Author Topic: June seems to be a horrible month for me  (Read 6086 times)

rubicon

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June seems to be a horrible month for me
« on: June 17, 2017, 01:55:35 PM »
Even worse than Jan/Feb. I've stopped re-investing my cashflows

apc3161

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Re: June seems to be a horrible month for me
« Reply #1 on: June 18, 2017, 12:44:54 PM »
Looking at the most recent quarterly report, it is stated that individual investor capital actually increased by $30 million this past quarter. However, it seems everyone on here is slowly withdrawing their money. How are these two observations compatible?

rawraw

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Re: June seems to be a horrible month for me
« Reply #2 on: June 18, 2017, 02:48:28 PM »
Looking at the most recent quarterly report, it is stated that individual investor capital actually increased by $30 million this past quarter. However, it seems everyone on here is slowly withdrawing their money. How are these two observations compatible?
Selection bias.  The "type A hyper sensitive do it yourselfers" that would 1) think about joining a forum on LC invesing and 2) maintain activity on that forum over time is a small subset of retail investors IMO.  I do not believe we are representative

AnilG

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Re: June seems to be a horrible month for me
« Reply #3 on: June 18, 2017, 05:18:23 PM »
Below is the fractional loans originated on LC platform from the latest historical loan files. There was slight drop off in fractional loan originations (can be considered indicative of interest from retail lenders) since Dec 2016. The increase in March 2017 was most probably driven by LC promotion as well as quarter-end increase in originations.  But numbers are still much better than same time last year. The LC portfolio is not quick to unwind so the decline may show up across longer time interval.

Fractional Loan Originations as of 2017 Q1 1 End, from loan history files
MonthOrigination $ Volume
2017-03138,193,625
2017-02116,734,600
2017-01122,044,275
2016-12127,280,950
2016-11121,435,975
2016-10130,105,400
2016-09128,213,525
2016-08110,971,875
2016-07123,194,600
2016-06118,425,825
2016-05105,480,150
2016-04103,948,125
2016-03107,819,675
2016-0276,007,400
2016-01119,958,325

Platform Loan Originations as of June, 2017, from SEC filings
« Last Edit: June 18, 2017, 05:33:07 PM by AnilG »
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Anil Gupta
PeerCube Thoughts blog https://www.peercube.com/blog
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sensij

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Re: June seems to be a horrible month for me
« Reply #4 on: June 19, 2017, 12:32:48 PM »
Looking at the most recent quarterly report, it is stated that individual investor capital actually increased by $30 million this past quarter. However, it seems everyone on here is slowly withdrawing their money. How are these two observations compatible?

"Everyone" is a bit much.  I represent some of the new money, opening a pair of IRA accounts this spring.  Part of the investment hypothesis is that 2017 originations will be better than the 2015-2016 vintages that are causing so much heartache, but time will tell.

Tomp

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Re: June seems to be a horrible month for me
« Reply #5 on: June 24, 2017, 10:48:52 AM »
Good God! so you are saying your investment thesis is "hope". lol

rawraw

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Re: June seems to be a horrible month for me
« Reply #6 on: June 24, 2017, 06:16:30 PM »
Good God! so you are saying your investment thesis is "hope". lol
Loans are often referred to as credit.  The English word for credit comes from credere, which means "to believe" or "to trust".  There is more hope in this stuff than many realize :)

nonattender

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Re: June seems to be a horrible month for me
« Reply #7 on: June 24, 2017, 08:23:47 PM »
Good God! so you are saying your investment thesis is "hope". lol
Loans are often referred to as credit.  The English word for credit comes from credere, which means "to believe" or "to trust".  There is more hope in this stuff than many realize :)

You guys are so cynical.  Next you'll try to tell me that cryptocurrencies are a scam and that I shouldn't do pointless math calcs all day long.
A little nonsense now and then is relished by the wisest men.

AnilG

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Re: June seems to be a horrible month for me
« Reply #8 on: June 24, 2017, 09:35:15 PM »
Cryptocurrencies are ponzi scheme!  8)

You guys are so cynical.  Next you'll try to tell me that cryptocurrencies are a scam and that I shouldn't do pointless math calcs all day long.
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nonattender

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Re: June seems to be a horrible month for me
« Reply #9 on: June 25, 2017, 08:57:39 PM »
Cryptocurrencies are ponzi scheme!  8)

You're just a hater.  Just in case, I have "diversified" my cryptocurrency retirement portfolio into an ETF-traded basket of ponzi schemes.

So, I'm safe.  8)
A little nonsense now and then is relished by the wisest men.

sensij

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Re: June seems to be a horrible month for me
« Reply #10 on: June 26, 2017, 12:42:21 PM »
Good God! so you are saying your investment thesis is "hope". lol

If you can't recognize the element of "hope" aka "risk" in your own investments, you are doing it wrong.  There are reasons to believe that more recent vintages will outperform 2015/2016, and reasons to believe they will not.  If you have information to share to quantify that risk, I'd love to see it.

au88

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Re: June seems to be a horrible month for me
« Reply #11 on: July 08, 2017, 11:02:20 PM »
Keep in mind the borrow default curve. If you stop reinvesting, then you stop getting interest from all of the new loans that probably haven't defaulted yet. The defaults keep rolling in though. June was also my worst month yet.

MichaelHollis

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Re: June seems to be a horrible month for me
« Reply #12 on: July 10, 2017, 07:28:47 AM »
Cryptocurrencies are ponzi scheme!  8)
Yeah, I thought that too. That explains the ups and massive downs.

hcharris

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Re: June seems to be a horrible month for me
« Reply #13 on: July 12, 2017, 11:54:40 AM »
I have had a number of bad months. I invested understanding that there were going to be defaults. But I also invested looking at the percentage of defaults I could expect. The current default rate is well over that and looks to get worse.

I have stopped investing and I'm slowly withdrawing my money. I wonder if borrowers look at Lending Club as an easy mark.

nonattender

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Re: June seems to be a horrible month for me
« Reply #14 on: July 12, 2017, 04:22:22 PM »
Cryptocurrencies are ponzi scheme!  8)
Yeah, I thought that too. That explains the ups and massive downs.

There's a ton of crap to sort through with all the different cryptocurrencies.  The only one that ever interested me is XRP (Ripple), which is a transaction platform with actual utility for foreign exchange, interbank, etc - it was sort of imagined to be a complement to SWIFT or what retail customers might think of as the ACH network.  I can't bring myself to try to differentiate it from the rest, as I'd need to rest my wrists for an hour (and maybe want to slash them) after I got done explaining, but it's had self-settling contracts ('smart contracts') from the beginning and is currently in use or in testing by a number of international banking consortiums and central banks.  Bank of England just did a trial run with it recently, etc.  I own some of the platform currency (XRP) from back when I played around with it, like five years ago  - happenstance, actually, I'd totally forgotten that I'd even bought some to do some testing.  It was started by Prosper's founding CEO and came to my attention because of that, at the time.  Now, it's apparently getting popular with individuals - in addition to all the government/government-sized institutions.  Who knew?  Maybe I'll make a buck or two.  Individuals can use it, and buy it, but it's almost harder to figure out than all the rest of them and doesn't have many small scale applications in its user ecosystem - mostly just the big institutional kids --- or so I thought...   One of the interesting things about it is that it's got a very granular set of "graphs"; "quantification of trust" (per aspect/entity/node) or built-in risk-management (capable of 'contagion-control', probably why the central bankers like it so much) mechanism/system being one of those sets of interlaced/interpolated graphs, almost a realtime network trust graph, with each node having currency gnostic/agnostic, per entity, credit / timing / window controls........ anyway... if anyone cares, go play with it a bit - that's the best bet to get anywhere close to understanding it.

I think I understand bitcoin - and I'm not interested.  Ethereum is new to me, but it looked very similar to something I'd seen years ago.  The new craze of "initial coin offerings" look a lot like vaporware (same as most of the other coins, but with slight - sometimes very, very slight twists - like almost "sleight of hand" twists) and only promise to be "useful" in some way way in the future, after the people who take all the money for the coins use their millions to actually develop some sort of software/platform that will make billions of dollars in transaction fees because it's just so damned useful (according to the notes that they hashed out at Panera Bread on a napkin, before selling the coins to the public)...

Ooof.. already tired of thinking about it.
« Last Edit: July 12, 2017, 06:05:01 PM by nonattender »
A little nonsense now and then is relished by the wisest men.