Author Topic: Worst Month Yet  (Read 186338 times)

Rob L

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Re: Worst Month Yet
« Reply #495 on: October 16, 2017, 05:19:25 PM »
They definitely lowered standards and lowered rates after going public to try and increase revenue, but LC has been hurting as well (just look at their profits, stock price, etc.). I think the big difference is just the increased competition in the field. Before it was just LC and prosper. Now Goldman Sachs, American Express, Discover financial, Sofi, Earnest, Bestegg, etc. are all in the same field. There is just so much competition. As a result, both LC stockholders and LC investors are hurting. The only people who are benefiting from all of this are lenders (especially the ones who just take their $40,000 and run away, lol).

Pretty sure you meant borrowers rather than lenders above (bold).
However, I'm a lender and am running away as fast as I reasonably can.  :)

Meanwhile I haven't seen ANY posts by individual investors that are bullish on (or happy with) LC notes. Some say the time to buy is when everyone else is selling, so now is the time, but that's about it. There's gotta be a statistical outlier out there that's actually very happy with their LC returns. Care to chime in??

PennySaved

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Re: Worst Month Yet
« Reply #496 on: October 16, 2017, 11:15:39 PM »
Probably not worth it to pay a $100 annual fee plus $50 fee if one wants to transfer the money to my Vanguard IRA.  My net recovery amount for Sept 2017 was about $10.
Vanguard charges $50 to transfer money into your IRA account?
I'm surprised. Don't think Fidelity charges any fees to transfer money in or out of an IRA (except if you select transfer by wire). At least I don't remember paying any.
Vanguard did not charge me a fee.  It was SDIRA that charged me a $50 transaction fee to transfer cash from my SDIRA Roth IRA cash account to my Vanguard Roth IRA.  I think it is listed as the $50 per asset fee (for Roth conversion or recharacterization) listed on SDIRA's IRA fee schedule. 

Also, SDIRA is now STRATA Trust Company.  Website is now https://www.stratatrust.com

Also the account termination fee for the self-directed IRA is $250.  That is another hit I will have to take to close things out once all my IRA notes are paid back or sold.

anabio

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Re: Worst Month Yet
« Reply #497 on: October 17, 2017, 09:09:31 AM »
I'm sure this has been addressed, but is anyone else flaming mad over LC going public, basically creating a legal mandate for increasing their own profit that trumps profit or even any protection for the people actually taking the risk (us)?  In a nutshell, now they Have to prioritize their own profit by law, and whether they get it from the lenders or the borrowers is irrelevant.  As we can see. 

In the past I stated that I felt LC going public turned out to be a bad idea for precisely this reason. That was a BIG turnaround for me because I watched LC for a long time, waiting for it to go public before investing. I figured when it went public it would be more stable. Well....phooey on me...
As Will Rogers stated: : I'm not as concerned about the return on my money as I am the return of my money

Rob L

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Re: Worst Month Yet
« Reply #498 on: October 17, 2017, 08:00:06 PM »
Probably not worth it to pay a $100 annual fee plus $50 fee if one wants to transfer the money to my Vanguard IRA.  My net recovery amount for Sept 2017 was about $10.
Vanguard charges $50 to transfer money into your IRA account?
I'm surprised. Don't think Fidelity charges any fees to transfer money in or out of an IRA (except if you select transfer by wire). At least I don't remember paying any.
Vanguard did not charge me a fee.  It was SDIRA that charged me a $50 transaction fee to transfer cash from my SDIRA Roth IRA cash account to my Vanguard Roth IRA.  I think it is listed as the $50 per asset fee (for Roth conversion or recharacterization) listed on SDIRA's IRA fee schedule. 

Also, SDIRA is now STRATA Trust Company.  Website is now https://www.stratatrust.com

Also the account termination fee for the self-directed IRA is $250.  That is another hit I will have to take to close things out once all my IRA notes are paid back or sold.xesxes

A few months ago SDIRA charged me $100 to transfer cash to Fidelity as a "partial termination" fee I guess. My current plan is to have enough in LC for them to pay the annual fee, then over the following year sell everything and close out for $250 before the next $100 annual fee comes due. I'm resigned to the fact that the $250 termination fee is like death and taxes (unavoidable).

Rob L

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Re: Worst Month Yet
« Reply #499 on: November 04, 2017, 09:55:57 AM »
So much for my tongue in cheek "better times ahead" comment last month. Need I even say it; another losing month.
Delinquencies have now risen to an all time high. I'm gonna need a bigger boat (well, bigger y-axis maximum value).
I've added a third graph tracking monthly profitability as an annualized percentage of principal invested and fondly look back on the likely-never-to-be seen-again good old days.







dr.everett

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Re: Worst Month Yet
« Reply #500 on: November 04, 2017, 11:44:10 AM »
Your last graph says it all. I too miss the 14% days. People ask why we're leaving- show them that.  :'(
I see charts like that and I'm thankful I'm almost fully liquidated. It's taken way longer than I expected to do, but seeing the losses piling up for others as well, confirms I'm dong the right thing for me.

jheizer

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Re: Worst Month Yet
« Reply #501 on: November 04, 2017, 12:36:22 PM »
-$0.86 this month. First negative one in a few.
Replacement to P2P Quant's Percentile Tool http://lc.geekminute.com

anabio

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Re: Worst Month Yet
« Reply #502 on: November 05, 2017, 06:55:42 AM »
It looks like I finally turned the corner with notes going IGP...its about time :-\. Only have 1 note in grace right now (out of 533 current). In January I had around 6-7 in grace at any given time. Previous months I mostly had double digit graces at any given time.

Well...if that don't beat all... I mentioned I only  had one note in IGP and what happens??? 5 trade days later...whomp!...I now have 12. Would have been 13 but the one I had IGP on the 16th went 16-30 days late.
"If it weren't for bad luck I'd have no luck at all ..."

Talk about no luck at all...well...I keep waiting and that corner just keeps sitting there in the far distant mist.

I now have only 44 loans left. 7 of those 44 are IGP and 3 of those IGP have only ONE payment left. I guess the saving grace is that most of those IGP don't have much left in principal for me to lose if they are charged off.

I doubt I'll see 0 IGP even in February when I will only have  6 loans left (all 60 months)...right now 1 of those 60 month loans is IGP and another one took a huge FICO hit and I figure it will go IGP on its next payment.
As Will Rogers stated: : I'm not as concerned about the return on my money as I am the return of my money

Rob L

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Re: Worst Month Yet
« Reply #503 on: November 05, 2017, 09:15:18 AM »
It looks like I finally turned the corner with notes going IGP...its about time :-\. Only have 1 note in grace right now (out of 533 current). In January I had around 6-7 in grace at any given time. Previous months I mostly had double digit graces at any given time.

Well...if that don't beat all... I mentioned I only  had one note in IGP and what happens??? 5 trade days later...whomp!...I now have 12. Would have been 13 but the one I had IGP on the 16th went 16-30 days late.
"If it weren't for bad luck I'd have no luck at all ..."

Talk about no luck at all...well...I keep waiting and that corner just keeps sitting there in the far distant mist.

I now have only 44 loans left. 7 of those 44 are IGP and 3 of those IGP have only ONE payment left. I guess the saving grace is that most of those IGP don't have much left in principal for me to lose if they are charged off.

I doubt I'll see 0 IGP even in February when I will only have  6 loans left (all 60 months)...right now 1 of those 60 month loans is IGP and another one took a huge FICO hit and I figure it will go IGP on its next payment.

What a messed up deal! Don't walk under any ladders, break any mirrors, etc.

SeanMCA

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Re: Worst Month Yet
« Reply #504 on: November 05, 2017, 03:14:38 PM »
I had a negative month too. Will definitely finish negative for the entire year.
I'm a merchant cash advance veteran exploring the p2p lending waters.

mschoenf

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Re: Worst Month Yet
« Reply #505 on: November 05, 2017, 11:45:00 PM »
The most painful thing is paying taxes on an investment where you lose money for the year which will be my case.  It will take me years to use up all the capital losses.  That was my big mistake in pursuing this investment, not realizing that mismatch.  Your net return might be 3%, but you're paying taxes as if you earned 20% if you invested in low-grade loans while an investment in higher grade loans might net out very similarly but without that huge capital loss you can't use for years.

lascott

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Re: Worst Month Yet
« Reply #506 on: November 06, 2017, 11:08:42 AM »
The most painful thing is paying taxes on an investment where you lose money for the year which will be my case.  It will take me years to use up all the capital losses.  That was my big mistake in pursuing this investment, not realizing that mismatch.  Your net return might be 3%, but you're paying taxes as if you earned 20% if you invested in low-grade loans while an investment in higher grade loans might net out very similarly but without that huge capital loss you can't use for years.
Indeed. I'm sure some have been able to sell other investments as a gain to help offset but that is not my scenerio.
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In the below if the blue vertical bars are below the 100% I made a modest profit.

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nonattender

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Re: Worst Month Yet
« Reply #507 on: November 06, 2017, 03:04:09 PM »
The most painful thing is paying taxes on an investment where you lose money for the year which will be my case.  It will take me years to use up all the capital losses.  That was my big mistake in pursuing this investment, not realizing that mismatch.  Your net return might be 3%, but you're paying taxes as if you earned 20% if you invested in low-grade loans while an investment in higher grade loans might net out very similarly but without that huge capital loss you can't use for years.

Yeah.  Not tax-efficient.  If the platforms had tasked the lobbyists onto that "small" fix during the JOBS Act days, under Obama, or onto the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act under Trump --- instead of all wanting to go huge and carve out a responsibility-free bank charter --- it'd be YUGE. :)
A little nonsense now and then is relished by the wisest men.

sensij

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Re: Worst Month Yet
« Reply #508 on: November 06, 2017, 04:31:15 PM »
I'm trying to put these thread updates into context.  We know there is a *account* performance curve that bottoms out at around 15 mo, based on the weighted average age of the holdings within the account.  We know that an account with continuous re-investment of note payments (and little contribution of new funds) should eventually stabilize at a weighted age of around 15 mo, if heavily skewed towards 36 mo notes.  The curves that LC presents are not weighted by account *size*, however...  one hypothesis is that the performance distribution of accounts with a weighted age out 20-30 months are getting lifted by accounts skewed towards 60 mo notes that are still in re-investment, while masking the lower returns of smaller accounts that are winding down.

Since re-investment has been stopped, it seems like this thread is essentially presenting the play-by-play that feeds "performance by vintage" charts like what @Fred93 had posted in a few threads, for example: https://forum.lendacademy.com/index.php/topic,4113.msg40832.html#msg40832.

Has anyone with a more agile feel for these numbers gotten a sense of whether these results are basically consistent with what we'd expect for an account that is winding down (perhaps adjusted for the now-known poor quality of the last vintage purchased in this account)?  It may not drive my decision-making, but I'd like to refine my expectations of what the eventual wind-down period will look like, and how long the account needs to exist in the re-investment state to cover the wind down costs and still meet my goals.


jd

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Re: Worst Month Yet
« Reply #509 on: November 06, 2017, 08:28:44 PM »
Is anyone doing good?  I can't believe that every single investor is down.