Author Topic: Investing with Bondora  (Read 5879 times)

wiseclerk_com

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Re: Investing with Bondora
« Reply #15 on: May 19, 2018, 06:52:13 PM »
Fred93 thx for doing the detailed analysis and sharing your steps and thoughts.

One point regarding
Quote
First, Bondora is SMALL relative to the P2P guys in the US.  Very very small.  They do about 1500 loans/month.  Average loan size is 1900 Euro.  That's about 3 million Euro/month, or 36 million Euro/year.  I got these numbers from the spreadsheet of all loans which you can download.

Contrast that to LC, which is originating about $7 billion/year.  (Euro and $ are almost same value.)

Bondora's originations are running at 1/200 the rate of Lendingclub!

The loans you are targeting (grades AA, A, B) are nearly all Estonian loans, with an occasional high graded Finnish loan in between.
Estonia has about 1M inhabitants therefore the market size for this nation is roughly 1/300 of the US market (325M inhabitants).

Bondora is constantly changing. It is a very different market now compared to when I started lending there in 2012. Thereby the strategies of investors have changed considerably too.
There are >15000 posts of Bondora investors discussing things here:
http://www.p2p-kredite.com/diskussion/bondora-isepankur-f17.html
(you will have to use Chrome with translate or Google translate).
Several of the very active investors that wrote scripts to use the API have switched from investing on the primary market and now concentrate mostly on buying and trading on the secondary market.
One very active investor, Oktaeder, who also programmed his own script recently summed up his 5 years investor experience on Bondora here:
http://p2p4oktaeder.blogspot.de/2017/12/funf-jahre-bondora.html 
At the point of writing he had 5000 loan parts in his portfolio.

My portfolio consists only of about 600 loan parts. But most of those are from the time when it was possible to make larger bids. I wrote my 5 years summary (in English) here:
https://www.p2p-banking.com/countries/baltic-my-p2p-lending-investment-portfolio-at-bondora-is-now-5-years-old/
But I haven't used the API for investing.
« Last Edit: May 19, 2018, 06:57:21 PM by wiseclerk_com »
I publish the http://www.p2p-banking.com blog

Fred93

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Re: Investing with Bondora
« Reply #16 on: May 19, 2018, 07:33:41 PM »
Thanks for those links, and the hint re using chrome.  Seems to be a healthy discussion going on among investors.

Re countries, I didn't restrict Bondora on countries, only grade.  It appears that there are no AA,A,B loans to borrowers in Spain, in other words Bondora's grading system believes all borrowers in Spain are risky.  Not sure what to make of that at this point.  Perhaps I'll have an opinion on this after I learn more.

Seems inconsistent with the press ... such as this... 4/22/2018
https://www.ft.com/content/19df28e6-43a7-11e8-93cf-67ac3a6482fd
Quote
... Spanish economy is on a roll. It has grown at above 3 per cent for the past three years, well above the eurozone average. The International Monetary Fund has raised 2018 growth forecasts from 2.4 per cent to 2.8 per cent, outstripping France, Germany and Italy.

Over the past few months, rating agencies Moody’s, Standard and Poor’s and Fitch have all upgraded Spain’s sovereign debt ratings. Spanish sovereign borrowing costs have fallen sharply over the past six months and unemployment is down from 26 per cent in 2013 to 16 per cent today. “We are going through the greatest economic period in Spanish history,” says Alberto Nadal, the secretary of state for budgets for the ruling centre-right Popular party government.

wiseclerk_com

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Re: Investing with Bondora
« Reply #17 on: May 20, 2018, 05:05:00 AM »
Spanish loans are risky (at least my opinion). The real point there is not to compare default rates of say Estonian vs. Spanish loan but whether you trust debt recovery procedures. The Spanish court system is totally different
For Estonian loans Bondora has shown that the procedures are working very good (better than in my home country Germany). And while it might take years, the bailiff eventually steadily recovers the outstanding debt, sometimes even with interest. For the Spanish market it will take further time to discover if Bondora can be equally successful in debt recovery.

In my portfolio there are predominantly Estonian loans and some Finnish loans.
I publish the http://www.p2p-banking.com blog

smartfond

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New software for investing with Bondora
« Reply #18 on: October 29, 2018, 03:41:24 AM »
Welcome to https://bondorabot.com 
The new app was created to present the software we developed for Bondora.com clients.
This app can potentially boost the performance of your portfolio on Bondora.com and is a natural alternative for using Bondora Portfolio Manager or Bondora Portfolio Pro.
Key benefits (features) of the software:
•   Neural network used to predict loan defaults with 80%+ accuracy of default predictions
•   Variable settings for key loan parameters (vintage, interest, price / XIRR, status)
•   The main purpose of the application is to maximize portfolio returns (meaning XIRR) by choosing the most profitable offers on loans on Bondora Secondary Market avoiding loans with high probability of default
If you are already a Bondora.com client, you can start using BondoraBot app to buy loans on Bondora's Secondary Market via Bondora API and get information on your portfolio within few minutes. And if not - you can follow https://bondora.com/ref/maximv3 to get onboard.

BondoraBot.com is a web application provided FREE OF CHARGE to anyone.

App for P2P Lending Investors
Bondora P2P 24x7 Any Place Any Device
[/i]
BondoraBot is a web-app to make investments with Bondora - famous and most technologically advanced European peer-to-peer lending platform
Multiple Portfolios
Sub-portfolios on a single Bondora Account
BondoraBot allows user to form as many portfolios with different strategies as needed
Speed & Reliability
Vapor 3 - Server Side Swift Development Framework
BondoraBot was developed using Vapor 3 Framework - one of the most used and efficient web frameworks for Swift

How Does the App Work?
First
BondoraBot gets auctions available on Bondora Secondary Market according to user preferences
Then
BondoraBot Neural Network checks if the loans are destined to default, and if not, it buys the most profitable loans
Finally
BondoraBot traces user's portfolios features and performance, updates investments, cashflows and forecasts from Bondora.com

Experience
From April 2017 I own a small investment company in Estonia, which is generally involved in 2 types of activities:
1.   Investing in personal loans via Bondora.com
2.   Investing in start-ups via Funderbeam.com
My investment target is income of not less than 15 % p.a.
While investing on Bondora I noticed that the return tends to be rather random (link). Though in many cases it will probably lean towards medium return (10-20% p.a.) a significant probability is seen that the actual return may be below zero (7 % probability) or below 10 % p.a. (22,5 % probability). Thus I consider it very possible that the actual return may be below the target.
At the same time the best return that one can probably get from investments on Bondora is above 25 % p.a. which seems like absolutely fantastic figure for EUR nominated investments with average risk and high diversification.
The way from having 30 % probability of poor return and rather small chances to win a prize - > to having a vanishing probability of return below average along with rather high probability of becoming best-in-class with 25+ p.a. on the pocket is Proactively managed risk-return strategy. Thus we need to:
•   Analyze each and every loanpart that we purchase on Bondora before actually buing it
•   Buy only loanparts that will not probably be in default
•   Buy only loanparts with the highest possible return
Being able to analyze 65 000 + loans with 100+ parameters each and choose from 250 000 + secondary loanparts offers at Bondora's secondary market is quite a tricky task.
This is what we can call Big Data task, that requires using Artificial Intelligence technics and Neural Network analysis along with the most profound knowledge in both credit risk analysis in consumer segment and financial statistics. To get an opinion of how actually this task may be solved I recommend to pass through following article.
Pricing P2P loans with Machine Learning for fun & profit Published on Published on July 1, 2016 by Eduardo Pena Vina (https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/pricing-p2p-loans-machine-learning-fun-profit-eduardo-pena-vina)
Today the basic tasks described above are completely solved with our new software BondoraBot.com. Here I only finish with the following:

When this site was launched, I used the software to operate a portfolio of 3’000 EUR with 1’500 loanparts bought on Secondary market beginning on May 31th. The actual IRR on existing portfolio in 150 days after BondoraBot.com launch was 25.74 % p.a.   

Disclaimer
We do not carry any obligations on support, renewals, efficiency, performance and even functioning of software, considering that it is provided for free and as-is. We do not collect any personal data. We do not track or trace users operations on Bondora.com. Our soft contains NO viruses, bugs, worms, hidden payments, advertisement, marketing promotions or other features that you may came across similar products distributed on the Net for free. Nor it does install any additional soft, plugings, media files, platforms or drivers.

BondoraBot is made without any support from or affiliation with Bondora AS (www.bondora.com)

This software is provided ‘as-is’, without any express or implied warranty

Permission is granted to anyone to use this software for any purpose, including commercial applications. In no event will the authors be held liable for any damages or investment loss arising from the use of this software.

Contributions
Vapor
Vapor 3 - A server-side Swift web framework
Neural-Network-Playground
hetelek/Neural-Network-Playground
CryptoSwift
krzyzanowskim/CryptoSwift