Author Topic: daily spend?  (Read 2744 times)

mikedev10

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daily spend?
« on: January 08, 2019, 05:15:22 PM »
how much are you guys spending daily with your bots?  i actually thought mine was going pretty slow buying 3-4 things a day.  my report queries are jacked so i'm working on them now, nonetheless, my bot appeared to...  spend vastly more than that when i left it alone, which leads me to believe i may have naively bought a bunch of stuff that isn't all that hot.  so i'm curious if anyone is willing to share how much spend they do on a typical day in this market.

Rob L

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Re: daily spend?
« Reply #1 on: January 08, 2019, 06:02:17 PM »
Zero; lol  :)
I'm on my way out and don't much look at this stuff any more.
I'm the proud owner of a bunch of risky D E notes. LC threw me under the bus, selling to anyone with a pulse.
I bought and my bad I didn't see it sooner. Sound familiar? Gee "We promise we won't do that again". Now they got religion.
Right. Once burned shame on them; there won't be a twice.

mikedev10

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Re: daily spend?
« Reply #2 on: January 08, 2019, 06:11:21 PM »
Zero; lol  :)
I'm on my way out and don't much look at this stuff any more.
I'm the proud owner of a bunch of risky D E notes. LC threw me under the bus, selling to anyone with a pulse.
I bought and my bad I didn't see it sooner. Sound familiar? Gee "We promise we won't do that again". Now they got religion.
Right. Once burned shame on them; there won't be a twice.

so, if i understand you correctly, you think did a poorer job than they should have with the original loan origination, and that these D's should have been E's and E's should have been denied kind of thing?

Rob L

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Re: daily spend?
« Reply #3 on: January 08, 2019, 09:36:13 PM »
Zero; lol  :)
I'm on my way out and don't much look at this stuff any more.
I'm the proud owner of a bunch of risky D E notes. LC threw me under the bus, selling to anyone with a pulse.
I bought and my bad I didn't see it sooner. Sound familiar? Gee "We promise we won't do that again". Now they got religion.
Right. Once burned shame on them; there won't be a twice.

so, if i understand you correctly, you think did a poorer job than they should have with the original loan origination, and that these D's should have been E's and E's should have been denied kind of thing?

Yeah. LC loosened its underwriting standards and we lenders of higher risk notes took the hit. IMHO LC profited from increased originations at lenders (my) expense. My thinking at the time was that there are always borrowers but lenders once burnt will leave forever. So it wasn't in LC's best interest to do that. I was dead wrong and I don't think it was an accident. Maybe things are better for lenders now or so I hear. Great, but I'm not hanging around for them to decide to throw lenders under the bus again. They lost my trust.

Fred93

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Re: daily spend?
« Reply #4 on: January 09, 2019, 01:23:40 AM »
how much are you guys spending daily with your bots?

Over 3.1 years, I have bought 18243 notes on the secondary market.
That's about 5884/year, or about 16/day average.

The number of successful buy orders is about 20% higher, because about 20% of successful buy orders are subsequently cancelled due to incoming payment, and therefore don't result in a note appearing in your account.

Rob L

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Re: daily spend?
« Reply #5 on: January 09, 2019, 10:08:12 AM »
how much are you guys spending daily with your bots?

Over 3.1 years, I have bought 18243 notes on the secondary market.
That's about 5884/year, or about 16/day average.

The number of successful buy orders is about 20% higher, because about 20% of successful buy orders are subsequently cancelled due to incoming payment, and therefore don't result in a note appearing in your account.

Just out of curiosity how many have you sold? Do you essentially plan to hold them to term though I figure you list them all at a price higher than your assessment of their value and hope for a buyer that disagrees?

mikedev10

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Re: daily spend?
« Reply #6 on: January 09, 2019, 10:32:08 AM »
how much are you guys spending daily with your bots?

Over 3.1 years, I have bought 18243 notes on the secondary market.
That's about 5884/year, or about 16/day average.

The number of successful buy orders is about 20% higher, because about 20% of successful buy orders are subsequently cancelled due to incoming payment, and therefore don't result in a note appearing in your account.

Just out of curiosity how many have you sold? Do you essentially plan to hold them to term though I figure you list them all at a price higher than your assessment of their value and hope for a buyer that disagrees?

is holding atypical?  i planned on holding mine to maturity.

Zero; lol  :)
I'm on my way out and don't much look at this stuff any more.
I'm the proud owner of a bunch of risky D E notes. LC threw me under the bus, selling to anyone with a pulse.
I bought and my bad I didn't see it sooner. Sound familiar? Gee "We promise we won't do that again". Now they got religion.
Right. Once burned shame on them; there won't be a twice.

so, if i understand you correctly, you think did a poorer job than they should have with the original loan origination, and that these D's should have been E's and E's should have been denied kind of thing?

Yeah. LC loosened its underwriting standards and we lenders of higher risk notes took the hit. IMHO LC profited from increased originations at lenders (my) expense. My thinking at the time was that there are always borrowers but lenders once burnt will leave forever. So it wasn't in LC's best interest to do that. I was dead wrong and I don't think it was an accident. Maybe things are better for lenders now or so I hear. Great, but I'm not hanging around for them to decide to throw lenders under the bus again. They lost my trust.

if you are interested, give me a list of some loan IDs and i will tell you what my engine thinks of them on a scale of 0-10, although if they are D loans of course nobody is gonna hit the high marks :)

Fred93

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Re: daily spend?
« Reply #7 on: January 09, 2019, 03:20:49 PM »
Just out of curiosity how many have you sold? Do you essentially plan to hold them to term though

I don't sell them. 


Quote
I figure you list them all at a price higher than your assessment of their value and hope for a buyer that disagrees?

I don't play that game.  Not worth the effort.  The trading volume on the secondary market is very low. 

Rob L

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Re: daily spend?
« Reply #8 on: January 09, 2019, 08:48:02 PM »
Just out of curiosity how many have you sold? Do you essentially plan to hold them to term though

I don't sell them. 


Quote
I figure you list them all at a price higher than your assessment of their value and hope for a buyer that disagrees?

I don't play that game.  Not worth the effort.  The trading volume on the secondary market is very low.

Thanks for the reply!

Very interesting. Perhaps you can find the time someday to post how well this has performed for you. It would be an interesting story and you may be a true Unicorn in this arena. After Fred (not you Fred93 but just Fred) left the FOLIO game I figured there wasn't enough profit opportunity to make it worth while. Greener pastures and all that. I believe that was his assessment. Not a game I ever intended to play myself anyway. Fred always struck me as someone exceptionally savvy and talented and I'm sure you agree. Not a name you wanted to see on the other side of your trades. Maybe his departure opened a door of additional profitability for others and maybe times are better now.

Fred93

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Re: daily spend?
« Reply #9 on: January 10, 2019, 07:04:11 PM »
Perhaps you can find the time someday to post how well this has performed for you.

It has performed a little better than my buying of new notes, but not much better.  LC let me have a 2nd account so I can keep the notes I've bought on the secondary market separate from the notes I buy on the primary market, so its easy to see how I'm doing...



It has an additional problem tho.  The secondary market is so small that I haven't been able to invest as much as I have wanted to invest.  If you used the amount of money I initially allocated as the divisor, rather than the amount actually invested (as is used in the ANAR calculation), you'd get a much smaller looking return.

So the opportunity has been much smaller (in size) than I had hoped.  However, once I spent the effort to figure out what I wanted to do (I'm pretty selective, only targeting a small fraction of the credit variable space), wrote the code, debugged it (figured out the horribly deficient documentation -- this interface has lots of quirks), there was relatively little effort to let it run.  Its been running every day, 24 hr/day since late 2016.  As long as it continues to perform reasonably, I let it run.  I have made some adjustments to criteria as some things have become apparent.  For example I require a higher YTM for some loan vintages, just following the performance data. 

As long as it performs better than my buy-new-and-hold account I'll leave it running.

I get only a small fraction of the notes I bid on.  Someone else gets in ahead of me a significant fraction of the time.  I haven't calculated the ratio lately.  This means there must be several other people doing something very similar, bidding on the same notes I'm bidding on, and doing it all day every day in a similar automated fashion.

Rob L

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Re: daily spend?
« Reply #10 on: January 11, 2019, 10:56:11 AM »
Once again thanks for the very interesting reply! Nice work and impressive returns. Congratulations.
Seems that there's considerable competition for a rather small pie.

You may find it interesting that a few years ago (pre-IPO) I PM'd Core about his Folio investments. I'm pretty sure he was trading rather than holding but maybe both. I asked him if he had enough money to fully fund his system or was funds constrained. My thought was to perhaps find a win-win situation where I would provide additional money if he were funds constrained for a share of the profits. His reply was that he was not funds constrained and was able to execute all trades he deemed profitable. His assessment was that the market just wasn't big enough (given his trading method of course). IIRC his exact words were "there's only so many dollars you can take out of this pit".  :)

jheizer

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Re: daily spend?
« Reply #11 on: January 11, 2019, 11:56:16 AM »
Back in 2016 I would have been fighting you.  My setup was pretty efficient back then ignoring all the off to payment notes buying every 5 minutes or so.  But I only bought like 500 in the end so unnoticeable probably.
Replacement to P2P Quant's Percentile Tool http://lc.geekminute.com

mikedev10

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Re: daily spend?
« Reply #12 on: January 11, 2019, 03:56:02 PM »
It has performed a little better than my buying of new notes, but not much better.  LC let me have a 2nd account so I can keep the notes I've bought on the secondary market separate from the notes I buy on the primary market, so its easy to see how I'm doing...

is that atypical?  i was thinking for tax advantages alone i might open up another account as a roth one and move some money into it.

Quote


It has an additional problem tho.  The secondary market is so small that I haven't been able to invest as much as I have wanted to invest.  If you used the amount of money I initially allocated as the divisor, rather than the amount actually invested (as is used in the ANAR calculation), you'd get a much smaller looking return.

so is this number completely untrustworthy?  i asked before but didn't pursue anything about using a spreadsheet to more properly try to account for returns.  suppose i should be a bit less lazy chasing that down...

Once again thanks for the very interesting reply! Nice work and impressive returns. Congratulations.
Seems that there's considerable competition for a rather small pie.

You may find it interesting that a few years ago (pre-IPO) I PM'd Core about his Folio investments. I'm pretty sure he was trading rather than holding but maybe both. I asked him if he had enough money to fully fund his system or was funds constrained. My thought was to perhaps find a win-win situation where I would provide additional money if he were funds constrained for a share of the profits. His reply was that he was not funds constrained and was able to execute all trades he deemed profitable. His assessment was that the market just wasn't big enough (given his trading method of course). IIRC his exact words were "there's only so many dollars you can take out of this pit".  :)

i am curious how much of this do you consider a pit?  :)  i assume lendingclub is large enough and people liquidate accounts which are large enough that promising notes do end up popping into this market.

i made a mistake during my development and bought a good 3k in 48 hours which were not loans i disliked overall but may have too little yield for the risk, hoping things turn out ok, although i assume everyone on here is going to say "oh god no" their couldn't have possibly been that many good loans so i am a bit worried on that one.  i'm still working on what i'd actually like to buy a day but now it's looking more like 10 loans stuffing 25 or less into them.

Back in 2016 I would have been fighting you.  My setup was pretty efficient back then ignoring all the off to payment notes buying every 5 minutes or so.  But I only bought like 500 in the end so unnoticeable probably.

i think my bot is more expensive to run than many and am using a couple cloud services, i like how it is picking, but if i ran it every 5 minutes i think it would cost me more pennies than the pennies i'm generally hoping to pick up!


dr.everett

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Re: daily spend?
« Reply #13 on: January 11, 2019, 05:06:16 PM »
Speaking from the standpoint of someone that had 2 large accounts and has now been departed for a year- I don't think you're going to find too many large accounts still liquidating.

Most of "us" left closer to 2 years ago when the chargeoffs started spiking and then there were all the ethics things and bad loan underwriting surfaced which caused LaPlanche to be fired.

There are people letting their accounts run off, people like me that sold slowly at reasonable discounts so as not to take significant losses, fire sales, and a few dumpster fires. ;)

I think that pretty well sums it up.

Rob L

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Re: daily spend?
« Reply #14 on: January 12, 2019, 10:02:28 AM »
i am curious how much of this do you consider a pit?  :)  i assume lendingclub is large enough and people liquidate accounts which are large enough that promising notes do end up popping into this market.

Core was using the term "pit" to refer to the old style open outcry trading "pits" for futures and options in Chicago (CBOT, MERC, CBOE) and New York (NYME). Mostly these pits are all gone; replaced by computers but a few remain. A colorful bygone era. In that sense the whole of FOLIO is a computerized pit.