Author Topic: Cashing Out  (Read 16086 times)

justice42

  • Newbie
  • *
  • Posts: 25
  • small fish
    • View Profile
    • Email
Re: Cashing Out
« Reply #15 on: July 08, 2016, 03:57:38 PM »
Keep selling on folio! I'm loving the great deals!  8)
ANAR reaching 13% and climbing

jheizer

  • Sr. Member
  • ****
  • Posts: 472
    • View Profile
    • LC Tools
Re: Cashing Out
« Reply #16 on: July 08, 2016, 06:19:18 PM »
One of my very few $50 folio notes decided to immediately file bankruptcy after I bought it killing my folio ANAR :(  https://www.lendingclub.com/account/loanPerf.action?loan_id=60625794&order_id=115616771&note_id=95497964  though somehow I screwed up and bought it on 6/1...  I'm co confused right now.
« Last Edit: July 08, 2016, 06:23:28 PM by jheizer »
Replacement to P2P Quant's Percentile Tool http://lc.geekminute.com

Rob L

  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 2039
    • View Profile
Re: Cashing Out
« Reply #17 on: July 08, 2016, 07:16:45 PM »
One of my very few $50 folio notes decided to immediately file bankruptcy after I bought it killing my folio ANAR :(  https://www.lendingclub.com/account/loanPerf.action?loan_id=60625794&order_id=115616771&note_id=95497964  though somehow I screwed up and bought it on 6/1...  I'm co confused right now.
Wasn't one of mine  :-\

Ran

  • Full Member
  • ***
  • Posts: 145
    • View Profile
    • Email
Cashing Out
« Reply #18 on: July 08, 2016, 09:59:51 PM »
One of my very few $50 folio notes decided to immediately file bankruptcy after I bought it killing my folio ANAR :(  https://www.lendingclub.com/account/loanPerf.action?loan_id=60625794&order_id=115616771&note_id=95497964  though somehow I screwed up and bought it on 6/1...  I'm co confused right now.
One of those black swan events. You have to buy a lot to diversify.

sommers

  • Jr. Member
  • **
  • Posts: 77
    • View Profile
    • Email
Re: Cashing Out
« Reply #19 on: July 09, 2016, 08:28:51 AM »
One of my very few $50 folio notes decided to immediately file bankruptcy after I bought it killing my folio ANAR :(  https://www.lendingclub.com/account/loanPerf.action?loan_id=60625794&order_id=115616771&note_id=95497964  though somehow I screwed up and bought it on 6/1...  I'm co confused right now.omp

A big concern of mine that is driving my exit is a reduction in underwriting standards as LC tries to build their book back up (and with all the P2P competition)

fliphusker

  • Sr. Member
  • ****
  • Posts: 463
    • View Profile
    • Email
Re: Cashing Out
« Reply #20 on: July 09, 2016, 09:30:35 AM »
One of my very few $50 folio notes decided to immediately file bankruptcy after I bought it killing my folio ANAR :(  https://www.lendingclub.com/account/loanPerf.action?loan_id=60625794&order_id=115616771&note_id=95497964  though somehow I screwed up and bought it on 6/1...  I'm co confused right now.omp

A big concern of mine that is driving my exit is a reduction in underwriting standards as LC tries to build their book back up (and with all the P2P competition)
They have bought their own loans, and have actually strengthened their risk tolerance by slicing the max amount lent.  Also raising rates.  There has been a downturn in the number of investors which means a glut in the amount of notes.  So why would they change their underwriting in this kind of environment?  LC used to turn away 85% of all applicants, what do you think it is now?  My assumption is 90%.  LC does not want their own skin in the game, and I do not want them to either. 

rawraw

  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 2759
    • View Profile
Re: Cashing Out
« Reply #21 on: July 09, 2016, 10:41:36 AM »
One of my very few $50 folio notes decided to immediately file bankruptcy after I bought it killing my folio ANAR :(  https://www.lendingclub.com/account/loanPerf.action?loan_id=60625794&order_id=115616771&note_id=95497964  though somehow I screwed up and bought it on 6/1...  I'm co confused right now.omp

A big concern of mine that is driving my exit is a reduction in underwriting standards as LC tries to build their book back up (and with all the P2P competition)
This shouldn't be a concern as long as you have visibility into the credit of all the borrowers approved and rejected.  LC hasn't removed this visibility yet

We've interacted via PM and I've read your posts.  While it is ultimately your choice, my impression is you've experienced the "typical" retail experience in investing.  Hopping into things when they are hot and getting burned.  It's interesting, the average investor in mutual funds earns a fraction of the actual performance of the mutual funds due to them jumping in and out at the wrong times.  While I do not think you should invest in LC notes if it doesn't meet your risk profile, I'd warn you against just trusting your gut.  My impression is you've been scared by the financial media of credit quality in subprime, recession risk, etc.  If you ever track the accuracy of those guys forecasts, you'll be much more skeptical.  One of the best things investors can do is stay put, with the assumption they understood the risks going into it.
« Last Edit: July 09, 2016, 10:44:30 AM by rawraw »

nonattender

  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 713
  • I am not here.
    • View Profile
Re: Cashing Out
« Reply #22 on: July 09, 2016, 11:32:39 AM »
A little nonsense now and then is relished by the wisest men.

fliphusker

  • Sr. Member
  • ****
  • Posts: 463
    • View Profile
    • Email
Re: Cashing Out
« Reply #23 on: July 09, 2016, 12:58:39 PM »
I am happy with this.  Let him take that 20M and and start something new he will try and mess up. 
This guy's cashing out, too, but on the equity side:

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-07-08/ex-lendingclub-ceo-laplanche-is-selling-20-million-of-stock

Fred93

  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 2136
    • View Profile
Re: Cashing Out
« Reply #24 on: July 09, 2016, 03:25:54 PM »
This guy's cashing out, too, but on the equity side:

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-07-08/ex-lendingclub-ceo-laplanche-is-selling-20-million-of-stock

The article says he disclosed in a filing intention to execute options.  Executing options is ACQUIRING stock, not selling.  I therefore went to look for the SEC filing on EDGAR, to check the details, and I do not find it.  The fact that I find no filing to check the article against is a big ? for me.

Options have expiration dates, so at some point, people are forced to execute them.  A common provision of employee options accelerates the deadline when an employee leaves the company.  I've seen 90 day rules at companies I've been involved with.  I note that we're right at 60 days after his resignation, so it is possible that the LC employee options had a 60 day after termination clause.  It seems likely that he was simply executing these options at the last possible moment, which is expected behavior.


RT45

  • Jr. Member
  • **
  • Posts: 93
    • View Profile
Re: Cashing Out
« Reply #25 on: July 09, 2016, 04:53:44 PM »
Most likely he would be acquiring the stock at a significant discount to what it is currently being traded at. Once that goes through there would probably be an additional sell order not that long after, maybe even same day.

Fred93

  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 2136
    • View Profile
Re: Cashing Out
« Reply #26 on: July 09, 2016, 05:32:26 PM »
Most likely he would be acquiring the stock at a significant discount to what it is currently being traded at. Once that goes through there would probably be an additional sell order not that long after, maybe even same day.

Sometimes there is.  Sometimes there isn't.  I wouldn't presume, as the article appeared to.  That's why I looked for the SEC filing.  However, it is not to be found.

Rob L

  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 2039
    • View Profile
Re: Cashing Out
« Reply #27 on: July 09, 2016, 06:53:36 PM »
Most likely he would be acquiring the stock at a significant discount to what it is currently being traded at. Once that goes through there would probably be an additional sell order not that long after, maybe even same day.

Sometimes there is.  Sometimes there isn't.  I wouldn't presume, as the article appeared to.  That's why I looked for the SEC filing.  However, it is not to be found.

Since he's no longer with the company is he required to make an SEC filing? I have no idea; just a thought.
Either way I'm pretty sure he could hook up with an options market maker and simply say show me the money. The market maker would handle the exchange for physicals for a nominal fee and RL would pocket the cash with little effort. Of course if RL wanted to exercise the buy and then hold LC stock doubtless he could do just that if he has the cash. Wild off the wall totally substantantiated guess is the options are at 15 cents per share. So, he'd have to come up with about $700k to buy $20M of the stock at today's price. Pocket change, right?

Fred93

  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 2136
    • View Profile
Re: Cashing Out
« Reply #28 on: July 09, 2016, 07:27:09 PM »
Since he's no longer with the company is he required to make an SEC filing? I have no idea; just a thought.

I don't know.  That's a complicated question.  However, the Bloomberg article SAYS that there was a filing...

Quote
Laplanche disclosed a plan to execute options for 4.63 million shares of the San Francisco-based company in a filing dated June 29.

I found another bloomberg article that says there's a June 13th filing that says he sold some shares.  Clearly they have a source of "filings" that I have not been able to locate.  I thought I understood SEC EDGAR, but I learn new things all the time.  (Either that or Bloomberg is full of ...)

I just found the SEC's "full text search" and typed in Laplanche.  It didn't find these filings that Bloomberg mentions either.
« Last Edit: July 09, 2016, 11:58:09 PM by Fred93 »

sommers

  • Jr. Member
  • **
  • Posts: 77
    • View Profile
    • Email
Re: Cashing Out
« Reply #29 on: July 13, 2016, 06:24:12 PM »
One of my very few $50 folio notes decided to immediately file bankruptcy after I bought it killing my folio ANAR :(  https://www.lendingclub.com/account/loanPerf.action?loan_id=60625794&order_id=115616771&note_id=95497964  though somehow I screwed up and bought it on 6/1...  I'm co confused right now.omp

A big concern of mine that is driving my exit is a reduction in underwriting standards as LC tries to build their book back up (and with all the P2P competition)
This shouldn't be a concern as long as you have visibility into the credit of all the borrowers approved and rejected.  LC hasn't removed this visibility yet

We've interacted via PM and I've read your posts.  While it is ultimately your choice, my impression is you've experienced the "typical" retail experience in investing.  Hopping into things when they are hot and getting burned.  It's interesting, the average investor in mutual funds earns a fraction of the actual performance of the mutual funds due to them jumping in and out at the wrong times.  While I do not think you should invest in LC notes if it doesn't meet your risk profile, I'd warn you against just trusting your gut.  My impression is you've been scared by the financial media of credit quality in subprime, recession risk, etc.  If you ever track the accuracy of those guys forecasts, you'll be much more skeptical.  One of the best things investors can do is stay put, with the assumption they understood the risks going into it.

Not at all--this has been a good investment---turned $75K into $90K is about 3 years time--and all on auto pilot with zero effort--
Just think the credit market is changing and see a greater risk in all things LC than alternative investments.  This simple "scandal" has apparently crippled this company.   It seems like a pretty fragile business model to me--and I don't trust these guys to do good underwriting