Author Topic: Widely Inaccurate Forecasting  (Read 4665 times)

klsoren

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Widely Inaccurate Forecasting
« on: October 21, 2016, 07:36:07 PM »
I am seeing widely inaccurate values in the "Forecast" section of the lending robot website. I'm curious if anyone else is seeing similarly inaccurate data? I have some examples below. In my examples I normalized all the reported data to $100. That is, I'm assuming the that the "Total Reported Value" as of Today (Oct 21) = $100. Also, my "Expected Return" is 11.74%.

---------EXAMPLE 1----------
- Forecast Selection Options: Daily, Full Re-investment.
- Forecast Portfolio Value for Today (Oct 21) = $93.9
- Forecast Portfolio Value for Nov 18 = $94.41
- Observations: Both of these values should be higher than my "Total Reported Value" for Oct 21. Also, the increase reported between Oct 21 and Nov 18 represents an annualized rate of return of approximately  6.5%. This is much less then my "Expected Return" of 11.7%.


---------EXAMPLE 2----------
- Forecast Selection Options: Quarterly, Full Re-investment.
- Forecast Portfolio Value for this month (Oct 2016) = $103.8
- Forecast Portfolio Value for Oct 2019 = $141.5
- Observations: The value for Oct 2016 shouldn't be 4% higher than my "Total Reported Value" for Oct 21. Also, the increase reported between Oct 2016 and Oct 2019 represents an annualized rate of return of approximately 10%. This is less then my "Expected Return" of 11.7%

I could show many more examples that don't make sense. In fact, I don't recall ever seeing data on the forecast model that did make sense.

Am I the only one?