Author Topic: Expected and stated yield to maturity (annualized).  (Read 5150 times)

Keltset

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Expected and stated yield to maturity (annualized).
« on: February 17, 2013, 09:09:46 PM »
I would love to see information that shows the lending club interest rate and the models expected yield rate prior to 'making my pick' and being redirected to lending club.  I think this information has good value to allow an investor to pick when and how to enter the market without added addition cost to make the pick. I love the pricing model and would like to see some helpful information before the pick is made without greatly limiting the ability for the site to produce the commission costs that it should. In addition I would not mind seeing the category of the loan (debt consolidation etc...) but this has less value to me if I have enough faith in the model already.

brycemason

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Re: Expected and stated yield to maturity (annualized).
« Reply #1 on: February 18, 2013, 10:06:10 PM »
A fair enough criticism. This was operationalized by the "Top" column, with the 1% picks being in the historical top 1% of expected yield, and so on. However, in reality, anything in the top 10% I've found performs about equally. Honestly, I'm considering dropping the "Top" column anyway.

Just as you are unbothered by the loan purpose going undisplayed, so should you be unbothered by the absence of interest rate and expected yield. The model already compares the interest rate vs. the risk, and identifies those in the historical top 10% of risk vs. reward. If loan quality was consistently horrible across the platform, the model would not identify any picks (and you could unsubscribe).

That said, I will take under consideration the inclusion of the stated interest rate / expected default (as LC does, but with my own model). Eager to hear from others about this.



Keltset

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Re: Expected and stated yield to maturity (annualized).
« Reply #2 on: February 18, 2013, 11:18:41 PM »
I hear ya, and I think you are probably correct. I think it's more of a visualization that makes it easier to move forward in reality. You are probably correct that the value is in reality meaningless from LC's side- I do see how there could be value within your own model. Perhaps I just need to have more comfort it in and build a decent portfolio with it. I do suspect your model is of very high quality and can't wait to start comparing your model's performance over my own.

brycemason

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Re: Expected and stated yield to maturity (annualized).
« Reply #3 on: February 18, 2013, 11:50:28 PM »
"The perfect is the enemy of the good."
"Dit que le mieux est l'ennemi du bien." --Voltaire

Something to keep in mind is that I'm trying to offer people above average returns, but also do it at scale. It's not worth it (except perhaps as a hobby otherwise) unless I can support 200+ subscribers and in a way that they can invest their capital quickly. So, being extremely parsimonious might get one better returns, but it's hard to scale up to more people and get capital to work. The audience I'm trying to target is "help me do better than I probably would otherwise, help me do it quickly, and reduce my effort." This asset class is tedious right now, and although I might be able to do better (yield) with some model adjustments, I'd be waiting too long for those perfect criteria to materialize.