Author Topic: Worst Month Yet, Prosper Version  (Read 2021 times)

Rob L

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Worst Month Yet, Prosper Version
« on: June 04, 2017, 05:57:13 PM »
These charts were kept up to date until about a year ago when I started ignoring Prosper.
Since a new monthly statement just came out I thought it would be a good time to bring them up to date.

For the record my account was funded with one single investment in July of 2014. I used Prosper Quick Invest with a very small number of filters that selected only A and B notes, $25 each.
When Prosper shut down Folio I'd had enough and discontinued purchasing notes in September of 2016.
My Prosper main page says my Annualized Net Returns are now 3.94% which seems close to the cumulative profit chart above.
Very roughly, 10.73% / ( 34 months / 12 months) = 3.79%.
I have no idea what it said before they fixed their problem, but I never believed it anyway. It was always way higher than anything I could compute.

Anyway FWIW:










Rob L

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Re: Worst Month Yet, Prosper Version
« Reply #1 on: July 06, 2017, 02:15:14 PM »
Again FWIW, another month --









Bpoole99

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Re: Worst Month Yet, Prosper Version
« Reply #2 on: July 08, 2017, 06:11:50 PM »
Don't know, but I am having great luck with Prosper.  I have over invested in more than 2000 loans and am getting >10% return coming up on my first anniversary.  I think the only way to go is to use the API.  The auto invest doesn't have adequate filtering and its far too tedious to do manually.

Rob L

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Re: Worst Month Yet, Prosper Version
« Reply #3 on: July 09, 2017, 11:29:45 AM »
Don't know, but I am having great luck with Prosper.  I have over invested in more than 2000 loans and am getting >10% return coming up on my first anniversary.  I think the only way to go is to use the API.  The auto invest doesn't have adequate filtering and its far too tedious to do manually.

That's really interesting. Since your account is only a year old then your earliest vintage is perhaps July 2016 and its taken some time to ramp up to 2000 notes. Maybe Prosper has done a good job adapting to degraded borrower performance (presuming it has degraded significantly over the past couple of years as has been much discussed on the forum here in the LC threads).

On your filtering comment I only invested in low risk A-B loans. IMO filtering of low risk loans is much less effective or important than filtering of higher risk ones. That's why I was comfortable using a small number of filter parameters and Prosper's quick invest to purchase my loans. This was an assumption and I cannot back it up.

Out of curiosity:
What's the span of loan interest rates (constant over time where letter grades are not) in which you have invested?
What are the percentages of 36 and 60 month loans you own?
How are you measuring >10% returns?
How much difference did you see on your web account summary page in "Annualized Net Returns" before and after Prosper fixed the bug they found in their computation of this metric?
Finally, what were your thoughts when Prosper took away your ability liquidate your portfolio via FolioFn?

TIA
« Last Edit: July 09, 2017, 11:40:28 AM by Rob L »

Bpoole99

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Re: Worst Month Yet, Prosper Version
« Reply #4 on: July 10, 2017, 08:10:39 AM »
I have my own API that I wrote last year that uses about 20 criteria for choosing a loan.  These criteria were chosen to try to find borrowers with good payment history and solid (and higher) income.  I made an attempt to backtest the criteria, but in the end I think most are fairly common sense.  Since the criteria are very restrictive, I will on average only 1-5 loans purchased per day.  However, since it runs more or less constantly, I don't really have to think much about it.

What's the span of loan interest rates (constant over time where letter grades are not) in which you have invested? - I have only invested in loans with expected returns over 4.3%.  I don't know the breakdown off the top of my head, but the distribution of loans is probably centered around a B/C loan.
What are the percentages of 36 and 60 month loans you own?For quite a while I ignored term, but since April I have wanted to slow the growth in the account, so I only purchase 3 year loans.  This gives me slightly better liquidity and monthly cash flow should I need it.
How are you measuring >10% returns? I haven't donw any fancy analysis.  My Annualizsed Net Returns is 11.34% and Seasoned is 10.98%.  Lending Robot tells me my expected is 9.67%.  My back of the envelope calculations that I did at the end of June tell me that I have made over 5% on my average balance in the first half of the year
How much difference did you see on your web account summary page in "Annualized Net Returns" before and after Prosper fixed the bug they found in their computation of this metric?I don't recall a difference, but I had just started seeing that metric a couple of months prior, so I really hadn't paid too much attention
Finally, what were your thoughts when Prosper took away your ability liquidate your portfolio via FolioFn?Not something I ever looked into.  Of course I would prefer to be able to liquidate, but my preferred use of the platform is to create a constant cashflow

Since my average note is only 5-6 months old, my experience certainly could change as they mature.  Right now though, I am very happy with the platform.

Rob L

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Re: Worst Month Yet, Prosper Version
« Reply #5 on: July 10, 2017, 10:21:33 AM »
Thanks, keep us posted from time to time.

dbsb3233

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Re: Worst Month Yet, Prosper Version
« Reply #6 on: July 17, 2017, 07:49:10 PM »
I'm having much better luck with Propser than LC.  While my real LC returns keep dwindling way down (4.6% in one acct and 2.8% in the other), my real Prosper returns are holding up fairly well around 7-8%.  Not great but good enough to keep me happy as a more consistent return and a hedge against the high volatility of the stock market.  I keep about half of my total portfolio in S&P500 funds and the other half in peer-to-peer lending (LC, Prosper, and Peer Street).

That's using a basic auto invest filter (not API).  My account page shows a 6.72% Seasoned return, 7.22% All-notes return.  The account is 3.5 years old.  I only buy 36mo notes.  I have ~1900 active notes, mostly B and C grade but some D/E/HR too.  It's a little tricky to calculate a "real" return (true account value over time) longer term since I've been adding funds to my P account as I'm draining my disappointing LC accounts.  But I do have two clean periods for comparison where no funds were added.  One is the last 4 months, where my account value increased 8.2% (annualized).  The other was a 9-mo period in 2016 (Apr-Dec) where I also experienced a real 8.2% annualized return.  I added funds early in 1Q2016 and 1Q2017 which took a few months to invest into notes so I don't have clean data points for those months.

I think I'm done adding more money, and I don't plan to withdrawal any for years, so I should be able to better track long-term returns from here on out.  If I can keep getting around 8% real return, I'll be happy.
« Last Edit: July 17, 2017, 07:53:35 PM by dbsb3233 »

Rob L

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Re: Worst Month Yet, Prosper Version
« Reply #7 on: July 17, 2017, 08:33:20 PM »
Yeah, I agree. I've only lost money in three Prosper months, but many more in LC.
However, when Prosper took away my exit by shutting down Folio I decided to leave.
That was a deal breaker.

.Ryan.

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Re: Worst Month Yet, Prosper Version
« Reply #8 on: July 17, 2017, 08:35:16 PM »
I noticed your returns are declining, please check out my YouTube video and please give my LC Investment strategy a try.  It is free for now in Beta!  :) . I'll post this in every other thread on this board as well, just in case.

JUST KIDDING!! Don't shoot!!

I have been investing in Prosper since 2014 as well, and stopped all reinvesting a few months back. All funds are now being withdrawn as they become available.

For me, the gross miscalculation of the returns and being a private company (little visibility into the health of the business) were strikes one and two.

The removal of the secondary market was the death knell. I wish I had sold out before that happened, but I didn't have the finger on the trigger like I should have. Now I am stuck with an investment with a 3-5 year liquidity horizon. I personally believe(no data to back this up, just common sense) that P2P investments could incur significant losses during a pullback in the economy, and if this happens within the next 4.5 years, I won't be able to do anything but painfully watch this bleed out.

Rob L

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Re: Worst Month Yet, Prosper Version
« Reply #9 on: July 17, 2017, 08:44:17 PM »
I noticed your returns are declining, please check out my YouTube video and please give my LC Investment strategy a try.  It is free for now in Beta!  :) . I'll post this in every other thread on this board as well, just in case.

JUST KIDDING!! Don't shoot!!

I have been investing in Prosper since 2014 as well, and stopped all reinvesting a few months back. All funds are now being withdrawn as they become available.

For me, the gross miscalculation of the returns and being a private company (little visibility into the health of the business) were strikes one and two.

The removal of the secondary market was the death knell. I wish I had sold out before that happened, but I didn't have the finger on the trigger like I should have. Now I am stuck with an investment with a 3-5 year liquidity horizon. I personally believe(no data to back this up, just common sense) that P2P investments could incur significant losses during a pullback in the economy, and if this happens within the next 4.5 years, I won't be able to do anything but painfully watch this bleed out.

Sure.. Stand in line  :)

Fred93

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Re: Worst Month Yet, Prosper Version
« Reply #10 on: July 17, 2017, 09:40:26 PM »
For me, the gross miscalculation of the returns and being a private company (little visibility into the health of the business) were strikes one and two.

While it is correct that Prosper's stock is not owned by the public, they have issued securities that are owned by the public (ie notes), and as as a result, the SEC requires them to file the same stuff that other companies with public securities must file.  So there's an annual 10K, and quarterly 10Q, occasional form 8K, and so forth.  Its all on the SEC web site.
« Last Edit: July 17, 2017, 09:42:16 PM by Fred93 »

dbsb3233

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Re: Worst Month Yet, Prosper Version
« Reply #11 on: July 18, 2017, 12:13:07 PM »
I personally believe(no data to back this up, just common sense) that P2P investments could incur significant losses during a pullback in the economy, and if this happens within the next 4.5 years, I won't be able to do anything but painfully watch this bleed out.

No doubt that P2P defaults will increase during recessions.  The big unknown is by how much.  I'm betting that the losses will be less than the losses the stock market incurs during recessions, which is the alternative place I would have my money invested instead.  But I could be wrong.  It's uncharted territory. 

For me it's more about diversity.  I don't want to have nearly all my money in the stock market.  And of the alternatives, I like P2P the best.  Even though it comes with risks too.

Rob L

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Re: Worst Month Yet, Prosper Version
« Reply #12 on: July 18, 2017, 07:25:47 PM »
I personally believe(no data to back this up, just common sense) that P2P investments could incur significant losses during a pullback in the economy, and if this happens within the next 4.5 years, I won't be able to do anything but painfully watch this bleed out.

No doubt that P2P defaults will increase during recessions.  The big unknown is by how much.  I'm betting that the losses will be less than the losses the stock market incurs during recessions, which is the alternative place I would have my money invested instead.  But I could be wrong.  It's uncharted territory. 

For me it's more about diversity.  I don't want to have nearly all my money in the stock market.  And of the alternatives, I like P2P the best.  Even though it comes with risks too.

I just had the most discomforting thought. A P2P loan is more like option (with no theta) than an equity. The most one can earn is the interest from a fully performing loan. The most one can lose is everything (loan default / charge off). Just saying ... BTW, this isn't an anti-diversity argument. I get that. Just a different point of view that may be possibly worth considering visa vi P2P loans.


dbsb3233

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Re: Worst Month Yet, Prosper Version
« Reply #13 on: July 19, 2017, 12:29:17 PM »
I personally believe(no data to back this up, just common sense) that P2P investments could incur significant losses during a pullback in the economy, and if this happens within the next 4.5 years, I won't be able to do anything but painfully watch this bleed out.

No doubt that P2P defaults will increase during recessions.  The big unknown is by how much.  I'm betting that the losses will be less than the losses the stock market incurs during recessions, which is the alternative place I would have my money invested instead.  But I could be wrong.  It's uncharted territory. 

For me it's more about diversity.  I don't want to have nearly all my money in the stock market.  And of the alternatives, I like P2P the best.  Even though it comes with risks too.

I just had the most discomforting thought. A P2P loan is more like option (with no theta) than an equity. The most one can earn is the interest from a fully performing loan. The most one can lose is everything (loan default / charge off). Just saying ... BTW, this isn't an anti-diversity argument. I get that. Just a different point of view that may be possibly worth considering visa vi P2P loans.
In a way, yes.  Although even an equity stock can go to zero where you lose everything, so it's got that in common too. 

But that's also why I (and most people) tend to invest in mutual funds rather than individual stocks.  Some stocks may go to zero but most won't, so the odds of the entire fund going to zero are infinitesimal (especially a broad fund like an S&P500 Index fund).  Similarly, that's why we invest in many P2P notes (thousands).  Some will be complete losses, but we're counting on the vast majority being paid back. 

Even in a recession, most commerce continues, 90% of the working population still has jobs, and life goes on for most.  Defaults will rise, of course, maybe even to the point that our P2P returns dip into the red.  But I don't think they'd fall to -20% or -30% like the stock market does during a bad run (although again, I could be wrong).  Of course, we'll never get a +20% or +30% year like the stock market has either.  I think of it as being a less volatile form of investing, with less risk, but not NO risk.

Rob L

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Re: Worst Month Yet, Prosper Version
« Reply #14 on: August 05, 2017, 06:22:54 PM »
Another month and another set of charts (spoiler, there are no surprises).
If Prosper had not shut down Folio I think I'd still be investing there. Liquidity has value!