Author Topic: LC declining stock price: a signal?  (Read 14904 times)

yojoakak

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Re: LC declining stock price: a signal?
« Reply #15 on: January 20, 2016, 10:03:04 AM »

Rob L

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Re: LC declining stock price: a signal?
« Reply #16 on: January 20, 2016, 04:41:28 PM »
Don't know the reason but LC stock had a quite remarkable day today.
Something happened at 10am. Perhaps a short covering rally started at just under $7 per share.
The stock stopped its decline while the overall market continued to dive.
LC closed up about 8% on a volatile day that the S&P ended down 1.25%.
In after hours (at 5 pm) it lost all 8% and is now about where it started the day at $7.50 per share.
Zowie.

Riker

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Re: LC declining stock price: a signal?
« Reply #17 on: January 20, 2016, 10:01:28 PM »
Did see the uptick, didn't see any news (think I need a better news source).  Not only was there an uptick but it happened while the market was taking a major pounding.  Wondering if this is the start of value investors, or just normal fluctuations, I have only been looking at the stock a few days.  The after hours drop was only temporary, its back up (as of this posting).  After hours can bounce around a lot more due to volume issues, with LC being low volume in the first place it just adds to the after hours bouncing.

I get the idea of holding earnings at or near zero with a focus on growth, similar to amazon, and you are likely correct.  Makes it harder to value the company.  Not sure if equity growth would be the thing to look at in it place, did an estimate that came in at +0.15/share growth for the last year, and the rate is increasing each quarter.

Read most of the hate the stock article, don't like to register to every site on the planet just to read stuff  >:(.  But it made me wonder what LC's costs are to LendingTree.  Also makes me wonder how much they are spending to grow, and once they have hit some size point will those cost drop or hold constant.
"Don't believe everything you read on the internet" - George Washington

Riker

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Re: LC declining stock price: a signal?
« Reply #18 on: January 28, 2016, 11:14:36 PM »
Noticed LC stock took a hit due to this news:

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/shareholder-alert-bronstein-gewirtz-grossman-150000316.html

I was not aware that LC was being looked over, could you guys give me your thoughts on this?

Thanks
"Don't believe everything you read on the internet" - George Washington

nonattender

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Re: LC declining stock price: a signal?
« Reply #19 on: January 28, 2016, 11:25:25 PM »
My thought on that is that I glanced, said to myself "ambulance chasers", and then closed the window.
A little nonsense now and then is relished by the wisest men.

SeanMCA

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Re: LC declining stock price: a signal?
« Reply #20 on: January 28, 2016, 11:41:02 PM »
My thought on that is that I glanced, said to myself "ambulance chasers", and then closed the window.

Yup. This is exactly how the class action against OnDeck started. Basically once the stock falls by a certain percentage, it triggers this whole group of law firms (that make a living this way) to issue press releases soliciting potential plaintiffs who lost money on the stock. Once they recruit someone to be their plaintiff, they file a class action. In the OnDeck lawsuit, not only was the company sued, but so was the company's officers individually and the banks that underwrote the stock. The original plaintiff I believe that initiated the class action was a single person who had bought only 100 shares of stock on the day of the IPO.

The allegation was basically that someone basically must've lied and committed fraud because the stock was trading so much lower than the IPO price.
I'm a merchant cash advance veteran exploring the p2p lending waters.

Fred93

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Re: LC declining stock price: a signal?
« Reply #21 on: January 29, 2016, 12:09:36 AM »
I was not aware that LC was being looked over, could you guys give me your thoughts on this?

Every time a stock takes a big move down, lawyers do this thing where they advertise for clients who are angry, and then try to build a case which can be turned into a class action.  Doesn't mean there's anything wrong.  Just means the stock went down.

SeanMCA

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Re: LC declining stock price: a signal?
« Reply #22 on: January 29, 2016, 12:15:47 AM »
I was not aware that LC was being looked over, could you guys give me your thoughts on this?

Every time a stock takes a big move down, lawyers do this thing where they advertise for clients who are angry, and then try to build a case which can be turned into a class action.  Doesn't mean there's anything wrong.  Just means the stock went down.

Yup, basically just a cost of doing business.
I'm a merchant cash advance veteran exploring the p2p lending waters.

ThinleyWangchuk

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Re: LC declining stock price: a signal?
« Reply #23 on: February 04, 2016, 01:52:42 PM »
Besides the recent FED increases in the interest rates and LC adjustment, is there any known reason why the stock price of LC has gone down a lot in the last month? Is the market thinking that the quality of the loans is going to worsen so we will have more non-performing loans? Any theories?

@sergio0p  I am a portfolio manager.  My $.02 is that LC stock along with the general market (specifically tech stocks) are/were overvalued.  I haven't looked at the stock since the IPO (considered purchase) but it was grossly overvalued and had too much expectations built in.

Riker

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Re: LC declining stock price: a signal?
« Reply #24 on: February 05, 2016, 12:04:20 AM »
Thanks for the responses on the lawsuit, didn't know that sort of thing happened.

This article came out Tuesday claiming a lot of calls being purchased versus puts.  Have never research puts versus call volume before.  While call volume is higher for March 2016 and Jan 2017 there is a massive put volume for Feb 2016 (expires on the 19th).  Earnings come out on Feb 11th.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/traders-look-rally-lendingclub-060742991.html

Personally I am expecting a small positive number like +0.03 to +0.05/share.  I think the long term outlook for the stock is good.  But the short term I am still wondering about, I would think a +0.03 to +0.05/share report would be very positive news showing steady growth.  However that 20k put volume for Feb has me wondering what is going on.  It is possible that someone purchased a lot of cheap puts on the hopes for a drop after earnings.  But that is still about a $400k purchase that could loose its entire value in an instant, so it makes me wonder if smart money knows something?

Any thoughts?
Thanks
« Last Edit: February 05, 2016, 12:05:51 AM by Riker »
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Fred93

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Re: LC declining stock price: a signal?
« Reply #25 on: February 05, 2016, 12:27:24 AM »
This article came out Tuesday claiming a lot of calls being purchased versus puts.

Speculators will speculate, and article-writers will write articles, 99% of which are meaningless.  Ignore this stuff for benefit of your financial health.

Quote
Have never research puts versus call volume before.

So don't act on this stuff you've not educated yourself about.

Quote
However that 20k put volume for Feb has me wondering what is going on.  It is possible that someone purchased a lot of cheap puts on the hopes for a drop after earnings.  But that is still about a $400k purchase that could loose its entire value in an instant, so it makes me wonder if smart money knows something?

Could be "dumb money".  You don't know that they're smart.

rawraw

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Re: LC declining stock price: a signal?
« Reply #26 on: February 05, 2016, 04:44:10 AM »
I don't own LC because I can't decide what it is worth.  When I think of buying LC as a business, I'm not sure where the value comes from.  I'm not sure what multiple or margin it'll be able to sustain. 

Rude Dude

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Re: LC declining stock price: a signal?
« Reply #27 on: February 05, 2016, 12:42:14 PM »
I don't own LC because I can't decide what it is worth.  When I think of buying LC as a business, I'm not sure where the value comes from.  I'm not sure what multiple or margin it'll be able to sustain.

I agree, but maybe for a different reason. It's impossible to determine the company's projected earnings if chargeoffs aren't being properly forecasted or managed. LC may eventually be worth less than its net tangible assets if c/o's spike in the event the economy continues to weaken.

jennrod12

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Re: LC declining stock price: a signal?
« Reply #28 on: February 05, 2016, 03:49:29 PM »
LC doesn't lose money when the loans charge off, we lose money.

LC makes money all around.  They charge the borrower to process the loan and they charge the investors on each payment.  They get the float money from the investor's cash drag.  I've also noticed that on late payments I get charged more in investor fees than the late fees I receive, so I think they make money there, as well.

Only if investors stop funding loans will LC stop making money.

Jenn

LonghornSF

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Re: LC declining stock price: a signal?
« Reply #29 on: February 05, 2016, 04:34:10 PM »
Quote
LC makes money all around.

 ???

You might want to check that. LendingClub is barely profitable and over its history has produced a large loss. Even with the stock down 50%+ the current valuation still assumes the company can figure out a way to be massively profitable.