 6 months my charge offs continue to be about 100% of my interest with some months over 100%.   My ANAR was 8% 6 months ago and is now at 7% and continues to go lower.  there is some very scary snaking downward in the ‘Understanding Your Returns’ chart that suggests more recent notes might be performing much worse than notes from a couple years ago.
Thanks for keeping this thread updated and it will be interesting to see what your results are now that you stopped buying new notes.  Can you include the ‘weighted average age of your portfolio’ when you next post.

Rob L

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Re: Worst Month Yet
« Reply #124 on: May 26, 2016, 07:06:03 PM »
I'll post whatever happens. My weighted average is Interest rate 17.34% and ANAR is at 9.40%.
Weighted average age is 20.4 months so it's getting a bit long in the tooth.

balto21

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Re: Worst Month Yet
« Reply #125 on: June 03, 2016, 03:46:25 PM »
In 2015, I was at 27% Charge off as Interest. This year, I am at 65%. With average age of 15.8 months and still reinvesting, this is a very interesting way to look at the account.

My ANAR is still at 11% but based on these numbers, that will probably change in the near future. The thought of, am I skewing my own returns because I keep on reinvesting popped back into my head again. Hmm...



Lovinglifestyle

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Re: Worst Month Yet
« Reply #126 on: June 03, 2016, 06:16:54 PM »
My May charge offs as % of interest were 23.5%.  Were it not for proactive selling on Folio that would have been higher.  The last three months of Folio sales have been net positive.

My concern now is that proactive selling requires deeper discounts, which may be counterproductive. 

Second concern is new Graces which are occurring now, after my "pruning" phase, recover more often than before-- so I've stopped automatically selling them.  This means more monitoring work. 

I use PeerCube's "Alerts" and "Notes at Risk" features to help locate potential problems.  Thanks, Anil!


AnilG

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Re: Worst Month Yet
« Reply #127 on: June 03, 2016, 07:55:49 PM »
Thanks for using PeerCube and providing feedback and suggestions for improvement. :)

Can you send me an email with your criteria for selling based on Alerts and Notes at Risk? I am trying to figure out if it could possibly be automated so that you don't even need to review alerts and notes at risk and then manually sell notes.

BTW, have you checked out Portfolio Statistics pages yet? These are new. I am planning to add the changes in stats with time for user portfolio, as PeerCube keeps history of your portfolio. We just haven't figured out yet how to do it fast enough to not let subscribers wait too long.

My May charge offs as % of interest were 23.5%.  Were it not for proactive selling on Folio that would have been higher.  The last three months of Folio sales have been net positive.

My concern now is that proactive selling requires deeper discounts, which may be counterproductive. 

Second concern is new Graces which are occurring now, after my "pruning" phase, recover more often than before-- so I've stopped automatically selling them.  This means more monitoring work. 

I use PeerCube's "Alerts" and "Notes at Risk" features to help locate potential problems.  Thanks, Anil!
---
Anil Gupta
PeerCube Thoughts blog https://www.peercube.com/blog
PeerCube https://www.peercube.com

Rob L

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Re: Worst Month Yet
« Reply #128 on: June 03, 2016, 08:59:44 PM »
Here's my July May charge offs as a percent of interest received. The storm seems to have passed for now.
I have begun selling on Folio but the $ amount was very small. All notes sold were young and could have not yet charged off.
However, since I stopped purchasing notes on 5/9/16 my cash is at its highest level since March 2014.



« Last Edit: June 05, 2016, 09:41:24 PM by Rob L »

Lovinglifestyle

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Re: Worst Month Yet
« Reply #129 on: June 03, 2016, 09:43:06 PM »
Coincidentally, I just found that statistics page about an hour ago, before reading your post!  I was trying out the Primary and Sales account choices there, trying to make heads out of tails for where the whole set of one of my portfolio's original notes disappeared to.  LC just shows what's left, with no way to look up what was sold.  I got excited when I saw Fico trends with a Sell button for a particular portfolio!

Yes, I'll send an email about criteria.  Not so sure I have anything coherent to communicate, but I'll try. 

Thanks for using PeerCube and providing feedback and suggestions for improvement. :)

Can you send me an email with your criteria for selling based on Alerts and Notes at Risk? I am trying to figure out if it could possibly be automated so that you don't even need to review alerts and notes at risk and then manually sell notes.

BTW, have you checked out Portfolio Statistics pages yet? These are new. I am planning to add the changes in stats with time for user portfolio, as PeerCube keeps history of your portfolio. We just haven't figured out yet how to do it fast enough to not let subscribers wait too long.

My May charge offs as % of interest were 23.5%.  Were it not for proactive selling on Folio that would have been higher.  The last three months of Folio sales have been net positive.

My concern now is that proactive selling requires deeper discounts, which may be counterproductive. 

Second concern is new Graces which are occurring now, after my "pruning" phase, recover more often than before-- so I've stopped automatically selling them.  This means more monitoring work. 

I use PeerCube's "Alerts" and "Notes at Risk" features to help locate potential problems.  Thanks, Anil!

jz451

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Re: Worst Month Yet
« Reply #130 on: June 04, 2016, 12:02:49 AM »
Surprisingly, but not statistically significant yet after starting my account 2 1/3 months ago w/ 53 notes and a E 9%, F 30%, G 60% distribution w/ seasoned notes from Folio I have only had one note go into grace period, which went back to current after two weeks. This should not even be possible if roughly 18% of F-G notes are charged off.

Rob L

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Re: Worst Month Yet
« Reply #131 on: June 04, 2016, 09:41:03 AM »
My May charge offs as % of interest were 23.5%.  Were it not for proactive selling on Folio that would have been higher.  The last three months of Folio sales have been net positive.

My concern now is that proactive selling requires deeper discounts, which may be counterproductive. 

Second concern is new Graces which are occurring now, after my "pruning" phase, recover more often than before-- so I've stopped automatically selling them.  This means more monitoring work. 

I use PeerCube's "Alerts" and "Notes at Risk" features to help locate potential problems.  Thanks, Anil!

Right now I'm coming at it from the other end of the spectrum and concentrating on sale of performing loans. My plan is liquidation and performing loans are 96% of my account total. Also knowing how to price non-performers appears to me to be a much more difficult problem. So, as my liquidation proceeds I'll have fewer and fewer performing loans and an increasing number of non-performers. Seems natural that there will come a time when my interest / charge offs is well above 100%. We'll watch as it happens.

SeattleSun

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Re: Worst Month Yet
« Reply #132 on: June 07, 2016, 01:15:31 AM »
.
May charge offs were 50% and the long run remained 44%.

Prosper only lender since 2012 with 1300 active loans.

lascott

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Re: Worst Month Yet
« Reply #133 on: June 07, 2016, 11:32:54 AM »
May

Taxable


ROTH
Tools I use: (main) BlueVestment: https://www.bluevestment.com/app/pricing + https://www.interestradar.com/ , (others) Lending Robot referral link: https://www.lendingrobot.com/ref/scott473/  & Peercube referral code: DFVA9Y

Rob L

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Re: Worst Month Yet
« Reply #134 on: July 03, 2016, 11:57:43 AM »
Here's the update for June; a very good month.
I stopped all purchasing on 5/9 so no investments occurred this month. My Folio selling has been only a small percentage of my portfolio value and had almost no effect on the graph shown. Charge-offs as a percent of Principal Invested (another graph I maintain) ticked up a bit as would be expected. That will get worse. Cash available as a percent of portfolio value is now about 16%.

Almost forgot: ANAR 8.85%, Weighted Average Interest Rate 17.33%, Weighted Average Age of Portfolio 21.8 months.

« Last Edit: July 03, 2016, 12:04:39 PM by Rob L »