Author Topic: Retail Loan Availability  (Read 5931 times)

Rob L

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Retail Loan Availability
« on: June 10, 2016, 07:20:55 PM »
My choice to turn off my auto-invest program (8am 5/9) appears to be irrelevant at this point. While still not investing I do continue to observe. It was "feeding time" a couple of hours ago and 1904 loans were posted. Of these only 22 (1.16%) were initially listed fractional. I've never bought a single loan that was first listed whole for the obvious reason; if the institutions passed on it I'll pass as well. Of the 22 loans there was one D4 (just checked and it's funded I guess). I've only invested in D's and E's for a long time. Ergo; even if I wanted to invest my program would find nothing I want to buy (or maybe one $25 note). Meanwhile my cash balance is up to about 10% now. Funny, but simply waiting is more liquid than Folio  :D

And I had to add: This isn't a bad thing on LC's part; they are adjusting to lender demand. I (and others) pulled the plug and now there's no loans for sale. No reason for me to expect otherwise.
« Last Edit: June 10, 2016, 07:37:51 PM by Rob L »

P2PFact

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Re: Retail Loan Availability
« Reply #1 on: June 10, 2016, 08:16:58 PM »
It's very likely some hedge fund is ramping up buying. LC is trying to accommodate to help them build up the portfolio by allocating most to whole loan program. I think there was a news in WSJ on this.

P2PFact

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Re: Retail Loan Availability
« Reply #2 on: June 10, 2016, 08:29:10 PM »
It's very likely some hedge fund is ramping up buying. LC is trying to accommodate to help them build up the portfolio by allocating most to whole loan program. I think there was a news in WSJ on this.

http://www.wsj.com/articles/lendingclub-and-hedge-funds-have-discussed-major-funding-deals-1465476543

Lovinglifestyle

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Re: Retail Loan Availability
« Reply #3 on: June 10, 2016, 08:48:29 PM »
I agree with Rob, except I'm willing to buy.  Meanwhile, only one or two show up that interest me.  I think direct mailing to pre-approved customers is a terrible idea if LC is obligated to then lend to some without them going through the whole application process, or in spite of the application!  For LC to be buying up the ones that don't sell (because none of us want them) sounds like an even worse idea and just asking for trouble.  I wouldn't lend to most of these borrowers if they were my own family.

LC seems to be on top of the overdue notes right now.  No slack--IGP on the 4th day of no pay, and even on the 3rd day.  Am getting 5 a day, all with UP Fico trends.

I just withdrew $5K cash, leaving myself $2500 cash, because it comes back faster than my filters or I, manually, find anything.  There's no current danger of running out of cash when I won't lend to anybody already up to their eyeballs in debt with a distressed payment record and a high DTI.

dompazz

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Re: Retail Loan Availability
« Reply #4 on: June 10, 2016, 08:54:44 PM »
I've only seen 6 loans in the past 2 days that I wanted to buy.  4 of those were gone before my program could get the order in.  That's easily the worst hit rate I've seen since I started my automated buying in Feb. 

jheizer

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Re: Retail Loan Availability
« Reply #5 on: June 10, 2016, 09:03:34 PM »
Well there is 3! more loans. Ugh.  I actually bought 4 loans yesterday though.  Too slow :p
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GS

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Re: Retail Loan Availability
« Reply #6 on: June 10, 2016, 09:03:41 PM »
With all the loans not getting funded on the fractional platform, I don't blame LC for giving the whole loan program the first crack at new loans.

dompazz

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Re: Retail Loan Availability
« Reply #7 on: June 10, 2016, 09:13:57 PM »
With all the loans not getting funded on the fractional platform, I don't blame LC for giving the whole loan program the first crack at new loans.
Raising rates brought me and I am guessing some others back in.  Anecdotal evidence would say that demand is picking back up.  But 3 questionable quality notes is not going to cut it.

fliphusker

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Re: Retail Loan Availability
« Reply #8 on: June 11, 2016, 04:14:46 AM »
Rob, I know that you have put notes on FOLIO at fairly steep discounts.  As you have stopped investing, why not in the meantime get into learning FOLIO.  Not saying get into the buying there, but find the trends, find where the prices are.  Ya I am so small time, butt here are 10-15 notes everyday when I go to reinvest, that fit my very tight criteria.  I know FOLIO sucks to learn and I know FOLIO sucks to find individual notes if your finding notes through NSR.  But when there is constantly notes to be had above 3% discount which there is zip wrong with, no reason not to at least learn, if your idle. 
Today almost bought a nice D4, could have been the same one on LC, but instead found two notes on FOLIO for $15 more with zero issues and better YTM.  One just can use the joke of filtering on FOLIO, have to use a 3rd-party-site. 
If I was a bigger investor, I would absolutely be using PeerCube for FOLIO. 

Fudgenut

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Re: Retail Loan Availability
« Reply #9 on: June 11, 2016, 12:36:59 PM »
The discounts on folio are actually not that great anymore when you use the actual interest rate for the note (accounting for the increased interest rates if buying the same grade of note today).  You still can get 1%ers with the occasional 3%er (that disappears instantly, so good luck unless you are automated), but last month you could get 5% discounters with ease.  It could be my filter criteria is too tight as well though...

Rob L

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Re: Retail Loan Availability
« Reply #10 on: June 11, 2016, 01:08:53 PM »
Rob, I know that you have put notes on FOLIO at fairly steep discounts.  As you have stopped investing, why not in the meantime get into learning FOLIO.  Not saying get into the buying there, but find the trends, find where the prices are.  Ya I am so small time, butt here are 10-15 notes everyday when I go to reinvest, that fit my very tight criteria.  I know FOLIO sucks to learn and I know FOLIO sucks to find individual notes if your finding notes through NSR.  But when there is constantly notes to be had above 3% discount which there is zip wrong with, no reason not to at least learn, if your idle. 
Today almost bought a nice D4, could have been the same one on LC, but instead found two notes on FOLIO for $15 more with zero issues and better YTM.  One just can use the joke of filtering on FOLIO, have to use a 3rd-party-site. 
If I was a bigger investor, I would absolutely be using PeerCube for FOLIO.

As the saying goes; "I've not yet begun to fight sell at a discount". A few "issued's" sold at par (I have no more of them) and a note or two just to test the market response. What I have been doing is what you recommend, learning Folio, and I've spent a lot of time over the past month doing that. Guess it went against my nature to sell without knowing what I'm selling nor something about the market itself. I've never been in a particular hurry to vacate though the learning process has taken longer than I thought. Anyway, I feel like I've learned quite a lot. I sure did and still do have a lot to learn.

With around 6,000 notes to sell and 500,000+ listed notes I've put a lot of time into some software that merges and aggregates the information of mynotes and smallnotes into a form I can understand. I'm at the point where I think I now know what I'm selling and what the market has to say about it more or less. Through this I've formed the opinion that knowing what I'm selling is more important. The market is zany. That may in some measure be caused by the poor tools available to sellers (and buyers) that are not using third parties or writing their own automation and by the lack of historic trade information. I'd really like to understand the depth of the market, my wild guess is not much, but I don't think the information that would let me figure this out is available.

sommers

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Re: Retail Loan Availability
« Reply #11 on: June 11, 2016, 03:25:26 PM »
I agree with Rob, except I'm willing to buy.  Meanwhile, only one or two show up that interest me.  I think direct mailing to pre-approved customers is a terrible idea if LC is obligated to then lend to some without them going through the whole application process, or in spite of the application!  For LC to be buying up the ones that don't sell (because none of us want them) sounds like an even worse idea and just asking for trouble.  I wouldn't lend to most of these borrowers if they were my own family.

LC seems to be on top of the overdue notes right now.  No slack--IGP on the 4th day of no pay, and even on the 3rd day.  Am getting 5 a day, all with UP Fico trends.

I just withdrew $5K cash, leaving myself $2500 cash, because it comes back faster than my filters or I, manually, find anything.  There's no current danger of running out of cash when I won't lend to anybody already up to their eyeballs in debt with a distressed payment record and a high DTI.

Well buy MINE!!  I'm liquidating---I'm now at a 2% discount on what I have left. I have moved over $40K at between 1% markup to 1% discount.  I am just throwing them out there and discounting as I see my demand dry up at a given discount level.  I went to a 2% discount today on my remaining $40K and getting good action.  Looks like so far I've moved over 400 notes.  thinking I"ll be in the $30K-ish range of remaining notes by Monday. 
and once people dry up at this level--rinse and repeat--probably start moving down in 1/2% increments now. 
Hope LC stays in business for another month (when I should be outta here)

jheizer

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Re: Retail Loan Availability
« Reply #12 on: June 11, 2016, 03:41:11 PM »
Yeah all the easy 5% discount ones have dried up.  I only ended up buying a grand of them in the end.  Passing 3 or 4% and I'll be all over it.  But remaining picky.
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fliphusker

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Re: Retail Loan Availability
« Reply #13 on: June 11, 2016, 07:55:36 PM »
Rob, I know that you have put notes on FOLIO at fairly steep discounts.  As you have stopped investing, why not in the meantime get into learning FOLIO.  Not saying get into the buying there, but find the trends, find where the prices are.  Ya I am so small time, butt here are 10-15 notes everyday when I go to reinvest, that fit my very tight criteria.  I know FOLIO sucks to learn and I know FOLIO sucks to find individual notes if your finding notes through NSR.  But when there is constantly notes to be had above 3% discount which there is zip wrong with, no reason not to at least learn, if your idle. 
Today almost bought a nice D4, could have been the same one on LC, but instead found two notes on FOLIO for $15 more with zero issues and better YTM.  One just can use the joke of filtering on FOLIO, have to use a 3rd-party-site. 
If I was a bigger investor, I would absolutely be using PeerCube for FOLIO.

As the saying goes; "I've not yet begun to fight sell at a discount". A few "issued's" sold at par (I have no more of them) and a note or two just to test the market response. What I have been doing is what you recommend, learning Folio, and I've spent a lot of time over the past month doing that. Guess it went against my nature to sell without knowing what I'm selling nor something about the market itself. I've never been in a particular hurry to vacate though the learning process has taken longer than I thought. Anyway, I feel like I've learned quite a lot. I sure did and still do have a lot to learn.

With around 6,000 notes to sell and 500,000+ listed notes I've put a lot of time into some software that merges and aggregates the information of mynotes and smallnotes into a form I can understand. I'm at the point where I think I now know what I'm selling and what the market has to say about it more or less. Through this I've formed the opinion that knowing what I'm selling is more important. The market is zany. That may in some measure be caused by the poor tools available to sellers (and buyers) that are not using third parties or writing their own automation and by the lack of historic trade information. I'd really like to understand the depth of the market, my wild guess is not much, but I don't think the information that would let me figure this out is available.
Wow nice going all out on dealing with FOLIO.  FOLIO is a crazy place indeed.  Over half the notes on FOLIO have a markup of over 1%.  My assumption is 20% who have these notes listed for that amount are not intending to actually sell their notes except for people who have a broken auto buy filter.  The other 80% probably do not know the FOLIO market.  Not going to say that the FOLIO market is really understandable, because well, it is not.  Does not help that the FOLIO site is a joke. 
Sommers, sorry to see you either taking losses or losing all your profits.  Hope that you find a more stable investment that you feel comfortable with the risk to reward in.  I still am only buying above 3% discount and great YTM, as do not buy with a diminished YTM. 

Rob L

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Re: Retail Loan Availability
« Reply #14 on: June 12, 2016, 12:54:08 AM »
I still am only buying above 3% discount and great YTM, as do not buy with a diminished YTM.

It wasn't immediately obvious to me that the YTM that Folio shows the seller when adjusting markup/discount includes the effect the 1% service fee the buyer will incur during the life of the loan. Had to scratch my head and wonder why when I set the selling price equal to remaining principal + accrued interest (markup / discount = 0%) the YTM was nowhere close to the original interest rate. I remembered a previous thread that covered the YTM thing pretty well and RaymonG's example with cash flows "net of fees".

http://www.lendacademy.com/forum/index.php?topic=3633.15

For example Loan id: 36360263 is an E3:19.99% interest rate, perfect payment record, 36 month term and 18 payments remaining.  I own a $50 note. Pricing by Folio shows that if I list my note at 0% markup/discount the YTM is only 17.62%. If I discount it by the accrued interest (-0.38% markdown) the YTM is 18.12%. For this note to have a YTM of 19.99% requires a discount of 1.81%. The YTM of this note when freshly minted was only 19.26% and it's downhill every payment from there.

Hey, if I've got this messed up or there's another part to the story please fill me in. Need all the help I can get!