Author Topic: Worst Month Yet  (Read 254145 times)

Fred93

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Re: Worst Month Yet
« Reply #255 on: November 03, 2016, 07:47:29 PM »
Update for my account.  Movin' on up.

Rob L

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Re: Worst Month Yet
« Reply #256 on: November 03, 2016, 09:31:04 PM »
Update for my account.  Movin' on up.

You and the Jefferson's.

fliphusker

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Re: Worst Month Yet
« Reply #257 on: November 04, 2016, 01:17:19 AM »
My first 2 chargeoffs so guess that would qualify for the worst month yet.  4 more warming up in the bullpen so they will not get lonely.  Frustrated with some of my FOLIO notes that were perfectly fine right up until I bought them now IGP.  If I was more like Art Bell would say that something is up. 

rawraw

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Worst Month Yet
« Reply #258 on: November 04, 2016, 08:01:25 AM »
Do the monthly statement reflect charge offs correctly for purchased notes? Meaning reflecting the investment not principal amount?

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anabio

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Re: Worst Month Yet
« Reply #259 on: November 09, 2016, 11:47:36 PM »
...
I can't see how the chewing gum/bailing wire/duct tape that has been going on since 2008 can hold the finger in the dike much longer. There will either be a recession or rampant inflation as the government tries to print it's way out of the mess it has created.
...

I don't know if I'll still be watching this board in a year; most of my loans will be gone by next May...but if I am I will be the first to admit I was wrong if a recession did not come...but I will be among the first to say "I told you  so" if it does.
I might be admitting that I was wrong about the recession coming. After Trump's speech last night it seems that a WPA program (the likes of which has not been seen since the 1930's) is on it's way. If such a WPA project is in play I think it will keep the recession away (at least for the next few years).

UNFORTUNATELY I am believing the second half of my prediction is  now in play. There is no way the government can pay for such a program except by printing money. Printing money will mean a huge increase in interest rates (just who will accept the current measly 2% to purchase 3 to 6 trillion dollars of additional US BONDS...especially considering how much the US already is in debt for... and don't forget they will also need to purchase bonds to start paying back the trillions of IOU's social security has on its book now that Social Security is taking in less money than it is paying out). I'm afraid Greece will have nothing on us at that point in time.

I am sure most of you realize what that means...large increases in interest rates so the 3 to 5 year loans you are funding now which seem to be making enough interest for you right now may not compare very well to what you could make with your money elsewhere in a year or so; and you can't sell on Folio because the notes will have lost a huge part of their principal because of the higher interest rates new notes will have.

I remember getting 11.5% for a one year cd circa 1981 from a local savings and loan...at which time my mortgage for my old house was 12% (as opposed to 3.125% now).

but then... maybe you shouldn't care because at least you will not be losing money since such a WPA project hopefully would keep people working and maybe not  defaulting on their loans.

of course that then starts the clock ticking on just what will happen 4-5 years from now...the piper must be paid eventually...
As Will Rogers stated: : I'm not as concerned about the return on my money as I am the return of my money

rawraw

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Re: Worst Month Yet
« Reply #260 on: November 13, 2016, 04:51:01 AM »
This month I'm back to breakeven.  Trending in the right direction!

dr.everett

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Re: Worst Month Yet
« Reply #261 on: November 17, 2016, 02:55:52 PM »
So I thought I'd chime in- been following this thread with keen interest.

I have 2 accounts- one IRA and one Taxable. My IRA account was my first LC account, and the Taxable one followed. I made the mistakes on the IRA just due to it being the first account, and having less money to put into the Taxable account during the times that everyone suspects lesser quality loans were available.

I'm dealing with two issues right now in both accounts:

1. FICO Drops- I have ~800-1300 FICO Down notes in each account- previously didn't have a good sell strategy for when these occurred other than manual processing. And for my size accounts (6-7K active notes in each account), this was not scalable. I now have an automated approach to doing this with LR- it's not great, but it works. I'm selling these notes for an average discount of around 5-7%. I'll still have several months of selling to go before they are all sold, but it's a work in progress. Selling the FICO drops should address a large part of my losses going forward.

2. Late notes in general- My FICO issues when scores dropped enough turned into my late notes- used to have a good way of handling these, but the tool I used stopped working well. (IR) That led to my change of tools to LR and having to rethink/adapt my strategy based on the limitations of LR- and there are a lot. I think I'm close to where I was before- I now see a fair number of my late notes selling prior to the dreaded 90% discount right before they are charged off.

With all of that said- my IRA account looks like it'll be even for the year, and my Taxable account might make a small return. Not looking forward to seeing what the losses are at tax time, I'm sure that will be depressing.

For those looking to compare- my size accounts typically have ~250-350 notes in varying stages of lateness each month. I'm typically seeing $1500-2K in chargeoffs a month. I am heavily biased towards the D-G notes, only buying seasoned (Buying the new notes is what got me in trouble), and trying to sell good notes for a markup to offset the losses. (Surprisingly I sell quite a few notes at 8-10% markup, just not enough yet...)

dmcnic

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Re: Worst Month Yet
« Reply #262 on: November 17, 2016, 08:16:13 PM »
You actually get sales with a markup? That's amazing, but I always have to remember that not everyone is like me and looking for a bargain.

fliphusker

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Re: Worst Month Yet
« Reply #263 on: November 17, 2016, 11:11:21 PM »
I second this as well.  Guess people are ok with paying a premium for their certain YTM on notes. 
You actually get sales with a markup? That's amazing, but I always have to remember that not everyone is like me and looking for a bargain.

jz451

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Re: Worst Month Yet
« Reply #264 on: November 17, 2016, 11:30:46 PM »
I'm one of those who early on realized that buying at a premium is not that big of a deal when I'm mainly buying E-G notes. I've limited it to 2.5%.
I second this as well.  Guess people are ok with paying a premium for their certain YTM on notes. 


dr.everett

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Re: Worst Month Yet
« Reply #265 on: November 18, 2016, 12:26:06 AM »
You actually get sales with a markup? That's amazing, but I always have to remember that not everyone is like me and looking for a bargain.

I'm the same way- I don't buy anything more than 3%, and that's actually rare. I find many of the notes I want at discount, sometimes significantly discounted.
My purchasing spread is usually -3% to around 2%, with most being at 0-1%

At the risk of sounding bad, when people get scared and dump their notes, I can't buy them fast enough.

As much as I would rather not sell the notes, if someone is willing to pay 9-10% for them, I'll sell them and continue buying others.

jz451

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Re: Worst Month Yet
« Reply #266 on: November 18, 2016, 11:36:40 AM »
I just checked what my disocunt/premium for the notes I bought and the min is -2% and max is 4%, soon to be 5.5%, and a median of 1.25%. Not bad I would say.


I'm the same way- I don't buy anything more than 3%, and that's actually rare. I find many of the notes I want at discount, sometimes significantly discounted.
My purchasing spread is usually -3% to around 2%, with most being at 0-1%

At the risk of sounding bad, when people get scared and dump their notes, I can't buy them fast enough.

As much as I would rather not sell the notes, if someone is willing to pay 9-10% for them, I'll sell them and continue buying others.

fliphusker

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Re: Worst Month Yet
« Reply #267 on: November 18, 2016, 03:31:45 PM »
How did you check that?
I just checked what my disocunt/premium for the notes I bought and the min is -2% and max is 4%, soon to be 5.5%, and a median of 1.25%. Not bad I would say.


I'm the same way- I don't buy anything more than 3%, and that's actually rare. I find many of the notes I want at discount, sometimes significantly discounted.
My purchasing spread is usually -3% to around 2%, with most being at 0-1%

At the risk of sounding bad, when people get scared and dump their notes, I can't buy them fast enough.

As much as I would rather not sell the notes, if someone is willing to pay 9-10% for them, I'll sell them and continue buying others.

jz451

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Re: Worst Month Yet
« Reply #268 on: November 18, 2016, 06:03:48 PM »
I have a spreadsheet will different info of each note bought/sold for tax purposes.

How did you check that?
I just checked what my disocunt/premium for the notes I bought and the min is -2% and max is 4%, soon to be 5.5%, and a median of 1.25%. Not bad I would say.


I'm the same way- I don't buy anything more than 3%, and that's actually rare. I find many of the notes I want at discount, sometimes significantly discounted.
My purchasing spread is usually -3% to around 2%, with most being at 0-1%

At the risk of sounding bad, when people get scared and dump their notes, I can't buy them fast enough.

As much as I would rather not sell the notes, if someone is willing to pay 9-10% for them, I'll sell them and continue buying others.

dmcnic

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Re: Worst Month Yet
« Reply #269 on: November 19, 2016, 01:01:47 AM »
At the risk of sounding bad, when people get scared and dump their notes, I can't buy them fast enough.

That doesn't sound bad; that sounds prudent. I've dropped a few investment newsletters when they sell a stock after it crashes. Seems like that is the time to be buying. If people are selling, I'm like Rodney Dangerfield on the golf course, "Buy! Buy!"