Author Topic: Updated Orchard Index Points to Needed Improvements for U.S. Consumer Online Len  (Read 3535 times)

lascott

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    • Appreciate my post and want to try LendingRobot? URL below
https://www.orchardplatform.com/blog/updated-orchard-index-points-needed-improvements-u-s-consumer-online-lending/

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Annual and monthly return data have trended down.  2016 saw a nearly 300 basis point decrease in total return from 2015 (3.95% vs. 6.93%), and 2015 was lower than 2014 (6.93% vs. 8.71%) by nearly 180 basis points. So over a two-year period, we have seen nearly 480 basis points of return compression for investors in these loans; that is a meaningful, negative change.  This downward trend has continued into the first quarter of 2017. 
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Tools I use: (main) BlueVestment: https://www.bluevestment.com/app/pricing + https://www.interestradar.com/ , (others) Lending Robot referral link: https://www.lendingrobot.com/ref/scott473/  & Peercube referral code: DFVA9Y

Rob L

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https://www.orchardplatform.com/blog/updated-orchard-index-points-needed-improvements-u-s-consumer-online-lending/

<snip>
Annual and monthly return data have trended down.  2016 saw a nearly 300 basis point decrease in total return from 2015 (3.95% vs. 6.93%), and 2015 was lower than 2014 (6.93% vs. 8.71%) by nearly 180 basis points. So over a two-year period, we have seen nearly 480 basis points of return compression for investors in these loans; that is a meaningful, negative change.  This downward trend has continued into the first quarter of 2017. 
<snip>

Yeah, tell me about it!

AnilG

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Nothing new that people on this forum didn't already know. This is one of the situation where aggregate data lagged individual observations and perspectives.
---
Anil Gupta
PeerCube Thoughts blog https://www.peercube.com/blog
PeerCube https://www.peercube.com

Fred93

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Glad to see this is finally visible to the big boys.

JohnnyP

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Those Orchard returns are interesting. It appears to me that the monthly returns are not associated with loans originated in that month, but the return of the entire outstanding principle during that month from all loan vintages. Is that how you guys see it?

If that is true, it reflects what I have seen in my portfolio. It absolutely cratered in Nov and December and has been gradually recovering (relatively speaking).

Fred93

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Those Orchard returns are interesting. It appears to me that the monthly returns are not associated with loans originated in that month, but the return of the entire outstanding principle during that month from all loan vintages. Is that how you guys see it?

Yes.