Author Topic: Lending Club Portfolio Score  (Read 1479 times)

Fred93

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Re: Lending Club Portfolio Score
« Reply #30 on: February 14, 2018, 02:24:41 PM »
Ok.  Decided to try it.  Took forever to calculate.  I get 49.7/82.  I have no idea what that means.  The rest of the web site is just lists of notes?  I don't get it.

I don't want to speak for LC picks but it is my understand that the closer you are to 66/82 (or higher) the better off your account is.

Reminds me of the old TV show "The Prisoner".  I'm sure I'm quoting badly, but the intro goes something like this...
Prisoner: Who is number one?
Detached voice: You are number six.
Prisoner: I'm a man, not a number!

49.7 and 66  are "just numbers".  Ok, so my choices rate lower than he things is "good" based on some mysterious criteria which we know absolutely nothing about.  So...?  Unless we know something about this mysterious rating system, then those numbers have no meaning. 



RomanLegend

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Re: Lending Club Portfolio Score
« Reply #31 on: February 14, 2018, 02:45:11 PM »
Ok.  Decided to try it.  Took forever to calculate.  I get 49.7/82.  I have no idea what that means.  The rest of the web site is just lists of notes?  I don't get it.

I don't want to speak for LC picks but it is my understand that the closer you are to 66/82 (or higher) the better off your account is.

Reminds me of the old TV show "The Prisoner".  I'm sure I'm quoting badly, but the intro goes something like this...
Prisoner: Who is number one?
Detached voice: You are number six.
Prisoner: I'm a man, not a number!

49.7 and 66  are "just numbers".  Ok, so my choices rate lower than he things is "good" based on some mysterious criteria which we know absolutely nothing about.  So...?  Unless we know something about this mysterious rating system, then those numbers have no meaning.

Those are the scoring values we've correlated to account performance.  I am willing to share as much as I can, and I think I've shown that especially within this thread.  All I would say to you is try it for the 2 week free trial and get a feel for it.  If you do not like it, or you do not trust our approach, delete your account.  We definitely won't take anything personal.  Ultimately this is about making money and performance which we have dedicated our time to specialize in.  You have to at least respect that.

Thanks for trying us out!

-Chris

jd

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Re: Lending Club Portfolio Score
« Reply #32 on: February 14, 2018, 02:56:12 PM »
Quote
Reminds me of the old TV show "The Prisoner".  I'm sure I'm quoting badly, but the intro goes something like this...
Prisoner: Who is number one?
Detached voice: You are number six.
Prisoner: I'm a man, not a number!

I used to love that show.

Quote
Unless we know something about this mysterious rating system, then those numbers have no meaning. 

I can't imagine they, or any other business, would give you their formula.  I would think the results are more important than the process.

I've used nothing but LC picks since I started buying Lending Club notes. I attached a pivot of my active notes based on LC pics score/Lending Club grade (bottom).
      

So far I've only had one loan go late (which I suspect will get paid today). I've had one loan pay off early.  The weighted avg return on my account is 12.61%.

I am NOT affiliated with LC picks but their ranking system has worked for me.  I'm posting this because I have some experience with the subject of the thread. Many people on this forum have answered questions/given opinions that have helped me. Only fair I step in when I have something to add.




« Last Edit: February 14, 2018, 03:41:45 PM by jd »

Fred93

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Re: Lending Club Portfolio Score
« Reply #33 on: February 14, 2018, 09:09:26 PM »
Those are the scoring values we've correlated to account performance.

Its nice that you say that, but it doesn't mean anything unless you are more specific.   Show us some correlation.  Show us something.

Quote
I am willing to share as much as I can, and I think I've shown that especially within this thread.

No, you've shown us that you're willing to share nothing, explain nothing, never speak in quantitative terms, etc.

How about something quantitative.

RomanLegend

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Re: Lending Club Portfolio Score
« Reply #34 on: February 14, 2018, 11:45:18 PM »
Those are the scoring values we've correlated to account performance.

Its nice that you say that, but it doesn't mean anything unless you are more specific.   Show us some correlation.  Show us something.

Quote
I am willing to share as much as I can, and I think I've shown that especially within this thread.

No, you've shown us that you're willing to share nothing, explain nothing, never speak in quantitative terms, etc.

How about something quantitative.

I understand your point of view and I'll see if I can share something with more substance.  However, I think it is fair to say that I will not give you anything that could jeopardize my investment.  Give me a few days.

Also, I agree with JD that in the future, when more of a track record is established we will use the results from other investors to advertise and answer rebuttal's of questions about the software.  And not advertise the inner workings of the algorithm.  A hedge fund manager tells you the types of funds in their portfolio (maybe even the top 10 stocks), but never the true blend or how much they invest in each one.  Yet people invest with them anyways based on historical return of that fund or index.  This is no different in that regard.


BusinessCasual

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Re: Lending Club Portfolio Score
« Reply #35 on: February 15, 2018, 04:54:06 AM »
Those are the scoring values we've correlated to account performance.

Its nice that you say that, but it doesn't mean anything unless you are more specific.   Show us some correlation.  Show us something.

Quote
I am willing to share as much as I can, and I think I've shown that especially within this thread.

No, you've shown us that you're willing to share nothing, explain nothing, never speak in quantitative terms, etc.

How about something quantitative.

I understand your point of view and I'll see if I can share something with more substance.  However, I think it is fair to say that I will not give you anything that could jeopardize my investment.  Give me a few days.

Also, I agree with JD that in the future, when more of a track record is established we will use the results from other investors to advertise and answer rebuttal's of questions about the software.  And not advertise the inner workings of the algorithm.  A hedge fund manager tells you the types of funds in their portfolio (maybe even the top 10 stocks), but never the true blend or how much they invest in each one.  Yet people invest with them anyways based on historical return of that fund or index.  This is no different in that regard.

Not to argue but pretty sure hedge funds file a quarterly 13F on EDGAR that disclose their positions.

Rob L

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Re: Lending Club Portfolio Score
« Reply #36 on: February 15, 2018, 10:02:36 AM »
Sure thing.  The basic premise is that the higher the score of a note the less likely the loan is to default (we've shown <2% default rate).  What we've derived is that if you invest in only loans with a score of 66+ you can easily get ANAR of 9.7%+.  We've seen as high as 12.5% but 9%-10% seems to be very repeatable.

Please understand that for me and I suspect others that have been at this for a few years your claim appears simply too good to be true. However ANAR by itself provides little information without also knowing weighted average portfolio age. Charge offs don't even start until the fifth month of a loan. Young portfolios always have high ANAR that drops over time (particularly if payments are not reinvested). If both 36 and 60 month loans are included in a portfolio then weighted average term (or better yet separate portfolios by term) is also needed to gauge performance. I don't think anyone wants to look into your black box, just better understand your performance projections and their basis.

rawraw

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Re: Lending Club Portfolio Score
« Reply #37 on: February 15, 2018, 06:11:07 PM »
Hasn't this user posted about similar topics in the past? Name seems familiar

nonattender

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Re: Lending Club Portfolio Score
« Reply #38 on: February 17, 2018, 02:58:34 PM »
Sure thing.  The basic premise is that the higher the score of a note the less likely the loan is to default (we've shown <2% default rate).  What we've derived is that if you invest in only loans with a score of 66+ you can easily get ANAR of 9.7%+.  We've seen as high as 12.5% but 9%-10% seems to be very repeatable.

Please understand that for me and I suspect others that have been at this for a few years...

I believe that he understood that part... :)

(I give him a 95/100 for "data extraction.")
A little nonsense now and then is relished by the wisest men.